Republican governors as masters of disaster

Republican governors as masters of disaster

An unprecedented number of current and former governors are running for the Republican presidential nomination this year, all of whom cite their executive leadership experience as a key qualification. One of the best indications of leadership ability, however, is how a governor performs when disaster strikes.

"These things are unexpected tests of leadership traits," says Carnegie Mellon Prof John T Gasper, who has studied the political effects of natural disasters on governors. "Constituents are facing hardships, and they look to their elected officials to help them."

He says his research has shown that a good performance during a disaster can lead to a significant boost in public approval and "actually change outcomes at the ballot box" - if a politician can act quickly and take charge of the situation.

"If an event happens and then the government is too slow in responding they can be taken to task for not addressing the concerns of their constituents," Gasper says. "That's often why you see politicians jumping to respond as quickly as possible. If they don't, it looks like they're playing catch-up and trying to get back in front of the media."

Some of the presidential hopefuls have had relatively smooth sailing when it comes to unforeseen tragedies. Wisconsin's Scott Walker and Ohio's John Kasich govern states well removed from one of the most notable sources of danger, Atlantic hurricanes.

Others, however, have not been so fortunate - but they've also found themselves the beneficiaries of the surge in public support and press visibility that successfully surmounting disasters can have.

Here's a look at some of the candidates who faced the biggest crises - and how they handled them.

Jeb Bush - Florida

Jeb Bush dealt with eight hurricanes while governor of Florida

Ten years after Hurricane Charley struck south-west Florida in 2004, Jeb Bush told an audience marking the anniversary that the disaster "is in my soul".

While governor of Florida, Mr Bush dealt with a string of eight hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 that hit various parts of his state.

"We literally were preparing and recovering and responding to storms in different parts of the state all at once," Mr Bush said. "People broke the rules to be of service to people and did it in a smart way."

Jeb Bush's hurricane response is credited with boosting his brother's 2004 re-election campaign

Mr Bush travelled throughout Florida, issuing warnings in English and Spanish to residents to evacuate the at-risk areas and overseeing relief to those affected.

His performance is credited with not only helping his political standing in the state - but also that of his brother, President George W Bush, who was counting on Florida's support during his re-election campaign in 2004.

"Since the hurricanes hit, it has been all Jeb, all the time on television and in the newspapers," University of Virginia Prof Larry Sabato told the New York Sun in 2004. "You better believe what an enormous plus he is for the president."

Chris Christie - New Jersey

Chris Christie has faced conservative backlash for praising President Obama shortly before the 2012 election

In October 2012, Superstorm Sandy devastated the New Jersey coast. It was a moment that defined Chris Christie's first term as New Jersey governor, sending his approval ratings to record highs and all but assuring his re-election in 2013.

The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan predicted the governor would make his handling of the storm a focus of his possible 2016 presidential campaign.

"If Christie makes a White House bid, a major part of his campaign will likely centre around the idea of leadership - getting things done, whether it means lashing your own party or working with the other one," he wrote. "And you can bet that his response to Sandy will be something he will mention more than a few times."

Except Mr Christie is now running for president - and he barely mentions it at all.

"I have stood up against economic calamity and unprecedented natural disaster" was the closest he came to discussing Sandy during his presidential announcement speech on Tuesday.

The problem, it seems, is that while the governor was receiving plaudits for overseeing his state's response to the storm, he was also praising President Barack Obama just days before the 2012 presidential election, going so far as to hug him while cameras rolled.

It's an image that stung conservatives at the time - and Mr Christie may fear that any mention of Sandy could remind Republican primary voters of the perceived betrayal.

"If he survives the primary, it will come up substantially in terms of working across party divides, etc," says Gasper. "At the primary level, however, he doesn't want to be associated with Democrats in any way, shape or form."

Bobby Jindal - Louisiana

Bobby Jindal criticised his state's handling of Hurricane Katrina - then faced a natural disaster of a different kind

Bobby Jindal's ascent to the Louisiana governorship likely can be attributed not to his performance during a natural disaster, but to his predecessor's poor handling of 2005's Hurricane Katrina.

