How will World Cup play-offs be determined?

The draw for the World Cup play-offs takes place on Thursday, and the results on Monday and Tuesday are crucial for Wales, Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and, potentially, Scotland.

We know eight of the 16 teams who will be in the play-offs, but who fills the remaining places will determine the draw pots - and who gets home advantage in the semi-finals.

The 12 teams who finished runners-up in their group will be seeded into three pots by their world ranking. The fourth pot will contain the four teams who were awarded a play-off through performance in the Uefa Nations League.

Here's how the draw is shaping up, and how the four nations could be affected...

How World Cup play-off draw will work

Wales need a victory over North Macedonia to secure a home semi-final in the World Cup play-offs

There are four places to be won, through four play-off paths each containing four teams with one-legged semi-finals and finals.

The draw takes place at 12:00 GMT on Thursday, which will create the individual paths.

In the semi-finals, the seeded teams will be at home:

Pot 1 v Pot 4

Pot 2 v Pot 3

The home advantage in each of the finals will be determined by draw on Thursday.

So, is being in Pot 1 more favourable than Pot 2? It doesn't make too much difference.

While Pot 4 has teams who failed to make the top two of their World Cup groups, there are nations within it who will have a higher world ranking that some in Pot 3.

The other argument is that the teams in Pot 3 have better recent form, so should be seen as stronger opponents.

What's most important is being in Pot 1 or Pot 2, and guaranteeing a home semi-final.

Who is guaranteed to be in play-offs?

Albania, the Czech Republic, Italy, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Romania, Sweden and Ukraine are definitely in.

Kosovo and Turkey will be in barring huge victories against Switzerland and Spain respectively, while Poland would need the Netherlands to lose heavily to Lithuania to avoid the play-offs.

One of North Macedonia or Wales will feature, and most likely both.

So, what do we know for certain? Not too much yet:

Pot 1: Italy

Pot 2:

Pot 3: Albania, plus Kosovo unless they beat Switzerland by six goals.

Pot 4: Romania, Sweden, Northern Ireland

Turkey and Ukraine are likely to be Pot 1.

How does it look for Scotland?

Scotland will qualify automatically with a victory over Denmark on Tuesday. If they fail to get the win, they will be in the play-offs.

The Scots cannot be in Pot 1, but are looking good for Pot 2 and that home semi-final.

However, there are two sets of results which would put Scotland in Pot 3 and lead to an away semi-final.

Scenario one:

Scotland lose

Bosnia win in Austria

Wales win at home against North Macedonia

Czech Republic beat Gibraltar

Scenario two:

Scotland draw

Slovakia win or draw in Germany

Bosnia win in Austria

Wales win at home against North Macedonia

Czech Republic beat Gibraltar

How does it look for Wales?

Wales are guaranteed at least a play-off, and could technically still qualify automatically if they were to win and Belgium lost at home to Liechtenstein.

Really, it's just a question of which play-off pot they will be in. If they lose or draw at home to North Macedonia, they will be in Pot 4 as a Uefa Nations League group winner.

If Wales win they guaranteed a home semi-final, and likely to be in Pot 2.

There is a small chance of being in Pot 1, but that would require the following set of results:

Slovakia lose or draw in Germany

Bosnia lose or draw in Austria

Scotland lose or draw at home against Denmark

Poland fail to win in Malta

How does it look for Republic of Ireland?

Republic of Ireland's stunning late win in Hungary on Sunday gave them an unlikely play-off route.

It's most probable they will be in Pot 3 for the draw, but there is a chance of being in Pot 2 and getting that home semi-final.

To get into Pot 2, Republic of Ireland need both these results, which aren't beyond the realms of possibility:

Bosnia draw or lose in Austria

North Macedonia win or draw in Wales

How does it look for Northern Ireland?

As we know for certain that Northern Ireland will be in Pot 4 and away from home in the semi-finals, it's just a question of waiting to see their potential opponents. Only Italy are confirmed as being in Pot 1.

What about the inter-confederation play-offs?

These are the play-offs in March which set out the final two places and don't involve any countries from Europe. The draw also takes place on Thursday.

Six nations will take part, in two paths with a semi-final and a final.

However, world ranking is even more important as the two countries with the best ranking go direct to the final.

Asia: Iraq or United Arab Emirates

Africa: DR Congo

Concacaf: Two places TBC

Conmebol: Bolivia

OFC: New Caledonia

All we know for certain is that Bolivia and New Caledonia will be in the semi-finals.

The range of world rankings which could take up the two Concacaf slots is from 31 to 126 and who slots into those (the final matches are overnight into Wednesday) will determine the two top seeds.

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