Covid in Wales: Free lateral flow tests 'paused' as infections fall

Thousands of households in Wales volunteer to be tested every week for the survey, which began in the summer of 2020

Covid infections are starting to fall in Wales, according to the latest estimates by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

One in 19 people was estimated to have had Covid in Wales, in the week ending 20 July.

It comes as ministers decided to "pause" free lateral flow testing for people with symptoms from Monday.

But tests will continue to be offered to some, including in care homes and to NHS and care staff with symptoms.

How many have Covid now?

An estimated 156,200 people in Wales had Covid in the week ending 20 July, which equates to 5.14% of the population.

That is fewer than the previous week, when 183,200 people were estimated to have Covid.

The trend has started to fall after levelling off following a rise of six successive weeks.

Health Minister Eluned Morgan said: "In view of the latest evidence, including decreasing prevalence, from 1 August we will pause provision of free lateral flow tests to members of the public with symptoms of Covid-19.

"This is consistent with our long-term Covid-19 transition from pandemic to endemic for Wales."

She said it would ensure resources would be safeguarded for potential future waves, new variants and in more challenging conditions in winter months.

Ms Morgan said the approach they continued to adopt was that Covid was not over, and the transition from pandemic to endemic had to be determined by the public health conditions at the time.

Since the summer of 2020, the ONS has organised a weekly swab survey involving thousands of households across Wales.

It has become the most important tool to measure the level of infections, with the end of mass testing at the end of March.

Infections are estimated to be lower in Wales than Scotland and Northern Ireland but higher than in England and all of its regions apart from the north west.

ONS estimates infections to involve one in 20 people in England, one in 19 in Scotland and one in 26 in Northern Ireland.

Broken down, daily estimates of infection are highest in people in Wales in their mid 50 and and lowest in older people, in their 80s.

• One in 20 has Covid in the UK

• The latest stats on coronavirus in Wales

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Latest hospital figures involving Covid have also been encouraging, following up on Welsh government scientific advice that the peak was reached in mid-July.

The number of patients testing positive for Covid in hospitals in Wales has fallen by a quarter in the last week.

Most of those - around 84% - are in hospital to be treated for other things, with only an average of around 60 patients being treated primarily in acute beds for Covid itself.

Numbers in critical care with Covid are below the peaks we saw in April and January.

Hospitals remain very busy though, with the current average at a record rate for acute bed occupancy.

The number of patients testing positive for Covid in hospital beds in Wales has averaged 483 a day over the past week - down 25% on a week ago.

Most continue to be "incidental" Covid patients, who happen to test positive in hospital but are not "actively" or primarily being treated for the virus.

Only 58 (18%) of confirmed Covid patients in acute beds on 28 July were being primarily treated for the virus, with 256 patients in hospital being treated for other conditions.

There has been an average of 60 acute patients in the last week, primarily being treated for Covid. This compares with 88 at the end of April and 176 at the end of January.

What else have we learned this week?

• There were 41 registered deaths involving Covid in Wales, 39 in people aged over 65

• NHS Wales sickness absence stands at 6.5% - down on the previous week's 7% - and compares to a usual pre-pandemic figure of about 5%. Nearly 1,400 staff were off with Covid-related sickness out of 6,750 absent.

• There has been another weekly fall in positive lateral flow test results - down to just under 7,300 positives

• 97.3% of people are now estimated to have antibodies as a protection against Covid - either through vaccination or having been infected

How testing has changed

Mass PCR testing in Wales - available to all who thought they had Covid - ended at the end of March and testing centres closed.

There are barely 7,000 PCR tests carried out each week now; at the end of December it peaked at more than 200,000.

But for the last four months, people with symptoms have been able to get a free lateral flow test (LFT).

The numbers taking LFTs have fallen over the last three weeks and those testing positive - 7,287 in the most recent week - is at its lowest point in six weeks.

The "pause" in free lateral flow tests for members of the public with symptoms will apply from the end of Sunday and confirms what was first outlined in March after Wales reached the "Covid stable" point of the pandemic.

According to the Welsh government, the track, trace, protect programme would still provide testing for certain groups.

This will include:

• LFTs provided for patients, care home residents with symptoms, care home visitors, symptomatic health and social care staff and those eligible for treatment for Covid.

• PCR tests for care home residents and prisoners with symptoms.