Kathleen Blanco, the Democrat who was Louisiana governor when the hurricane hit, saw her 70% approval rating before the storm fall to 31% in March 2006.

"New Orleans has suffered from the trauma of three crises," Mr Jindal said in 2006. "First was the hurricane, second was the levees breaking and third has been the widespread incompetence of the federal, state and local government response. This has been a one-year case study in bureaucracy and red tape at its very worst."

Ms Blanco chose not to run for re-election in 2007, and Mr Jindal - then a member of Congress - won in an open election by 36% over his nearest competitor.

As governor Mr Jindal had to deal with his own unexpected event - the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill - and received largely positive reviews.

"With Katrina very much in mind, Jindal, the first Indian-American governor in US history, has flung himself into the crisis, enduring dawn-to-dusk briefings on the fine points of the spill and hopping on helicopters, boats and sport utility vehicles to inspect the parishes in the path of the crude," wrote Politico's Glenn Thrush.

The New Republic's Jesse Zwick said: "Jindal's proving himself to be an effective leader during a crisis."

By September 2011 Mr Jindal's popularity in Louisiana stood at 61%. Successful handling of crises doesn't make a politician bulletproof, however. Thanks in large part to a massive state budget shortfall, Mr Jindal has seen his approval plummet to 32%.

George Pataki - New York

George Pataki (left) is touting his handling of New York after the 9/11 attacks

It's been a while since George Pataki was governor - his term ended in 2006 and he has not held elective office since then. He's pinning much of his hopes for a long-shot presidential bid on fond memories of his response to the 9/11 World Trade Center attacks, however.

The former governor's announcement video boasts of his response to the tragedy.

"As Governor of New York, George Pataki led during the worst terrorist attack the US had seen on American soil," the narrator intones. "His leadership inspired people of all backgrounds, factions, and beliefs to come together and work towards a better America."

Mr Pataki hasn't been free from criticism over his attempts to tout his actions in 2001, however.

"There was one leader for 9/11: it was Rudy Giuliani," Andrew Cuomo - the current New York governor - said in 2002. "If it defined George Pataki, it defined George Pataki as not being the leader… He stood behind the leader. He held the leader's coat. He was a great assistant to the leader. But he was not a leader."

As Bustle's Alicia Lu points out, Mr Cuomo was roundly derided for his comments - but "it's true that Pataki never received the widespread and long-term recognition for being a leader during 9/11 that Mayor Giuliani did".

It's also worth noting that Mr Giuliani ran for president in 2008 in large part based on his leadership in New York City following 9/11. Although he soared in early opinion polls, his support never translated into significant votes in the Republican primaries and he withdrew from the race after spending $58.5m (£37.25m) and winning only one delegate.

Rick Perry - Texas

Rick Perry dealt with hurricanes, Katrina evacuees and wildfires while Texas governor

Rick Perry may be best known for the self-made disaster that was his 2012 bid for the presidency, but as Texas governor he received praise for his handling of a number of crises.

During his 14 years in office four hurricanes made direct landfall on Texas, a massive wildfire erupted near Austin, Hurricane Katrina caused a refugee crisis in Houston and a Dallas hospital was at the centre of the 2014 US Ebola scare.

""There have been many times in his 14 years, given floods, wildfires, hurricanes and now with this health crisis, where he's had a chance to learn what works," Robert Eckels, a former Harris County judge and Perry supporter, told the Associated Press in October 2014. "No matter where he goes next, he will take that with him."

The Washington Post's Amy Gardner pointed out in 2011 that Mr Perry's "anti-Washington", hardcore conservative Tea Party rhetoric has occasionally made it difficult for the governor to deal with the "congressional leaders and federal agencies" that are key to co-ordinated disaster relief.

Mr Perry summed up the challenge - and opportunity - of being a governor best, however, during a talk in 2014.

"You're defined by events that you may never see coming," he said.

Republican presidential hopefuls in - and out - of the 2016 race