Week ahead in Parliament

Will the aftershocks of a tumultuous Westminster week reverberate through what looks like quite a humdrum end of term agenda in Parliament?

One persistent rumour is that angry Tory Brexiteers may strike back at the government by failing to turn up to a vote at some point in the week - they could, for example, go on strike during the vote on the second reading of the Mental Capacity Bill, on Tuesday, where the bill would be lost if Labour's fatal amendment is passed.

This would be an alarming signal that the government had effectively lost the ability to govern - but it would not take many Conservatives to go AWOL to ensure defeat, if things really have got that embittered.

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In an interview for Friday night's Today in Parliament on BBC Radio 4, I asked one senior Brexiteer, Mark Francois, an ex-whip, about this idea. His response? That no good whip disclosed their strategy in advance. So watch out.

In that spirit, the prime minister's statement on Monday, reporting back on the latest EU summit, will return her to her Commons Groundhog Day, assailed from all sides by her critics.

Until now the key voice has always been the DUP Leader Nigel Dodds - without his support she will not have a majority for her Brexit deal - so look out for signs that she is seeking support elsewhere, perhaps from Labour MPs who fear the consequences of a No-Deal Brexit.

Another big Brexit event will be the publication of the long-awaited Immigration white paper - and the accompanying Commons statement from the Home Secretary, Sajid Javid.

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This is probably the single most sensitive policy area arising from Brexit and the focus will be on how the home secretary balances the conflicting priorities of cutting immigration and providing workers for key industries - and he can expect both sides of the argument to be put by Conservative colleagues, as well as by opposition MPs.

And in the background there are increasing numbers of important statutory instruments being put through Parliament to prepare for the possibility of no deal; in the financial services area alone, 70 will go through between the end of October and February 2019.....

Here's my rundown of the week ahead:

Monday 17 December

The Commons begins its final week of term (2.30pm) with Education questions, but the big event will be the prime minister's report back on the latest EU summit - and any concessions she has achieved which might defuse some of the critics of her Brexit deal. Another day, another long, gruelling Commons statement for the PM.

Then MPs debate a series of motions to approve a series of regulations on online pornography, including on age verification and "Ancillary providers" - ie pornography delivered via social media. There is 90 minutes set aside to discuss each of these orders, and the result may be an unusually substantial debate.

My committee pick is Public Accounts Committee hearing on the Windrush generation and the Home Office (4pm).

Since the PAC mandate is to examine the effectiveness and efficiency with which policy is implemented, this hearing will not carry the emotional charge that this issue would bring to an inquiry by another select committee - but the officials and lawyers due to give evidence can expect a searching interrogation about how well they have performed their roles.

Meanwhile, increasingly important business is being done in obscure bodies called Delegated Legislation Committees. It all sounds horribly technical and bureaucratic but at 4.30pm the First Delegated Legislation Committee is discussing something called the Draft Markets in Financial Instruments (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2018 - this turns out to be something like 30,000 pages of financial regulations which will have to be in place to keep the financial services industry running, in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

They cover things like the concept of "best execution" the requirement for the industry to secure the best price for their clients when selling shares. Labour wanted this debated on the floor of the Commons, arguing that it is simply too sprawling to be dealt with off-stage in a committee, but the government is not keen.

And a little later, down the corridor, the Tenth DLC is discussing the Draft Gaming Machines (miscellaneous amendments and revocation) order, which looks suspiciously like the legal mechanism for implementing the government's retreat on Fixed Odds Betting Terminals. You will remember that the Sports Minister Tracy Crouch resigned over the slowness with which they were acting to remove FOBTs from the High Street.

In the Lords (2.30pm) the normal half hour of questions to ministers is followed by a debate on the Privileges and Conduct Select Committee's Further Report on the conduct of Lord Lester of Herne Hill - this antiseptic title hardly does justice to the angst around this subject.

The Further Report is an eviscerating rebuttal of the arguments used to reject the previous report on the sexual harassment allegations against the former Lib Dem peer (he resigned the party whip).

