Covid cases in Wales drop for fourth day in a row

Conwy's case rate is just above the Welsh average

The Covid case rate in Wales has fallen for the fourth successive day.

Wales' case rate has continued to fall and now stands at 500.1 cases per 100,000 people, according to Public Health Wales (PHW).

However, cases among young people in Carmarthenshire and Neath Port Talbot have shown sharp rises in the past week.

And daily confirmed Covid cases in hospitals rose slightly to 489 on Tuesday - a 19% increase in a week.

The figures also show:

• Positive tests are averaging 2,253 a day - compared to 2,171 the week before

• The "doubling time" has increased to 25 days - another sign of a slow-down

• Cases are falling in most local areas, most noticeably in Ceredigion and Merthyr Tydfil, which is now the third highest on 702.85

• Six communities still have rates above 1,000 cases per 100,000, including four in Carmarthenshire, the highest among them Ammanford & Betws.

Carmarthenshire now has the highest case rate in Wales with 717.3 cases per 100,000. The county also has by far the highest case rate among those under 25 (1,162.5 cases per 100,000, about 45% of all its cases).

Half of Wales' local authority areas showed a rise in the case rate among the under-25s in the last week. Under-25 case rates were also high in Neath Port Talbot (917.2 cases per 100,000) and Ceredigion (54% of all positive tests).

We can see the latest PHW detailed surveillance shows the case rate among the 17 to 24 age group has now fallen back but has been overtaken by rising cases in the under-16s. Other age groups are also seeing rises.

What about hospitals?

The number of confirmed Covid cases in hospital were up slightly on Tuesday to 489 - a 19% rise in a week. The daily average is 451 patients.

But the number in critical care with Covid (47) remained roughly the same as has been seen over the past two weeks. Hywel Dda has the most patients with Covid in critical care or on invasive ventilation (11).

There has been bit of a jump in daily Covid admissions - 52 on Tuesday, which include 14 in the Cardiff and Vale health board area. This is the most in a single day since 19 March.

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The daily average is 41. However, it was 97 at the same point in the second wave. The number of confirmed and suspected Covid admissions is 3.7% of all hospital admissions.

Ten more deaths reported

There were 10 deaths reported by PHW on Wednesday - four were in Aneurin Bevan, three in Swansea Bay, with one in each of the Cwm Taf Morgannwg, Betsi Cadwaladr and Hywel Dda health board areas.

There were two deaths on Monday, six on Sunday and one each on Friday and Saturday.

There have been 35 deaths in the last seven days - a daily average of five deaths. It was seven times higher at this point in the second wave.

Testing is at record levels

Record numbers of Covid-19 tests are being processed in Wales, according to the latest figures published by PHW.

Altogether we have had the most tests in a week - more than 141,000 - while 2 September saw the highest number of tests authorised in a single day (23,996).

The five million tests landmark total was also passed on 8 September. Since the summer of last year, at the end of the first wave, wider testing has been available for those with symptoms.

At the second wave peak, we saw 21,300 tests a day, but the average now is closing in on that - about 18,500 a day.

Routine testing among care home staff and residents (around 28,800 tests in the latest week) and in hospitals (17,000 weekly) accounts for around a third of tests now, with more in the community.

There were 379 positive tests in elderly care homes in Wales in the latest week - a decrease on the previous seven days.

Numbers in the previous two weeks were the highest since mid-January. Weekly peak figures came in early January, when they hit 1,500.

A positive test does not mean the resident or worker was seriously ill, only that Covid was detected in the screening.

There have also been record numbers of positive lateral flow test (LFTs) results - nearly 3,000 in the most recent set of weekly figures.

These appear to be feeding into the testing system with more people returning to workplaces and going to events, and also the return of schools.

Although LFTs do not count in the PHW testing figures, people who test positive are asked to take a follow-up PCR test, which is then counted if positive.

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