'Keeper battle and squad depth will decide Ulster final'

Ulster Football Final - Armagh v Donegal

Venue: St Tiernach's Park, Clones Date: Saturday, 10 May Throw-in: 17:25 BST

Coverage: Watch on BBC Two NI & BBC iPlayer from 16:55 BST; live text commentary with in-game clips, report and highlights on the BBC Sport website

Monaghan's two-time Ulster Championship winner and BBC pundit Conor McManus breaks down Saturday's Anglo-Celt Cup decider between Donegal and Armagh.

When the Ulster Championship started, a lot of people would have predicted that Armagh and Donegal would be the last two counties standing - and here we are.

It's no great surprise, but that doesn't mean it's not exciting. In fact, it should be every bit as compelling as last year's Ulster final when Donegal beat Armagh on penalties.

Having been lucky enough to play in a few Ulster finals, the occasion is hard to beat, especially when the weather plays ball and there isn't a seat to be had in Clones.

And it's good to see the game being played in Clones after talk of a move to Croke Park. It was the right call.

Every player wants to play at Croke Park but the Ulster final belongs in Clones. When we played Tyrone in the 2021 Ulster final in Croke Park, that was to accommodate social distancing. Every Ulster final in Clones since has been memorable, so moving it down the road never made sense to me.

And while an early-evening throw-in on a Saturday is a strange enough concept to wrap your head around for an Ulster final, everything is pointing towards it being a gripping watch.

Donegal and Armagh are well used to this scene, too. Donegal have been regulars in the Ulster final over the past couple of decades and this is Armagh's third in a row, so neither panel will be overawed by the pressure.

And while Armagh's long wait for an Ulster title has been well documented, it's worth repeating that the chance to win the Anglo-Celt for the first time since 2008 is a huge motivating factor.

To bridge their 17-year gap, they must first quieten Donegal goalkeeper Shaun Patton, whose kick-outs have been exceptional throughout the Ulster series.

They were great against Derry and went to an even higher level against Monaghan, who pressed them well at times. Then against Down, we saw how Patton can find little pockets out wide or go right over the top of the press.

Variety and accuracy make his kick-outs a massive weapon for Donegal, but Ethan Rafferty can be equally as influential for Armagh. His kicking display against Tyrone - 23 successful kick-outs from 24 - was remarkable.

Whereas Patton doesn't tend to get involved in the play, Rafferty has an adventurous streak to him. That is Rafferty's point of difference but they are both great examples of the remarkable level of goalkeeping across the country.

From Rory Beggan and Niall Morgan to the likes of Shane Ryan, the level of goalkeeping ability in the modern game is something to behold and the two men between the posts will be a big part of the story on Saturday.

Shaun Patton and Ethan Rafferty will both have a big say in Saturday's decider

Squad depth will be another key factor.

Armagh started with only six of their 2024 All-Ireland final line-up in the semi-final against Tyrone, which highlights the depth available to Kieran McGeeney.

McGeeney's side were particularly good in the third quarter against Tyrone but Tyrone will have been disappointed with how they defended at times.

Armagh certainly won't be getting through the Donegal defence as easily, so the bench could have a defining impact again.

I continue to struggle to see where Kieran McGeeney will go with his starting line-up because he has so many players in form and putting their hands up.

This time last year, neither Ross McQuillan nor Callum O'Neill were starting games for Armagh, but they have established themselves as key figures in McGeeney's set-up.

And look at the players McGeeney has been able to call upon from the bench recently: Conor Turbitt (All Star), Aidan Forker (All-Ireland winning captain) and Niall Grimley (All-Ireland final starter) among others.

On the other hand, Donegal's squad is even deeper than last year. Returning players like Michael Murphy and Odhran McFadden Ferry have been key, while Jamie Brennan, Jason McGee and Niall O'Donnell have all been effective options off the bench.

'Destined to go the distance'

There doesn't seem to be a weakness in either team. Whatever way you look at it, it's hard to see it not going the distance.

From having watched the semi-finals, some would claim Armagh are in better form, but an Ulster final is never that simple.

Predictions aren't simple either but I do think it will be a draw. The past three Ulster finals have all needed extra-time and I'm expecting the same on Saturday. Beyond that, penalty shootouts are a lottery, although Armagh haven't had much luck over the past few years.

I do think it'll be a draw. Penalties are a lottery, although Armagh haven't had much joy with them over the past few years. If Armagh don't get a few players back from injury, it may just about tip the scales in Donegal's favour. I definitely see it going the distance.