The rejection was based on the argument that the woman who made the complaint should have been cross examined - the committee's retort is worth quoting: "In arriving at this conclusion, we reflected on the cogent argument of Lord Lester himself in this House in 2009 in a case where the lawyers for Lord Taylor of Blackburn argued that Lord Taylor had been denied basic procedural safeguards guaranteed by domestic and international law, including the right to test the evidence against him through cross-examination. Lord Lester then argued that it was entirely misguided to say (amongst other things) that cross-examination was an essential safeguard in proceedings involving possible suspension from the House. Lord Lester was right in that case, and it is equally true of the present case."

But part of the reason this debate will be so charged is that many women peers (and a group of House of Lords staff whose letter to the committee is quoted in the report) believe the dry arguments about proper process shaded into outright misogyny - and they're furious, with a number of male peers likely to face strong criticism for their speeches in the previous debate.

I'm told a group of women peers have organised to make sure this report is approved and one will be asking if, having retired, rather than face the proposed sanctions, Lord Lester will still be allowed to come into the House and use its facilities.

After that, peers turn to the detail of the Counter-Terrorism and Border Security Bill in the second day of report stage consideration. Labour have a three-line whip on for the amendments about the Prevent programme and the proscription of terrorist organisations.

And the Green party peer, Jenny Jones, has an amendment down about not allowing journalists' material to be seized by border guards.

Tuesday 18 December

MPs open (11.30am) with Justice questions. The Ten Minute Rule Bill from Labour's Geraint Davies - the European Union (Revocation of Notification of Withdrawal) Bill - does what it says on the tin; it requires the PM to revoke Britain's Article 50 Notice of with withdrawal, unless a Brexit deal is approved by Parliament by January 21st, and the deal has been approved in a referendum.

Then MPs turn to the second reading of the Mental Capacity (Amendment) Bill, which deals with the protections and safeguards around the deprivation of cared-for people.

It has already been through the House of Lords, where extra protections and rights to raise concern were added in, but not enough, it seems, for Labour, who have put down an amendment acknowledging some improvement but still declining to give it a second reading.

In particular they complain that the bill does not do enough to deal with a "substantial backlog" of Deprivation of Liberty Safeguards Assessments. If this is pushed to a vote, the results might be interesting.

In Westminster Hall debates on Traidcraft and the future of fair trade (9.30am) and mental health support for firefighters (2.30pm) caught my eye; the latter is led by Kensington MP Emma Dent Coad, so it will undoubtedly address the consequences of the Grenfell Tower disaster for the emergency services personnel who were on the scene.

On the committee corridor, the Justice Committee (10am) hears from Lisa Osofsky, the director of the much-criticised Serious Fraud Office.

And the Defence Committee continues its inquiry into Mental Health and the Armed Forces, with evidence from one of its own members, the former army officer Johnny Mercer, and the Veterans Minister, Tobias Ellwood, another ex-army officer. The committee is increasingly concerned that veterans are waiting for a year or more for mental health treatment, in some parts of the country. Their report, due next year, looks set to be, in the words of one committee member, "a humdinger".

In the Lords (2.30pm) questions to ministers include the Conservative historian Lord Lexden continuing his campaign to clear the name of the former prime minister Sir Edward Heath - by asking whether the government has received any new information about the seven allegations against him left open at the end of Operation Conifer.

He will be pressing for a debate on a motion to convene an independent inquiry, if answers are not forthcoming.

Then comes report stage consideration of the Upskirting Bill - formally, the Voyeurism (Offences) (No. 2) Bill. This is likely to be brief with no amendments submitted at the time of writing.

Peers then turn to two statutory instruments, both with motions attached. The first is from Labour's Lord Foulkes on the Operation of Air Services SI - it expresses concern over the effect of a no-deal Brexit. The second SI has a regret motion from Labour peer Lord Beecham on non-contentious probate fees. But it also has a fatal motion from the Lib Dems on which Labour will abstain - peers find it much easier to sound warning notes against SIs than to reject them outright.

