Goals are a lot to expect

Dwight McNeil puts his head into the grass in despairImage source, Getty Images
  • Published

It is proving a season of challenge at Goodison Park both on and off the pitch.

Changing figures in the points column have proved confusing and emotionally draining, while a long, winless run has tested patience.

One area of struggle continues to be in front of goal, where Sean Dyche's side are posting remarkable numbers in terms of chances passed up.

Expected goals v actual goals

Everton - differential: -14.57

46.57 expected goals v 32 actual goals

Brentford - differential: -6.96

51.96 expected goals v 45 actual goals

Chelsea - differential: -3.28

58.28 expected goals v 55 actual goals

The three clubs listed boast the worst records in the Premier League for scoring the chances they would be expected to put away, but Everton's tally appears extreme.

In contrast, their relegation rivals Luton have scored 6.56 more goals than they would have been expected to from their chances. The Hatters have found the net 45 times from an xG of 38.44.

That positive differential is the fifth best in the Premier League.

Will the numbers swing if Dyche's men start finding the net?

In a season of off-the-field complexity, it is one on-the-field metric that could prove significant.

Related topics