MPs prepare for season of mists and autumn statement

Welsh Conservative MPs lobby Chancellor Philip Hammond.

Chancellor Phillip Hammond is determined to do things differently from his predecessor.

Unlike George Osborne, you won't see Mr Hammond in hard hat and hi-vis clothing. And he plans to be a full-time chancellor, without Mr Osborne's focus on political strategy.

So this month's Autumn Statement may lack some of razzamatazz of the Osborne years. Mr Hammond is even said to have reminded colleagues that this is not showbiz.

Another minister close to the process adds, helpfully: "The Autumn Statement is not a Christmas tree." That may disappoint Tory backbenchers - and television producers - eager (understandably) for baubles for their constituents and viewers.

Last year, the Autumn Statement was accompanied by the Spending Review and made a few headlines. The Treasury talked of a "devolution referendum" with the promise of a "floor in the level of relative funding" for the Welsh Government and Mr Osborne announced that the requirement to hold a referendum before income tax powers are devolved would be scrapped.

There was talk of the Cardiff city deal, with a Spending Review "in principle commitment to contribute to an infrastructure fund for the Cardiff region".

'Boring'

This year, promises one minister, it will be boring, dull, focused on macro-economics and designed to re-assure the markets post-Brexit rather than to steal short-term headlines. He has talked of using the event to "re-set" economic policy., and has scrapped George Osborne's aim of balancing the books before 2020 but don't expect a borrowing and spending splurge.

Of course, governments do like to manage expectations and this could be a giant double-bluff, but Mr Hammond is not nicknamed "Spreadsheet Phil" for nothing.

So perhaps we shouldn't expect a detailed commitment to a Swansea city region deal or a fresh commitment to electrifying the railways between Cardiff and Swansea (due to be completed by 2024). These issues may be allowed to follow their own timetable rather than be fixed to fit in with set-piece events.

Welsh Conservative MPs met Mr Hammond on Tuesday to lobby him to give the go-ahead for the Swansea tidal lagoon project. They found the meeting "constructive" (inevitably) but although the Hendry review has finished, don't hold your breath for an announcement on November 23.

The issue was discussed in the House of Commons earlier that day. There may be widespread cross-party support for the project, but Energy Minister Jesse Norman, who said he had received an interim copy of a report on the issue, stressed: "One of the key questions that the Hendry review and its consideration will need to address is whether the project offers proper value for money."

'Rhapsodic'

Former Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb, who backed the scheme while in government and was among the MPs to meet Mr Hammond, wrote on Facebook afterwards: "I believe the key to viability is to get early commitment, not just for Swansea, but for future lagoons which will be larger and which will bring down overall costs."

Perhaps the most telling exchange was between Neath Labour MP Christina Rees and the minister.

Christina Rees: "Swansea bay tidal lagoon would power 155,000 Welsh homes for 120 years, sustain 2,232 construction and manufacturing jobs and safeguard our steel industry. Will the government now give Swansea bay tidal lagoon the green light and trigger the new dawn of an industry worth £15 billion to Wales and the UK?"

Jesse Norman: "I am loving the rhapsodic language that the hon. Lady uses; to it I counterpose the boring bureaucracy of due process and proper consideration."

That boring bureaucracy of due process and proper consideration means we will have to wait a little longer before the government makes up its mind.