New Zealand election: Disillusioned voters eye shift away from the left

Chris Hipkins faces an uphill struggle to win enough votes to stay in power

They said hello, smiled and shook hands for the cameras.

Then after New Zealand's prime minister moved on, sweeping through the food court in Auckland's city centre, the couple fell back.

"Yeah honestly, we're probably not voting for him," said Ian, who was there with with his partner Trina.

"There's good and bad in both parties, and I think it's really close," Trina said. "But for us young working professionals, we've got a daughter now and we have to think about her future."

Whether measurably true or not, many New Zealanders believe their country is in the doldrums.

As the nation heads to its first election in three years, that sour mood is signalling a swing away from the diverse, centre-left government that was led by Jacinda Ardern for five years.

The former prime minister, who stepped down in January, had a star power and brand of "kind" politics which won her fans globally - even as her popularity waned at home.

Her successor Chris Hipkins has had to face an increasingly irate and fed-up electorate, battling the hangover of the pandemic and a struggling economy.

Political scientists says the clearest indicator of public pessimism has been a poll question on New Zealand's future, which a majority are now responding negatively to: "They feel the country is heading along the wrong track," says Lara Greaves from the Victoria University of Wellington.

Speaking to voters in the biggest city Auckland this week, "the economy's cooked" or some variant of that is often the first thing mentioned.

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"It's recession vibes," said architecture student Freya, 20, who's working two retail jobs to keep up. She counts herself lucky to be able to live with her family in Mount Roskill - but she knows "plenty of people" in her working-class neighbourhood who dropped out of university to get food on the table.

"No one's really spending, costs are up, the living wage - it's not even a living wage really it's crazy. It's so expensive these days, I feel money just flows out."

Even though New Zealand's is comparable to other developed economies, "people don't really think that it's doing better than the rest of the world because they are hurting," said local economist Brad Olsen.

"Households are struggling so that dominates the conversation," he says, citing data by his firm Infometrics. Households on average are spending NZ$240 ($144; £117) more per week on the same essentials, while food inflation peaked at a 12% increase this year after Cyclones Hale and Gabrielle.

New Zealand's ongoing housing crisis has also punted home ownership beyond reality for the young generation, he says - but those who did buy homes in recent years are having to find an extra NZ$30,000 for their mortgage after interest rate hikes.

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Both major parties have pledged policies this election to fatten wallets. Labour says it will cut the 15% tax on fresh fruit and vegetables, while centre-right National is pledging income tax cuts and other measures they say will boost business.

The policies are questioned by economists but proving popular with voters. Still, few are convinced these will fix the wider problem.

New Zealand - a country which once sold itself as on the edge of the world - is at the bottom of a supply chain exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and the slowing economy in China, its largest trade partner.

Along with economic concerns, many locals are also alarmed by a perceived rise in crime and gang violence. Although not significantly reflected in official data, stories of "ram raids" - where criminals use a vehicle to smash their way into a store - and burglaries ranging from diamond stores to corner shops, known here as dairies, have filled newspapers and social media feeds.

"It used to be really safe here, peaceful," says taxi driver Aman Singh, 29, who moved to New Zealand over a decade ago and has become a citizen. He recalled a dairy burglary last year where assailants cut off the owner's fingers.

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He loves the country, but plans on moving to Australia at the end of the year where his money can go further and there's more work available.

The exodus of young people and immigrants from New Zealand to its larger, more prosperous neighbour is a trend commonly noted these days.

"A lot of people around me have moved overseas to Australia or the UK just because everything feels just quite sluggish here and very slow-moving. The priority doesn't appear to be so much about moving forward," said 22-year-old Antonia Brightwell.

She had also considered striking out last year, but decided to stay: "I've assessed the importance of sticking where I am and just dealing with things." She said she was voting for parties which would help her family's businesses.

Antonia's biggest concern was what her future would look like with an economy "currently in the trenches"

"I know that we're still just coming out of what happened with Covid and just trying to get back into that," but the recovery so far had been too slow, she suggested.

Even Labour voters agree. There has been some frustration that Labour, which in 2020 under Ardern won a rare majority in New Zealand's proportional system which had always produced multi-party governments, wasn't able to accomplish more. Several ministerial scandals this year have also tarnished the party's image.

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"I feel like they haven't really achieved that much, or generated that much money," said Freya, who voted for Labour but criticised the slow rebound in tourism.

New Zealand's stringent Covid response - which included a closure of borders from March 2020-August 2022 -was globally praised. A scientific report released this week estimated the policy saved 20,000 lives.

But locals were also pushed to their limits with lockdowns and extended restrictions, Associate Prof Greaves said.

It led to a rise in disillusioned and angry New Zealanders, crowds of whom camped on the lawns outside parliament last year.

Those groups have also made their presence known in this year's election. Polls show support for both major parties have ebbed - while there's been a sharp uptick for a fringe anti-establishment peddling a nastier tone of debate.

Chris Luxon's National Party is is expected to emerge as the largest party, polls suggest

The noisy contender this year has been Act, a libertarian party once banished to political exile with less than 1% of the vote.

It has come back to claim up to 10%, according to some polls. National, under leader Chris Luxon, has also signalled it would form a coalition government with the party, whose leader has attacked Māori representation in parliament and been accused of racial dog-whistling.

Populist party New Zealand First also looks set to return - with current polls suggesting leader Winston Peters will hold the balance of power in Saturday's vote. In the event that no coalition deal can be reached, a second election could be on the cards.

Mr Peters sided with Labour in 2017, a move which allowed its then new leader Jacinda Ardern to form government. Few expect him to embrace the left again now.