Covid in Scotland: Are more children being admitted to hospital?
- Published
Ten children under nine years old were in Scottish hospitals last week being treated for Covid illness, according to the Scottish government.
Although children are much less likely to become seriously ill with Covid, we know that some do become sick and require treatment.
Covid Recovery Minister John Swinney said relatively few children had been admitted to hospital in Scotland for Covid over the last 14 months, but told BBC Scotland current numbers were "on the high side".
So, what do we know about hospital admissions in the under-17s over the course of the pandemic?
Admissions have been falling since mid-April
Public Health Scotland (PHS) publishes weekly figures on the numbers of children being admitted to hospital, external with a positive test for Covid.
It's worth noting that these admissions are not necessarily to treat Covid-related illness. A child might be admitted to hospital with a broken arm, but will be recorded in the figures if they test positive for Covid.
The figures also don't tell us how many children are currently being treated for a Covid-related illness in Scotland.
But we can see that at the peak of the second wave in January, on average about 12 children a week were being admitted to hospital with a positive test for Covid.
This figure dropped to two in the week up to 21 May - the last week data is available for.
It's the lowest number of admissions recorded since September, when the second wave was starting to build.
The big question here is what the figures don't tell you.
The paediatricians I've been speaking to say they don't believe there is any cause for alarm. There are lots of reasons why we might have seen a small increase.
Kids are back doing more activities now - with an increased risk of bumps or broken bones putting them in hospital. Other children might be in for routine operations delayed by the pandemic.
And with more coronavirus spreading in the community again, and widespread testing, some of these children admitted for other reasons might test positive in hospital, even with no symptoms.
It is useful to look more closely at the factors behind this just in case the new variant is playing a role, or to gather broader information on whether vaccinating children would be beneficial in the future.
It takes time to get the relevant ethical permission to examine medical records in detail and so it's likely to be a few months before we can see if any patterns emerge.
For now, this could be a useful reminder from politicians that Covid has not gone away and that parents should be encouraged to get their vaccine.
Covid hospital admissions are overwhelmingly in older age groups
We can use other PHS figures on daily hospital admissions for Covid to help set a wider context.
They show us that at the peak of the second wave in December and January, there were many days when more than 150 people were being admitted to hospital a day for Covid.
There were also five days in January when more than 200 people were admitted - vastly higher than the January peak of 12 children a week.
This next chart shows the total number of admissions over the course of the pandemic in Scotland, broken down by age group.
The chart looks different when you account for the populations in each age group.
Calculating a rate per 100,000 people, the figures show that people aged 85 or over are most likely to require hospital treatment for Covid, with a rate of 3,311.
This compares with a rate of 88 for the 0-4 age group and 25 for five to 14-year-olds.
Have any young people in Scotland died with Covid?
Figures from the National Records for Scotland (NRS), external tell us that three children under the age of 14 have died with Covid during the course of the pandemic.
They are a baby girl in December 2020, a boy aged between 1-14 in February 2021 and a girl aged between 1-14 in March 2021.
There may have been other deaths of older teenagers, but we can't tell from NRS data as 15 to 18-year-olds are included in the 15-44 age group.
The NRS have recorded a total of 10,122 death certificates that mention Covid over the course of the pandemic.
So while Covid deaths in children do sadly occur, they are very rare.
What are experts in children's health saying?
Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health said it was not seeing any evidence of an increase in paediatric admissions with Covid-19.
Dr Steve Turner, the college's registrar and consultant paediatrician at Royal Aberdeen Children's Hospital, said: "A very small number of admissions who test positive for Covid is what we'd expect.
"Our experience over the last 15 months is that many children who test positive have come in to hospital for something else, e.g. broken bones.
"At the moment the situation in the UK is stable. The number of children in hospital with Covid remains very low. Children's wards are not seeing a rise in cases with Covid. Parents shouldn't worry."
What does the Scottish government say?
A Scottish government spokesman said: "For the children who have been hospitalised, and their families, this will clearly be a worrying time but our NHS will deliver them the best care possible.
"With PHS we continue to monitor the numbers of patients hospitalised and who have tested positive for Covid-19.
"PHS are now working to publish data on the age ranges of those hospitalised on either a weekly or daily basis, in addition to the data they already publish on this issue.
"As the effect of the vaccine is felt there has been an expected increase in the proportion of hospitalisations that are from younger age groups - as older age groups who are most at risk from serious consequences from the virus have increased protection as a result of vaccination.
"Levels of Covid-19 in the community are markedly lower than at the turn of the year which has the welcome result that overall hospitalisation has reduced since that point."
- Published13 January 2023
- Published3 June 2021
