Diverging in the wrong direction
- Published
The divergent paths of the Scottish and UK jobs market are mirrored by other indicators we've had in recent days.
The Purchasing Managers Index, one of the best guides to private sector behaviour, showed output down in September, and new orders were down too.
On the positive side, managers told the Bank of Scotland survey they are continuing to recruit.
Whisky and engineering led the way down in manufacturing exports during the second quarter of this year. That has a lot to do with troubled emerging markets, a strong pound and the global problems for the oil and gas industry.
The most recent figures for total output from the economy, external, covering April to June, were barely into positive territory, and far behind those of the UK as a whole.
As I noted last week, if it weren't for construction, another quarter like that and we'd be in recession.
Take-off or hard landing?
We also learned from the Office for National Statistics that house prices in Scotland were down 0.9%, external in the year to August, while English ones rose 5.6%. Even outside the heated south-east, English prices were up more than 4%. (A reminder: falling house prices are bad for owners, good for buyers and renters.)
Some indicators are on the up.
Airport passenger numbers have continued to rise, though Aberdeen's fell sharply last month, despite the huge Offshore Europe event - down 6.2% while helicopter movements fell 14%.
One reckoning is that those who benefit from lower oil prices - energy intensive industries as well as car-owning households - are yet to feed that through in boosts to investment and to consumer spending. It's worth noting that many of the numbers cover what was happening several months ago, so things may already be different.
With average pay (across the UK) up by 3% in the latest ONS figures, and with prices falling by 0.1% on lower energy and food costs, that ought also to boost the feelgood factor.
But if that lagging effect does not feed through in the next few months, Scotland's sluggish, if not stalled economy could become a more prominent issue in next year's Holyrood elections.