Omicron: Which restrictions could Wales face next?

We have now had weeks and weeks of dire warnings about the oncoming Omicron wave.

First Minister Mark Drakeford has described it as both a "tsunami" and a "storm" heading our way.

But given the tough words from ministers and officials, many expected them to go further at last week's review of coronavirus restrictions.

Nightclubs were ordered to close as of 27 December and social distancing restrictions reintroduced in workplaces - but no limits on social contact were introduced.

Despite how limited it looks compared to the lockdowns of 2020 and early 2021, the Welsh government has taken the most severe action of any UK nation so far.

And it is not the end of the story.

On Tuesday, the Welsh government banned spectators from sports events, starting on Boxing Day, and cabinet meetings continue to consider whether more rules are required.

What could come next? We do not know for certain, but there is a big list of things ministers could choose from.

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What is the concern?

It's a dilemma. There's a lack of information on Omicron, especially its severity.

Politicians are aware that the public is weary of restrictions, particularly for a second Christmas of disruption, so it's difficult to intervene without hard data to support that decision.

But SAGE advisers have repeatedly warned that it's better to "go early" in imposing restrictions if they are to have maximum impact.

In areas where community transmission is high, it's estimated Omicron cases will be doubling as quickly as between 1.5 to three days.

Even if only a small percentage of people eventually become seriously ill - if the numbers of cases are very large it could very quickly lead to big pressures on the NHS.

Experts will be looking at the situation in London and Scotland as an indicator of what could soon come.

But deciding on whether to bring in restrictions is always a balance between dealing with the current risk of the virus itself and other harms on things like the economy and people's mental health.

Should household bubbles return?

Before last Friday it seemed likely ministers would reimpose restrictions on social contact as a way to tackle the new variant.

Wales has not had legal restrictions on social mixing since the summer.

After comments from Dr Frank Atherton, the chief medical officer for Wales, it seemed possible that household bubbles or the rule of six indoors may be back on the horizon.

Neither emerged, but Mr Drakeford did not rule out their return.

Should pubs and restaurants be restricted to table service?

On Sunday, Mr Drakeford suggested that table service and compulsory contact tracing could return.

They were measures used to try to make dining and drinking safer, but the prospects of restricted trading that requires extra staffing and potentially fewer takings will fill the industry with concern.

The sector has already taken a hit from Omicron as punters stay away - they would want to see financial support if they are required to trade in tougher conditions.

Sara Bailey, owner of the Hot Gossip coffee shop in Treorchy, says it was an "anxious" time.

"You try and keep a smile on your face because it is Christmas and everyone is happy that we are open but it's not clear how long that will last so there is just this big cloud hanging over and that is the same for everyone in hospitality."

Ms Bailey says any changes, particularly limits on the numbers of people who can meet, would have a big impact on businesses like hers with limited space.

"Social distancing is the enemy of hospitality and the entertainment industry. It's very difficult because people want to get together," she added.

It is not know if cinemas will face new rules

Should cinemas and theatres close?

We don't know.

It is not something that had to close under alert level two - which the Welsh government is thought to be looking at.

So far, ministers have said nothing about whether they may force the sectors to shut shop.

A full lockdown? It seems unlikely

At this stage, it seems unlikely Welsh ministers will put the country into a stay-at-home lockdown right now.

Wales has the lowest Omicron rates of any of the UK nation, although a peak is expected later in January.

The conversation may change if the speculated circuit breaker, considered by the UK government for England, comes to fruition, and more support is offered to Wales.

What Mark Drakeford does may be influenced by what Boris Johnson chooses to do

What is happening in England?

While, in theory, Mr Drakeford can act independently, in practice he is restricted.

That is because the money for big support for business would need to come from the UK government.

There, the UK government is waiting to see if spikes in cases in London translated into big hospital numbers.

Ministers there are reportedly split on the need for tougher restrictions, and are waiting for more data on severity.

But if the UK government took as big a step as a circuit breaker, with the kind of support seen for businesses in previous lockdowns, that would give Mr Drakeford more room to move.