Chris Mason: Tory gloom ahead of triple by-election test
- Published
- comments
Frome is the largest town in the rural constituency of Somerton and Frome
On Thursday Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces a triple by-election test, after three of his own MPs stood down. BBC political editor Chris Mason has visited each area to find out what activists and voters think of the parties' chances.
"We are going to lose them all horribly."
Political parties like to manage expectations before elections. In other words, talk down their chances. But there is no mistaking the gloom in senior Conservative circles about the three contests to become an MP in different corners of England.
Each race is fascinating because each offers an insight into the different varieties of race that will help shape the outcome of the next general election, expected next year.
I have been to North Yorkshire, to Somerset and to west London to talk to voters. And I have talked to senior campaigners from the main parties too.
And yes, there aren't many optimistic Tories.
"Why would you go out and vote for us, right now? What is the incentive? The incentive is to give us a kicking, because these contests aren't about picking a government," one minister tells me.
Another Tory figure is even more blunt.
"Of course we are going to lose. In one it is about lies. The other about drugs. And the third about not getting a peerage. How do you defend any of that?"
They are referring to the former MPs Boris Johnson, David Warburton and Nigel Adams respectively.
The Conservative pessimism is matched by a broadly chipper mood among Labour activists in both Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Selby and Ainsty, and Liberal Democrats in Somerton and Frome.
In all three spots, there is a recurring theme to the issues that matter.
Firstly, the cost of living. One mum pushing a buggy through the streets of Frome told me she thinks twice before putting the kettle on, knowing the spiralling cost of her bills.
It was no different in Selby or in Uxbridge.
Spiralling prices and what several people described as an economic "crisis" - for their budgets, and the wider country.
The NHS too is a uniting topic from rural Somerset and North Yorkshire to the north-west London suburbs. Interminable waits at A&E. The difficulty getting an appointment with the doctor. The difficulty even getting registered with an NHS dentist.
But let's examine each contest individually - as they each offer an insight into a crucial tussle come the general election expected next year.
Firstly, to Somerton and Frome.
It is the latest case study in the re-emergence of a political rivalry that had gone rather quiet. And the south west of England is where it is perhaps at its keenest.
The Conservatives versus the Liberal Democrats.
For years, Cornwall, Devon and Somerset were something of a heartland for the Lib Dems. But their stint in coalition government with the Tories nearly wiped them out. It is only now that they are showing signs of recovery.
The Lib Dems now run Somerset Council. They won a by election in Tiverton and Honiton, in Devon, just over a year ago.
The party held Somerton and Frome until their near-death experience, in 2015. And they are confident they are going to win it back.
They reckon they are being well received in the villages that traditionally lean Conservative. And they are hopeful the Guardian's endorsement will help tempt Labour and Green voters to vote for them instead.
Sir Ed Davey, the party's leader, has visited the area six times.
"We are going to get absolutely smashed in Somerset," says one Tory activist, in contrast, who has campaigned there.
Selby and Ainsty has been Conservative since constituency boundaries changed in 2010
Some 240 miles from the Somerset countryside, a slice of North Yorkshire countryside. Selby and Ainsty.
This seat, on its current boundaries, is, or was, a rock solid Conservative constituency.
Beyond Selby and Tadcaster, it is a rural patch. Labour could win a general election outright and comfortably without taking a seat like this.
And yet still the Conservatives are worried it could be a goner for them.
Labour are emphasising that a win for them would amount to "the biggest majority we've overturned since the end of the Second World War" - a line which speaks to both their confidence and a splash of expectation management, in case they don't manage it.
Yes, Selby had a Labour MP as recently as when the party was last in government in 2010. But the constituency boundaries have changed since then.
A victory for Sir Keir Starmer's party here would be an astonishing achievement, but appears doable.
And so finally to west London, to Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
This is a contest that has the central figure of the politics of the last few years at its heart: one Boris Johnson. The ex-prime minister is the former MP here. His resignation triggered this by-election.
I encountered no shortage of views about Mr Johnson - from the unrepeatable to the warm, and sometimes a bit of both from one and the same person.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip has long been a Conservative seat. But Labour has been eyeing the prospect of winning here for a bit.
It is the kind of seat where the party would face awkward questions if it didn't manage to win; if it failed to turn stonking national opinion poll leads into actual votes and an actual election win.
And, crucially, taking a seat directly from the Conservatives.
But there is a twist here.
The extension of what is known as London's Ultra Low Emissions Zone, which charges the owners of the most polluting transport to drive around. Ulez, as it is known for short, provokes real anger from many here.
And its critics blame the Labour mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.
"If we lose it'll be down to Ulez," one senior Labour source told me, adding "the Tories have done a good job of trying to make it a single issue contest, and for some it's very motivational" - in other words it'll determine how some people vote.
"It's a tough seat," says another London Labour source, while claiming the importance of Ulez can be overstated compared to issues such as the cost of living.
So a super Thursday of by-elections beckons.
Not one, but a trio of contests in three different corners of England, with the capacity to make the political weather - and shape the mood of the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, as a general election edges ever closer.
You can see the full list of candidates for each constituency here:
Sign up for our morning newsletter and get BBC News in your inbox.
Related topics
- Published14 July 2023
- Published6 July 2023
