Opinion poll indicates Labour could gain two Welsh MPs in May

Labour leader Ed Miliband could gain two more Welsh MPs, analysis of the poll suggests

As few as two Welsh seats could change hands at the general election in May, a new poll for BBC Wales suggests.

The ICM survey puts Labour on 38%, as in a previous poll in September.

The survey puts the Conservatives down two percentage points to 21%, UKIP on 13% (down one), Plaid Cymru on 12% (down one), the Lib Dems unchanged at 7% and the Green Party up from 2% in September to 6% now.

Poll analysis indicates Labour could gain Cardiff North and Cardiff Central.

Prof Roger Scully, of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre, said that on a uniform swing across Wales, Labour would take Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats.

Prof Scully described the poll as "moderately encouraging for Labour" and "slightly disappointing" for the Conservatives.

But it was "yet another in a very long line of disappointing polls for the Lib-Dems", he said, while the results were "so-so" for Plaid Cymru.

He said the figures were consistent with Britain-wide polls this month suggesting UKIP's momentum "may currently have stalled", but there was nothing to suggest UKIP "have yet gone decisively into reverse".

Prof Scully added that the Greens were attracting "notably greater support now in Wales, just as they have begun to do in England".

But there was nothing to indicate they were likely to win a Welsh parliamentary seat.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample, of 1,004 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 8th-13th January 2015. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

More on this story on The Wales Report on BBC One Wales at 2240 GMT on Wednesday, 28 January.