Will Scotland see a white Christmas this year?
- Published
Will it be a white Christmas in Scotland? BBC Scotland Weather's Christopher Blanchett gives the latest forecast.
It's the question we get asked without fail every year. Will it be a white Christmas?
Spoiler alert: we don't know yet. At least not with any certainty.
For the big day to be classed as an "official" white Christmas, just one snowflake has to be observed within the 24 hour period - and it happens quite a lot.
It used to be the case that a single location was used for keeping watch and recording any solitary flakes.
But nowadays there are all sorts of locations included in the count, from Edinburgh Castle to Pittodrie Stadium, home of Aberdeen FC.
Aberdeen FC's Pittodrie Stadium is just one of the locations used to measure a white Christmas
Since 1960, more than 50% of Christmases have been classified as white.
2022 was one of them, though no stations recorded any lying snow, 9% recorded falling snow.
But let's face it, a single snowflake is a rather unconvincing reality.
It certainly doesn't match those the snowy Dickensian scenes plastered on greetings cards, fake snow sprayed onto shop windows or streaming service Christmas movies.
If you want the sort of snow dumps Bing Crosby dreamed of, carpeting the streets and crunching underfoot, well that's much more of a rarity.
Widespread lying snow is the classification where more than 40% of recording stations in the UK see it on the ground.
The last time that happened was 2010. We are more likely to see significant snow later in winter, through late January and into February or even early March - Christmas is right at the start of winter, which doesn't help.
However, here in Scotland we are best-placed to see any potential snow on offer, more so than elsewhere in the UK.
Snow thank you: Beware early forecast claims
Many publications, newspapers, blogs and enthusiasts can get very excited about the prospect of snow.
Anyone proclaiming to tell you the "exact time snow will fall" in the weeks leading up to Christmas has been on Santa's sherry a little early.
Braemar woke up to a good covering of Christmas snow in 2021
Weather forecasting is a complex, changing and often times frustrating business. The big numerical weather prediction models that are used to gain an idea of forthcoming weather patterns are run multiple times a day, every day. Sometimes they give a clear indication of a general trend, other times they're more divergent.
One model run may suggest copious snowfall, then 12 hours later it's the complete opposite. We are forecasting the future after all.
The closer you get to the day in question, the greater the chance of being correct, which is backed up by all the different models hopefully in agreement and saying the same sort of thing. Patience really is a virtue.
What about Christmas 2023?
The week ahead will see a colder spell set in around Thursday to Saturday, with the chance of some wintry showers and snow to low levels on occasion - and that may prove tricky for anyone travelling cross-country before the weekend.
Beyond that, there is still disagreement between the various weather models we use regarding exactly what will happen.
It is likely Christmas will be white, at least technically, but as we've covered, that's not a green light to dust off the sledge. Showers in December across northern Scotland can often be wintry. Remember it's just a single flake needed, perhaps mixed in with some rain and sleet.
The general picture at this stage, just under a week out, is that we're expecting the UK to be wedged along a boundary of high pressure and milder air to the south west, with low pressure and colder air to the north or north east.
Over the festive period, it looks as though there will be more of an Atlantic influence - so rain and average or above average temperatures. Though cold incursions from the north mean we could still see some wintry weather at times.
The air mass chart in the run up to Christmas shows cold air tantalisingly close to the north
We're keeping a close eye on the detail, as the weather models run time and time again. BBC Scotland weather will keep you updated in the coming days.
Hogmanay - party perfect or winter washout?
Snow-mantic visions aside, Christmas is often a time when people are frantically trying to get somewhere else and many have to travel.
Early indications suggest Hogmanay street parties could see unsettled weather
The general outlook beyond Christmas and towards Hogmanay, is for a rather unsettled picture with spells of wind and rain likely.
Don't write off that street party just yet though. We just need to be patient.