Ashes: Pundits predict Australia v England scoreline

Australia are the holders of the Ashes after a 2-2 draw in 2019 saw them retain the urn

The 72nd Ashes series starts in Brisbane on Wednesday, but will Australia retain the urn or will England regain it?

We asked former players and BBC Test Match Special commentators to make their predictions for the five-Test series.

You can leave your predictions in the comments at the bottom...

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Women's Ashes winner Isa Guha

England have a much better chance than when they lost 4-0 four years ago. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities with the bat and both have quality bowling attacks.

Australia are favourites but, with Ben Stokes back, Joe Root coming off his brilliant year and James Anderson probably on his last tour down under, it's all coming together nicely for England.

Prediction: Australia 2-2 England.

Former Australia pace bowler Mitchell Johnson, Ashes winner in 2013-14

I have previously been saying 3-1 to Australia, but haven't been totally confident with it. There are a lot of variables and if there is a second pink-ball Test, it could be very tight. I have Australia just in front, because they know the conditions well.

Prediction: Australia 3-2 England.

Former England spinner Phil Tufnell

I look at the England batting line-up and don't see enough runs. I know Mitchell Starc comes in for a lot of criticism but, with new skipper Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon, it's the attack that knocked England over the last time they were there.

Are England going to get to 400 or 500 often enough? No.

Prediction: Australia 3-1 England.

BBC cricket correspondent Jonathan Agnew

The Covid restrictions, schedule and the weather are working in England's favour. Whereas once Australia were firm favourites, that now only seems to be marginal. You can see avenues where England's hand is being strengthened.

The lack of preparation for both sides surely evens things up at the Gabba, where Australia's record is so good and England's so poor. Similarly, with the fifth Test being moved from Perth, another day-nighter would be welcomed by the tourists.

Prediction: Australia 2-2 England.

Former Australia bowler and six-time Ashes winner Glenn McGrath

Do I predict with my heart or my head? I've painted myself into a corner in that if I say anything other than 5-0, people will say I'm not confident any more. The first Test is very important. If Australia can get off to a good start then, fair enough, 5-0.

Both teams have a few issues and it will be who settles the quickest. I'm predicting an Australia win - not 5-0, but if they are dominant in the first Test I might readjust.

Prediction: Australia 5-0 England (depending on the result of the first Test).

TMS commentator Alison Mitchell

The series might be a lot more even than people who are favouring Australia presume. The fact that Pat Cummins have been elevated to captaincy is a bit of an unknown and changes the dynamic among the team.

It will come down to how many times England can take 20 wickets and how many times their batters can withstand the much-vaunted Australia bowling attack.

England will have their best chance in the day-night Test in Adelaide and if the final Test does end up being in Hobart that might better suit them too.

Prediction: Australia 2-2 England.

TMS commentator Simon Mann

The build-up to the series has been unprecedented: little preparation, Australia's late change of captain, poor weather, Covid and uncertainty over venues - we still don't know if the series will comprise two day-night Tests. Does that mean it is harder to predict what's going to happen? Possibly.

The bottom line, though, is that only one England team in nearly 90 years - Ray Illingworth's team in 1970-71 - have regained the Ashes in Australia. India exposed England's weaknesses earlier this year. Surely Australia are good enough to do the same, even with Ben Stokes back for England.

Prediction: Australia 3-1 England.

TMS commentator Daniel Norcross

When Ben Stokes wasn't in the side, I thought England would probably lose 5-0. When he was added, I thought they'd lose 4-1. Now we've seen rain and the lack of preparation for both sides, which has evened things up ever so slightly. Australia have fewer seamers to rotate and the possibility of two day-night Tests certainly plays into England's hands.

Prediction: Australia 2-1 England.

BBC Radio 5 Live cricket reporter Eleanor Oldroyd

This must be one of the most unpredictable Ashes series in decades - an unprecedented lack of preparation for both sides, both embroiled in controversy off the field, a new variant of Covid-19 and the La Nina weather pattern.

Neither team is universally strong in every position, but both have game-changing players - and they'll rely heavily on them. We could be in for many more hours of watching Steve Smith bat but, equally, Joe Root is looking to become the highest-scoring Test batsman in a calendar year.

Josh Hazlewood is going to be key in Australia's attack, but I can't wait to see if Ollie Robinson, who is a not dissimilar bowler, can really make a mark in his first Ashes. It could be one to savour.

Prediction: Australia 2-2 England.

TMS statistician Andy Zaltzman

I've been gazing into my statistical crystal ball and, well, it doesn't work or it is saying things I don't want to think about. Seven of the past eight England Ashes ventures to Australia have resulted in soul-crushing, joy-sapping hammerings, but I'm going to go for a wildly optimistic 2-2.

There are a couple of reasons. Firstly, the weather. It is a La Nina summer and in the last 120 years England have won the Ashes five times in nine La Nina Australian summers, but only once in seven El Nino summers.

Secondly, Alex Carey is making his Test debut behind the stumps for Australia. The last seven times an Australia wicketkeeper has made his debut in an Ashes Test, going back to the 1950s, England have won the series.

Let's add a small dose of realism and we can downgrade the statistically certain 4-0 England win to a more achievable 2-2.

Prediction: Australia 2-2 England.

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