NFL London: Will UK host a team or Super Bowl? What's next for international growth?
- Published
Patrick Mahomes (left) with Roger Goodell the morning after helping the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 57 in February
NFL 2023 regular season |
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Dates: 7 September 2023 - 7 January 2024 |
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It was a question many were asking as the latest run of London games ended on Sunday: will there ever be an NFL team based in England's capital?
Since the NFL's first regular season game overseas in 2007, global interest in American football has continued to grow.
The international series is now up to five games a season, and last week the Jacksonville Jaguars became the first team to play twice overseas in the same campaign.
More international expansion is coming and, speaking at a fan forum in London, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell teased UK fans about what lies ahead.
He said London hosting the Super Bowl "has been discussed" and "is not impossible". As for a UK franchise, he added: "Every year here I feel more enthusiastic about it. I don't want to rule anything out."
So what are the most likely next steps for the NFL overseas and why could they be influenced by a huge construction project in Florida?
Multiple games again for 'London's team'?
The Jaguars have tried to make 'home' games at Wembley look as close as possible to those back in Florida
If any team might relocate to the UK, the Jaguars are the ideal candidate. They have visited most often, playing in each London series since 2013 - and two weeks running this year.
They won both games and will play one 'home' game at Wembley in 2024. Team owner Shahid Khan said during the London games that he hopes to renew that deal,, external although the Jags are yet to confirm if they will play multiple games again next year.
NFL UK's general manager Henry Hodgson told BBC Sport: "The Jaguars playing back-to-back games here, and being present in London throughout that time, was an exciting piece of progress for us.
"That was the next step in that evolution, in terms of testing towards [a London franchise]. It was a good opportunity for us to prove that we could create a really seamless experience.
"They were great game-days but, importantly, everything in between went smoothly for them, so there was no way anyone could say 'we'd have been better off being in Jacksonville during that time', because everything was delivered to the level they're used to."
However, a permanent move no longer looks imminent as the franchise is in negotiations over a new stadium in Jacksonville costing $1.4bn, external (£1.15bn). They hope construction will begin after the 2024 season.
A whole division in Europe?
The last expansion team to join the NFL were the Houston Texans in 2002
Never mind a London franchise, during last year's London games commissioner Goodell mooted the idea of European cities hosting a whole division - four teams. Divisional rivals play each other twice a season so that would be 12 games which do not involve any teams travelling across the Atlantic.
For that to happen, four teams would have to relocate from the US or four expansion teams be formed - the NFL has had just one since 1999.
"There's work being done to see what [a Europe division] would take," Hodgson said. "In the meantime, all we can do is create the conditions and the opportunity that would make a franchise successful if it were to come here. That means continuing to grow the fanbase, media coverage and participation.
"The part we have less control over is the last piece of the puzzle. You'd need an owner to say 'I'm going to take my franchise over' or a new franchise to come into the league and their owner to make the case that London, or anywhere else, is the right place for that."
More international games expected in 2024 - but how many?
Renovation work at Real Madrid's Santiago Bernabeu stadium is expected to be completed in December at a total cost of about $1bn (£822m)
For now, overseas games are a bigger priority for the NFL than an overseas franchise. League officials recently visited Spain and Brazil to look at playing in Madrid, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. The NFL is also in talks with France and Australia, but it has yet to carry out similar visits.
This year's international series concludes with two games in Germany next month as Mexico's Azteca Stadium is being renovated, ruling it out for this season and next.
Germany will stage at least one game in 2024, with Tottenham hosting two and Wembley one, so Brazil and/or Spain could be added to next year's series.
Besides having one international franchise, another option is each team playing eight home games, eight away and one international, with the regular season having been expanded to 17 games in 2021.
"Either of those paths is in the realms of possibility," said NFL executive vice-president Peter O'Reilly.
"That's why we're doing this diligence around the opportunity of expanding the number of games played and having the capacity and infrastructure in place if there were a scenario for potential relocation or maybe even expansion.
"There is passion and demand for our game and for the NFL outside the US and that's why we're exploring it as fully as we are. We want to serve an ever-growing and engaged global fan base."
Hosting the Super Bowl 'the pinnacle' for UK
Super Bowl 57: Watch Kansas City Chiefs' locker room celebrations
Given the NFL's current formula for play-off games and the Super Bowl, there would first have to be a UK franchise for either to be staged in London.
Only cities with an NFL team are considered for the Super Bowl, the only post-season game played at a neutral venue, so it would also take a UK team earning home-field advantage for a play-off game to be played in London.
And even if a London team existed, the time difference would be a concern when hosting the Super Bowl. The game's kick-off time is traditionally 18:30 ET (23:30 GMT). That would have to be brought forward if staged in the UK, taking it out of the primetime slot for US TV.
The only TV broadcast ever to draw a bigger US audience than last season's Super Bowl (115.1 million) was the 1969 Moon landing. The game also attracted its biggest ever audience outside the US (56 million).
And, as one of the world's biggest sport events, it provides a huge economic boost to the host region and local fans. Last season's Super Bowl generated $1.3bn, external (£1.07bn) for Arizona and brought in more than 100,000 out-of-state guests.
"My perspective is that it would be very difficult to take that out of the US for a number of reasons, both logistical and cultural," Hodgson added.
"But yes, aspirationally that's the pinnacle of something we'd like to happen. If there was a franchise in London, that's how Super Bowl cities earn that right. They can bid to host the game."
So the immediate prospect of more NFL games in London could hinge on the construction schedule of the Jaguars' proposed new stadium.
It was initially thought the team would have to play at an alternate site for two seasons. The Jags now hope to reduce that to one.
However many games they must play away from Jacksonville, UK fans would welcome them to a temporary home.