Camp spotted on suspected Wagner site in Belarus
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A new high-resolution satellite image obtained by the BBC reveals hundreds of new tent-like structures at the site of a suspected Wagner camp in Belarus.
This follows an agreement to relocate Wagner mercenaries and their controversial leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus, following the recent mutiny against Russian forces.
What does the satellite image show?
The satellite image appears to show activity at a disused military base about 13 miles (21km) from the town of Asipovichy - around 64 miles from Minsk, the capital of Belarus. The area has been reported in Russian media, external as a place which could house Wagner fighters.
BBC Verify has identified over 300 tent-like structures erected within the past two weeks.
A satellite image from 15 June shows none of these structures visible. The most recent high-resolution image we've obtained is from 30 June and reveals the extensive work being carried out at the base.
It's not possible to confirm that these new structures are intended to house Wagner forces, but the leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko has agreed to accommodate them.
Their presence would mean that Ukraine now has to worry about reinforcing its northern border, while neighbouring NATO countries Poland, Latvia and Lithuania have concerns about future subversive activity Wagner may undertake from Belarus.
And yet nobody, probably not even the Kremlin itself, knows how many Wagner fighters will go to Belarus, how many will join the Russian army to fight on in Ukraine, and how many will hang up their boots and go home.
A trawl of Telegram online chat rooms by BBC Verify reveals few clues, although one blogger who identifies himself as a Belarusian Wagner fighter says the group "continues to work". In the immediate aftermath of the mutiny many are believed to have returned to their bases in the Russian-occupied parts of eastern Ukraine.
Why does Wagner matter?
Firstly, in the space of just a few hours on 24 June, Wagner took control of an entire Russian city, Rostov-on-Don. They then sent a heavily-armed convoy northwards, stopping just 200km short of Moscow, shooting down Russian military aircraft en route.
It was the most serious challenge yet to President Putin's rule, even if, as Wagner's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin claims, it was not intended to be.
In short, it came close to triggering what could have been a catastrophic civil war in a country with the world's largest arsenal of nuclear warheads.
Wagner fighters took control of Rostov-on-Don on 24 June
Secondly, Wagner has been by far Russia's most effective military force on the ground in Ukraine. Its soldiers, comprising both career veterans and convicts, are in most cases better paid and better motivated than the regular army.
After months of bitter close-quarter combat resembling the street battles of Stalingrad in WW2, Wagner gave Russia something resembling a victory when its troops captured the ruined city of Bakhmut this year.
What will Putin do?
President Putin is faced with a dilemma. Wagner launched a mutiny, so it's clearly a potential future threat. Yet it's also been enormously useful to the Kremlin and not just in Ukraine .
Deployed to Syria, Libya and several African countries, Wagner projects Russian strategic power and influence around the globe, and all the while under the guise of pretending it has nothing to do with the Kremlin. Only very recently has Putin finally admitted that Wagner has been state-funded to the tune of billions of roubles.
Following the aborted mutiny, the Kremlin has said Wagner fighters have until 1 July to decide whether to sign contracts to join the regular army (not an attractive prospect for most). If not, they can either return home, or go to neighbouring Belarus where Mr Prigozhin is supposed to be in exile.
Where is Prigozhin?
Wagner's leaders is no career soldier. The former convict and hot dog salesman enjoys popping up on Wagner's Telegram channel, dressed in combat clothing, and launching popular tirades of expletive-laden abuse at Russia's military leadership for its incompetence.
But he's gone quiet online over the past few days, and his whereabouts are unknown.
A video claiming to show Prigozhin visiting a Wagner camp on the frontline was posted on Telegram
We know from flight tracking data that an aircraft linked to Mr Prigozhin landed in the Belarusian capital Minsk this week. His arrival there was confirmed by the Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko.
That same aircraft has since returned to Russia, stopping in St Petersburg and Moscow.
BBC Verify has also been looking at an image that first appeared in a Russian newspaper, external of a man the paper says is Mr Prigozhin boarding a helicopter in St Petersburg on 29 June.
The same helicopter - identifiable by its tail number - has been photographed being used by Mr Prigozhin as recently as 26 May this year.
In the image the person entering the helicopter is wearing a baseball cap and surgical mask making identification very difficult.
One thing that adds to the mystery is that Mr Prigozhin has a partially missing finger on his left-hand, but in this latest image, the man appears to have all these fingers intact.
What impact on the conflict?
BBC Verify has been looking for evidence of gains by Ukrainian forces since the Wagner rebellion, but has not observed any significant changes to frontline positions so far.
"I don't think it will have an impact right now as Russia is on the defensive," says Marina Miron, a Russian military expert at King's College London.
"If the regular Russian army manages to absorb the Wagner troops and re-purpose them under a single command structure, it won't necessarily weaken the Russian side."
Ultimately it comes down to a question of morale amongst frontline Russian troops. If they suspect their commanders are fighting amongst themselves back home in Russia, then over time that could seriously affect morale in the trenches.
Wagner is not finished but its days of operating largely independently of the Russian army are over. With its weaponry handed in and without the charismatic Prigozhin at its head, it will no longer be the force it was. And that, for Kyiv, is some relief.
Additional reporting by Daniele Palumbo, Paul Brown and Benedict Garman.
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