Covid in Scotland: Warning of passport extension or more restrictions

Scotland is facing a choice between extending the vaccine passport scheme and lockdown-style restrictions, the Scottish government has said.

A final decision on whether to extend certification will be made on Tuesday.

But a new evidence paper claims that to "suppress the virus further" there is a choice between limiting social contacts or requiring passports at more hospitality venues.

Any extension to the scheme would start on 6 December.

Covid case numbers are currently much lower than during the most recent peak in August, but they have been slowly climbing again in recent weeks.

The Scottish government is worried about the impact this could have on the NHS over winter.

Cinemas, theatres and cafes could be among the venues affected by tougher rules which they claim would have a "devastating impact" on business.

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The Scottish government evidence paper on vaccine certification states: "To suppress the virus further we are now faced with a choice.

"This is to limit social contacts and the risk of infection by limiting social contacts by closing venues, limiting group sizes and advising people not to meet each other.

"Alternatively we can enable people to meet up in a lower risk way by using certification to reduce the risk that an infectious person will be present in a higher risk setting."

The Scottish government says there have been more than 1.5m downloads of the NHS Covid status app so far

The Scottish government is also considering whether a negative lateral flow Covid test result could be provided instead of proof of vaccination, as happens in most other countries that have introduced vaccine passports.

The paper says this "has advantages" but warns these types of tests "have limitations regarding their sensitivity".

In addition, the paper states a "significant number of businesses and organisations" would be affected by any extension of the scheme, primarily through extra costs.

Employing and training more staff and supplying hardware to scan the passports were highlighted as potential cost factors, alongside a loss in revenue from cancelled tickets to events and customers choosing to go somewhere a passport is not required.

But the report claims the costs incurred would be better than the alternative - which could see the return of restrictions or even closure because of a Covid-induced lockdown.

'It may convince those who are currently indifferent'

The paper also suggests that research evidence "indicates including a wider range of settings may increase the usefulness of certification as a measure to reduce infection".

It adds: "Wider international evidence suggests that expanding the settings included in any certification scheme may encourage older individuals who are not yet vaccinated to take up the vaccine.

"While certification is unlikely to convince the most vaccine hesitant to be vaccinated, it may convince those who are currently indifferent."

Introduced in October, the current passport scheme only applies to nightclubs and major events such as concerts and football matches.

Cinemas could be among the venues affected by any extension of the vaccine passport scheme

Scottish ministers said at the time of the scheme's launch that its purpose was to drive up vaccination rates among younger people.

The Scottish government paper states the current scheme has "likely contributed to a small rise in vaccinations amongst the younger age group".

Deputy First Minister John Swinney said: "With cases rising gradually and pressures on our NHS, our approach is to keep people safe and get through a challenging winter without having to re-introduce any restrictions.

"Our vaccine certification scheme is working well, with venues and events affected continuing to operate and more than 1.5 million downloads of the NHS Covid status app so far.

"We want businesses to remain open throughout the Christmas period so it is sensible to consider options available to expand Covid certification."

'Failed to provide concrete proof'

But Scottish Conservative Covid recovery spokesman, Murdo Fraser MSP, said: "John Swinney continues to insists that the SNP's vaccine certification scheme is working well, yet in almost 70 pages of their so-called evidence document, the SNP government have failed to provide concrete proof of the scheme's effectiveness.

"In contrast, the devastating impact on businesses is all too clear.

"The SNP government has admitted that night-time venues have faced significant trade losses, rising costs and increased abuse of staff as a result of the existing scheme. Yet they are still considering extending the requirements to over 17,000 additional businesses."

BBC Scotland is keen to hear what questions you have about vaccine passports.

The Scottish government's scheme came into effect in October, and on Tuesday the first minister will announce whether the scheme is to be expanded.

Any changes would come into effect on 6 December. It could extend the scheme to indoor cinemas, theatres and some other licensed and hospitality premises.

Until now, the scheme has covered nightclubs and large events.

So, if there's something you'd like to know about the scheme then fill in the form below to send us your question.

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