Furlough end had little impact on jobless figures

The end of furlough on 30 September only had a small impact on unemployment, early estimates show.

Figures for October show the number of people in Scotland in payrolled employment was higher than the month before the Covid pandemic began.

The HMRC statistics show there were 2.39 million payrolled employees last month, up 0.1% on February 2020.

Across the UK, the number of payrolled employees increased by 0.8% over the same period.

As soon as furlough began, its end was feared. By September, more than a million people in the UK were still on it, more than 100,000 in Scotland.

Yet the early indications from the ONS suggest the fears of a surge in unemployment were misplaced.

Why? Partly because those coming off furlough met a record level of job vacancies.

It may also be that people who were working part-time and getting part of their pay through furlough have shifted to part-time work permanently - though there has not been a significant rise in the numbers who would prefer to be full-time.

It may also be that people remained on furlough instead of retiring. It may have paid them better than their pensions would, and they have quietly left the workforce.

Other figures from the ONS and HMRC data show very surprising factors for an economy that is coming out of such a deep recession.

People counted as 'seeking work' in July to September were not doing so because they had been made redundant. There is no sign of an uptick in redundancies. This is a time when employers mainly want to hang on to staff.

Instead, there's been a surge in the numbers leaving jobs to get other jobs - either ones they prefer, that pay better or are more flexible.

Claimant Count

Other figures in the latest ONS (Office for National Statistics) report show a decrease in unemployment in October, down 1.3% from the previous month.

The experimental Claimant Count includes Jobseeker's Allowance Claimants and those claimants of Universal Credit who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed.

• Jobs recovery continues despite end of furlough

It shows there were 157,100 claimants in Scotland, a decrease of 2,100 over the month but an increase of 44,000 (38.9%) since March 2020.

The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates for July to September 2021 indicate that over the quarter the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2%.

The estimated unemployment rate in Scotland was 4.1%, up 0.3% since the three months before the pandemic.

Scotland's unemployment rate was below the UK rate of 4.3%.

The estimated employment rate, the proportion of people aged 16-64 in work in Scotland, was 74.8%, down 0.6% since the pandemic began.