Scotland's skills: Are they unfit for the future?

• Scottish ministers commissioned a report into the skills and training system. Seven months later, its author has handed them a harsh judgement and a huge challenge.

• It calls for a "ruthless focus" on users of the system, implying a ruthless shift away from those who defend the current system, with a major shake-up of attitudes to qualifications and of government agencies.

If you've recently spent time with someone in their late teens, trying to chart their future education and training, you'll probably sympathise with James Withers and his son, going into his final year at school.

Perhaps it's because there's so much choice. There may never have been a better time to be a job-seeker.

But as James Withers and Son discovered, when he was asked to report back to Scottish ministers on the "skills landscape", it doesn't always feel that way. It's more likely to be an alphabet soup of acronyms, and public agencies that look like they ought to be some help but... well, they just aren't.

Choosing courses and what are officially known as "positive destinations" - that is, having something to do after leaving school - tends towards going to university if you can. That's not only Mr Withers' view: you can overhear that discussion anywhere.

Countries with a more successful track record in skilled workforces have a more balanced approach to what we tend to call vocational skills, including Germany and Switzerland. Singapore offers an example in "skills mastery", in which you continue to develop skills throughout life.

But it would be "nonsense" to claim that universities provide no vocational skills, or that conventional apprenticeships are all about skills and not about deeper learning. The Withers report tells us to ditch that binary thinking, and to stop being so simplistic.

"We need a single, coherent learning system," says Withers", "not a collection of isolated and disjointed parts."

Virtual adviser

From the point of view of the service user - typically, a young person setting out into the world of work, though at the risk of neglecting others at a later stage - this holds out the prospect of harnessing the technology of algorithms to help us throughout life.

By having a coherent set of qualifications, a virtual careers assistant could be available to flag up opportunities at any age and stage for new skills, training, job moves and career development.

Imagine the dogged persistence of LinkedIn or Facebook applied to such a public sector project, continually scanning for opportunities.

So while much political and media attention was focussed on the day of this report's publication on whether there should be a 20 pence Scottish deposit scheme for drink cans and bottles, my hunch is this report could have a bigger influence on the future of Scottish people as individuals and on their economy.

And perhaps that is because the choices it sets out lie almost entirely with the Scottish government, so this does not fit comfortably into a political or media narrative of constitutional confrontation.

'Different future'

You may recall James Withers as an eloquent and passionate advocate for Scotland Food and Drink, as it steered its way through Brexit and the pandemic. He has a gift for cutting through bureaucratic language, and telling it straight.

On leaving that chief executive role, he was asked by ministers to advise them on this part of the economic transformation plan, set out under a previous first minister but still the guiding route map for the new one.

Seven months later, and with different ministers in charge, the Withers report takes quite a personal approach, with that same no-nonsense style he deployed for food and drink producers. He concludes that the current skills, training and education system is a long way from being fit for purpose.

More precisely, in his words: "The skills system is not fit for the substantially different future approaching us. We need a radical rethink or the job opportunities that arise from a changing economy risk being lost; a repeat of the 1980s".

It calls for a "ruthless" focus on those who use the system. That means ruthlessly moving away from instinctive protection of the agencies that are meant to be providing for those service users.

Across 15 recommendations for reform, the relatively easy bit calls for us all to have a different approach and attitude to learning and training: to university, college and apprenticeships: to prestige and stigma in the system.

Everyone is agreed that change is needed, it concludes, but there is no consensus on what that change should be.

'Ruthless focus'

The more difficult bit is in tearing apart and rebuilding the structures which currently exist. So the body that funds universities and colleges (the Scottish Funding Council) would be merged with the agency that funds apprentices and runs the careers service (Skills Development Scotland).

Instead of agencies, the Scottish government could take direct responsibility for skills planning at a national level, and then drive down the delivery of that to local level.

Post-school qualifications, some of which are accredited elsewhere, should rest with the successor to the Scottish Qualifications Authority - a body which has been served notice to quit, after having a bad pandemic, but is being replaced very, very slowly.

"The lack of consensus in the system means that change will not be easy. It may be uncomfortable for many people," says Withers.

"My strong advice to ministers is not to shape change based on the views of those with current delivery responsibilities. Instead, this change requires a ruthless focus on the users of the system; the people of Scotland for whom world-class lifelong learning can be the catalyst to unlock their potential and shape Scotland's economy and communities."

The focus of the report seeks to remain on the future, rather than providing a report card on what we've currently got. But even the section headings on "the current landscape", gives you that judgement.

"A landscape of tensions," it begins, and then: "Lack of strategic direction, shared narrative and measures of success".

"Complex and fragmented funding environment" is followed by "Incoherent, disjointed pathways and a failure of language."

While praising universities and colleges, the people who work in the careers service and much else besides, the verdict on the system as a whole continues to be damning.

The headings continue: "Absence of national prioritisation and regional flexibility: Inconsistency of careers advice and education: Complicated business interface and clarity of expectation from employers."

'Lack of partnership'

Skills Development Scotland (SDS) gets some of the harsher comment. The agency has a "strong internal culture", and good work with employers: "However, this spirit of collaboration is not as evident in how the organisation works with the rest of the public sector, with many other agencies commenting on the lack of partnership working."

The Scottish government agency is told that it seems to be too focused on working with employers on training initiatives (to be fair, an important part of its remit), and not enough on public service or the needs of learners.

'Truly responsive'

SDS's comment on the report avoided any direct response, focusing instead on aligning itself with the ministerial "focus on building a lifelong education and skills system that's truly responsive to future change and meets the needs of Scotland's wellbeing economy, including for industry and employers".

Chairman Frank Mitchell went on: "We will work constructively with the new minister and our partners to consider the review findings", adding in other reviews crowding in on this landscape and also worthy of consideration. In other words, the Withers report is not the only game in town.

However, the judgement on what we've got does not go further back into how we got here. And there may be lessons there.

Through the early years of the Scottish Parliament, there were repeated attempts to find the right place for the careers service and the best role for enterprise agencies. If skills are bundled with education, how do they align with another minister's responsibilities for the economy, for which they're clearly vital?

With the dawn of the Sturgeon era, there was an attempt to rationalise and simplify enterprise agencies and skills, which ended up creating a more complex "landscape" and a new agency, for the south of Scotland.

Wherever you put skills, the careers service and support for business, the 'landscape' quickly develops new boundaries that are some way short of optimal.

Education minister Graeme Dey responded cautiously to the Withers report. Delivery of the plan he's been given will require a brave politician.

Bureaucracies don't respond well or cheaply to being ripped up and reshaped, least of all when current incumbents are not trusted with the task of reforming themselves.

"I am supportive of the broad direction of travel James Withers identifies," the minister said, "but will take a little time to consider fully the detail of the recommendations and the practicalities of implementing them."