There are six further SIs, on gaming machines; accounts and reports; and statutory and third country auditors; and then three on human fertilisation and embryology, human tissue and safety of transplant organs, which will be taken as a job lot

Wednesday 19 December

The Commons day begins (11.30am) with the de facto deputy prime minister, David Lidington, taking a mini-question time in his role as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and minister for the Cabinet Office. Then comes the boss, at noon, for the final Prime Minister's Questions of 2018.

The day's Ten Minute Rule Bill from the Conservative ex-nurse, Maria Caulfield would require defibrillators to be placed in schools, leisure centres and other public facilities.

The main debates are on two motions chosen by the Backbench Business Committee - first calling on the government to produce a cumulative impact assessment of changes to disability support, and then a motion calling on the government to change the law to "provide clarity that an employers' first aid responsibilities cover both physical and mental health." Both could be pushed to a vote.

My committee pick is Treasury Committee's joint session with the Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee (2.15pm) to look at the package of measures announced in the Budget, last month, to help the High Street.

The key witness is Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride. It's another example of the increasing trend for cooperation between committees, where an issue cuts across their territories, and the resulting report (which will doubtless also draw on the HCLG Committee's parallel inquiry into the future of the high street) could carry some considerable clout.

In the Lords (3pm), peers will be discussing two private members' bills - first the detail of the Age of Criminal Responsibility Bill, proposed by the Lib Dem peer, Lord Dholakia.

This would raise the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales from 10 to 12. At the moment, children under 10 cannot be arrested or charged with a crime, while children aged between 10 and 17 are dealt with by youth courts, given different sentences if convicted, and sent to special secure centres for young people, not adult prisons. Lord Dholakia has attempted to pass similar measures in previous years.

The government line during his earlier attempts was that children of that could, mostly, distinguish between bad behaviour and serious wrong-doing, and should be held accountable for their actions. The government has also argued that the public must have confidence in the youth justice system and know that offending will be dealt with effectively.

Next, what will probably be a brief, ritual third reading for the Crossbencher Baroness Deech's Divorce (Financial Provision) Bill, which would introduce, as a fair starting point, the equal division of all the property and pensions acquired by the couple after marriage, make provision for short-term maintenance, give the flexibility to allow the marital home to be retained for the carer and children, and allow binding pre-nuptial agreements.

Then come debates on subjects chosen by backbench Conservative peers - firstly, on sports, recreation and the arts' contribution to society wellbeing, led by the former sports minister, Lord Moynihan; and secondly, on the threat of plastic to the environment and the case for improved recycling, led by Baroness Neville-Rolfe.

Thursday 20 December

It's the last day of term, when, by tradition, MPs are allowed to bring in games.....proceedings open (9.30am) with half an hour of International Trade questions, followed by Women and Equalities questions, and then the weekly Business Statement, from the Leader of the House.

The key point of interest is whether and when the government will schedule the resumption of the "Meaningful Vote" debate, on the prime minister's Brexit deal.

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The main debate will be on the UN report on the Rohingya refugee crisis, on a motion calling on the government to put pressure on the UN to prevent refugees from Myanmar being repatriated back into unsafe conditions - Conservative Anne Main and Labour MP Rushanara Ali lead proceedings,

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In an interesting move, the traditional general debate the forthcoming adjournment, in which any MP can speak about any subject, has been bumped from the Chamber to Westminster Hall - where a minister will painstakingly note down a galaxy of different issues and promise responses from the relevant ministers.

By its very nature the debate never produces a vote, and with very limited chamber time available to the Backbench Business Committee, they have clearly opted to prioritise voteable motions for chamber debate.

In the Lords (11am), question time includes the crossbench or independent peer Baroness Boycott asking ministers what steps they've taken to ensure healthy and nutritious food does not become more expensive after Brexit.

Then there are balloted debates on subjects chosen by backbench peers.

First, Lord Sheikh on the Impact of Islamophobia in the UK; the second Lord Campbell-Savours on the remit and arrangements for handling of evidence by the independent inquiry into child sexual abuse. The lunch time mini debate led by Lord Berkeley is on the tendering process for the building of five new Type 31e frigates and the impact on the Appledore Shipyard.

Then, unless plans change, and they might, Honourable Members and Noble Lords depart for the Christmas break - and will return on Monday 7 January.