Irish government formation still weeks away
- Published
Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin lead Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil
It is well over 100 days since the Republic of Ireland's inconclusive general election.
If there is to be a new coalition government involving Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Greens and possibly some independents, it still seems weeks away.
Negotiations between the three parties have been continuing.
There is an expectation they may be able to agree a programme for government within two weeks.
But the difficult and divisive issues, such as how to deal with the economic implications of repaying debts arising from the Covid-19 crisis, are being left till last.
The three parties have a combined Dáil (lower house of parliament) vote of 84 - just four above a majority and many believe they will need to get the support of some independent TDs to have a more comfortable existence.
That could further delay a coalition formation because the independents may have their own individual priority issues.
If the parties do reach agreement on a programme for government they will then have to get the deal passed by their memberships.
Although two cabinet ministers have voiced their opposition and concerns about coalition, Fine Gael, with its electoral college which gives a big say to the parliamentary party, is expected to meet the least resistance to the proposed government.
Fianna Fáil, which has slumped in the polls since the election, is expected to post ballot papers to its estimated 15,000 members if there is a deal.
Eamon Ó'Cuív, a former minister and grandson of the party's founder Eamon de Valera, is among those most opposed to going into government with the party's traditional enemy Fine Gael.
Both parties have their origins in the conflicting sides of the Irish Civil War between 1922 and 1923.
Many believe that the relatively elderly membership of the party may reject such a coalition.
And then there are people, mainly in rural areas, in both parties who have deep concerns about the impact Green policies may have on them, road building and agriculture.
The Greens have the highest membership threshold to cross to go into coalition; the party must get a two thirds majority for a deal.
The party also has its opponents to going into government with the other two.
And all the while, simmering in the background, there is a potential leadership challenge to party leader Eamon Ryan from the deputy leader Catherine Martin.
Watching all of this unfold is Sinn Féin, the party which got the most votes in the February election 16 weeks ago.
Mary Lou McDonald and her colleagues know they are almost certain to be the main opposition.
But there remains the small, but very unlikely, possibility that if the current negotiations collapse there is a chance Sinn Féin may try to form a government with Fianna Fáil - probably under a new leader - and other left of centre parties and TDs.
There is a potential leadership challenge to Green party leader Eamon Ryan
When the election results became known, the talk was of a government by Easter, then the middle of May, followed by mid-June and now the end of June and possibly the beginning of July for the election of a taoiseach (prime minister).
In these mainly sunny Covid-19 times, the clouds of uncertainty still hang over the if and when of Irish coalition government formation.
- Published5 March 2020
