Jonathan Agnew: India set for one of their greatest wins

India have not won a Test away from home since 2011

Barring some sort of miracle, India will record one of their greatest Test victories on Monday.

Everything was loaded against them when England won the toss on Thursday and did exactly the right thing in bowling first.

And yet India have answered every question England have asked of them. They have played the perfect match for the conditions, and now look highly likely to go on and win the game on the fifth day having reduced England to 105-4 in pursuit of a distant 319.

I wrote yesterday about England needing to seize an opportunity and knock the door down. Instead it is India, driven on by an inspired Ravindra Jadeja, who have done exactly that.

Ravindra Jadeja's counter-attacking 68 off 57 balls took the game away from England

When he came out to bat today, England were getting back into the game, but Jadeja counter-attacked with a superb 68 off 57 balls that may well prove the match-winning innings.

He is an opponent who gets under your skin and winds you up. He reminds me of Australia's David Warner or, from my era, Javed Miandad of Pakistan. They just get into your face and really annoy you.

He danced down the pitch a few times, and was happy to take risks and smash the fast bowlers back over their heads.

When he marked his fifty with a Zorro-style celebration, he was clearly enjoying himself just as much as England were hating every minute.

Jadeja was brilliantly supported by Bhuvneshwar Kumar, who once again showed his all-round qualities with his third fifty of the series and an excellent spell with the new ball.

India's Bhuvneshwar Kumar is one of only three players to have got a half-century and five wickets in successive Test matches. Ian Botham and Richard Hadlee are the others

It all added up to one of the most gripping days of Test cricket I have seen for a long time, partly because of the fascinating sub-plots that were playing out.

For Jadeja to score the runs with such flamboyance after his incident with James Anderson at Trent Bridge was utterly captivating. And the hostile stares between the pair of them when Anderson was fielding at mid-on and Jadeja was at the non-striker's end were pure theatre.

Later in the day, the tension when Alastair Cook was batting was almost unbearable, with the crowd on the edge of their seats willing him to make a substantial score.

Cook did everything you could ask for from a batsman so desperately out of form as he played in the 'V' - in front of the wicket between mid-on and mid-off - and left the ball outside off stump. But in the end he just followed one down the hill and nicked it, which can happen to a left-handed batsman.

People will point at England's batting, at Cook and the struggling Ian Bell, but it is the bowlers who have really let England down in this match.

Both Stuart Broad and James Anderson looked tired and jaded on Sunday, just when England needed them to be at their best.

Anderson even looked a bit distracted at times. He knows the spotlight is on him and his behaviour and he just wasn't his normal fire-breathing self.

Broad's fitness is a big concern. He bowled one good, quick spell on Saturday evening, but on Sunday he struggled to bowl the right length and finished with figures of 1-93 off 23 overs.

The most galling thing for England is that they have been outplayed by India on a pitch that was made to order. That is a damning indictment of this team.

England captain Alastair Cook passes the MCC members after being caught behind for 22

For the MCC to go against everything they have ever done to prepare a pitch as green as this one under orders from England will have stuck in the craw.

Never again can England take the moral high ground and claim that they don't prepare pitches like other countries do.

But the risk you take when you prepare a result pitch is that you are giving the opposition a chance as well.

India have a perfectly reasonable seam attack, but they like a bit of help too. And if you give them help, they will get you out.

The tourists have seized the moment and that is how you win games.

Jonathan Agnew was talking to BBC Sport's Sam Sheringham

Listen to Geoffrey Boycott and Jonathan Agnew review the day's play on the Test Match Special podcast.