Call for inquiry over Scotland's census 'fiasco'

NRS needs as many completed forms as possible so agencies can use the data to predict demand for services

An inquiry should be held into the "fiasco" surrounding Scotland's census, a leading expert has said.

Only 86.6% of homes had returned the survey by Monday evening, the National Records of Scotland (NRS) said.

The deadline was extended by a month due to the low return rate, giving households until the end of 31 May to submit their form.

Opposition parties also criticised the Scottish government for not doing more to ensure a higher uptake.

Edinburgh University's Prof Lindsay Paterson, an expert in data-led social research, said it was not far-fetched to call it a "fiasco", calling it "an extreme embarrassment".

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"A census is so important and it has been run so successfully for so long and it has been run so successfully in other parts of the world including in the rest of the UK, that actually on this occasion I think the word fiasco is not too far-fetched," he said.

He told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme that the 14% of households who had yet to complete the once-in-a-decade survey would not be the same groups as the 86% who had.

Prof Paterson said the households who had not filled it in tended to be more socially deprived, and from both younger and older groups.

Inform decisions

The results are used to inform decisions on services across the country.

He said: "86% is not guaranteed to be a representative sample of the whole Scottish population."

He said that in some areas, the return rate would be higher than the 94% target.

"The real challenge will be in those areas where it's well below that," he added.

This year's census was Scotland's first principally digital survey - but more than 250,000 paper copies were still returned

This survey was Scotland's first principally digital census.

More than two million households filled it in online and 250,000 returned a paper copy.

England and Wales held their survey in 2021, with a 97% completion rate.

However, in Scotland the government delayed by a year because of the pandemic.

Asked why so many households had failed to fill it in, Prof Paterson said it was not clear and an inquiry should investigate.

Deprived areas

"The decoupling from the England, Wales and Northern Ireland census may be part of it because then Scotland didn't benefit from the UK-wide publicity," he said.

He said it could be related to poverty, however, in England some of the highest return rates came from the most deprived areas.

Prof Paterson added: "Some controversies over questions on gender and national identity may have contributed as well."

He also said census authorities may have failed to follow up with households who had not responded.

Extending the deadline by a month added £9.76m to the bill, taking it to £148m.

Opposition parties branded the exercise "shambolic".

Scottish Conservative MSP Donald Cameron said the response rate had been damaged by the delay, because of the missed opportunity to be part of a UK-wide promotion campaign.

He warned there may not be enough responses to make the data useable.

'Lessons need to be learned'

And Labour said the low uptake could result in a "decade of injustice" for poor communities, where return rates were lagging.

Liberal Democrat MSP Willie Rennie said there would "need to be some soul-searching over how this was allowed to go so wrong".

On Saturday, Angus Robertson, the government's constitution secretary, acknowledged there were "lessons to be learned".

"Why is it that there are people who believe they have been uninformed or are underinformed about the fact that the census is taking place, despite the fact that every household has been written to on numerous occasions during the census period?" he asked.

He pointed out there had been advertising and media coverage.

He added: "Still some people say they don't know there is a deadline."

NRS chief executive Paul Lowe stressed that Tuesday was the last chance to submit, adding: "Everyone's circumstances need to be captured to ensure the best decisions are taken, so please complete now."

Householders who do not return the census face prosecution, and could be fined up to £1,000.

The census can be filled in online at census.gov.scot or on paper. Paper forms can still be ordered on the website, or by calling 0800 030 8308 and will still be accepted after Tuesday.