Ashes 2023: Andy Zaltzman on why England's profligacy is costing them

Ben Stokes, in particular, has been guilty of bowling too many no-balls in this Ashes series

FACT 1: After two Test matches, England have a better collective batting average than Australia in this summer's Ashes.

FACT 2: England are 2-0 down.

It is a strange cricketing universe in which both of those statements are true.

The word "unbelievable" is the most overused in the sporting lexicon, by an incredible (which is in second place) margin.

"Unbelievable" has come to be interchangeable with "good", "mildly surprising" and even, on occasion, "entirely within the laws of the game".

This series, however, is defying statistical precedent, probability and believability, as series involving the Stokesian England have tended to do.

It has also generated a familiar, almost traditional, scoreline of Australia 2-0 England after two Tests.

The numerical facts are that England have scored 1260 runs off the bat to Australia's 1245.

After Stokes' eight-wickets-down declaration and Australia's two-wicket win at Edgbaston, followed by a 40-wicket second Test (only the fourth Lord's Ashes Test out of 37 in which all possible wickets have fallen), both sides have lost 38 wickets.

Thus, England's batting line-up has a collective average of 33.1, Australia's 32.7.

England have, however, conceded 60 more extras than Australia (118 to 58), leaving them 45 runs behind in total, accounting for the 43-run margin at Lord's and the two runs by which the Baggy Greensters overtook England at Edgbaston.

England are the 274th team in men's Test history to find themselves 2-0 down after two Tests of a series.

As you would probably expect, none of the previous 273 had a higher collective batting average after those two Tests than the opposition against whom they have lost consecutive matches (and only a handful have come close).

Of all the statistical quirks and fascinations this compelling series has already generated, this may be the most extraordinary.

Furthermore, only four teams have been 2-0 after two Tests with a higher collective batting average than England's 33.1 (one of which was Pakistan, against England, last December).

No team has ever scored faster and lost the first two Tests of a Test series - England have scored at 4.36 per over so far, the highest rate by either side in the first two matches of any Ashes series, and 31% faster than Australia's 3.31.

By comparison, after two Tests of the last Ashes series, before the Stokes-McCullum revolution, England were scoring 30% slower than Australia.

In essence, England have played winning cricket and, for various reasons, many within their control, many due to Australian quality and resilience in decisive phases, have lost.

England being 2-0 down will be a familiar sensation to many - this is the 11th Ashes series out of the 19 played since 1989 in which Australia have won the first two Tests.

England have enjoyed a 2-0 lead after two only twice since the Second World War (1978-79 and 2013), and only once in a home series since 1890.

However, in the more traditionally one-sided thrashings, those seen in recent tours to Australia and in all available hemispheres during the Baggy Green dominance from 1989 to 2003, England have been somewhere between outplayed and humiliated.

In those 10 recent series in which they have been 2-0 up after two, Australia's batters have averaged between 13 and 42 runs per dismissal more than England's (as a percentage, between 47% and 162% more).

This summer, England have thus far out-batted Australia, albeit by a fractional, fragile, barely-perceptible amount that stretches the meaning of the term "out-batted".

This year's scoreline has statistical novelty to go with its febrile on-pitch drama. And never, after two Ashes Tests, has either side had a worse extras conceded difference than minus 60.

England have bowled 41 no-balls to 15, and conceded 31 byes to 9 which, while not the only decisive factor in this contest of multiple gossamer-fine margins, has certainly been a significant hindrance.

Both sides have missed numerous opportunities in the field which have had varying impacts on the Tests, ranging from minimal to game-changing, but England more than Australia.

Ignoring borderline-impossible technical catch chances, I make it that England have missed 14 makeable-to-good opportunities, to Australia's seven (including wickets off no-balls and unreferred lbw appeals that would have proved out).

Until the late stages at Lord's, Australia had a significantly higher Runs Added After Reprieve total (RAAR - a new cricketing metric that I would like to see you all use in everyday conversation within the next week).

Khawaja, for example, has been the most influential player of the series, but could have been out for 112, 5, 1 and 19, instead of 141, 65, 17 and 77.

We have seen two fascinating matches which have swung and shifted on numerous narrative pivots, and undulated through phases of searing drama, elongated inertia and Laws-related squabblings.

There are numerous alternative universes in which different versions of the series are playing out.

England are, variously, level at 1-1 after the unstumped Bairstow clattered England to victory; 2-0 down anyway after the unstumped Bairstow was cleaned up in Pat Cummins' next over and a demoralised England subsided in minutes; 2-0 up after not gambling away positions of strength in both Tests; 2-0 down after Nathan Lyon's calf muscle failed to pop, or after the coin and swing-inducing Lord's clouds favoured Australia.

Perhaps most realistically, the teams are still locked at 0-0 after back-to-back tied Tests.

In the dimension that the actual series is actually happening, however, the one where the laws of physics and cricket both apply, even when we would rather ignore them or make up our own more convenient versions, English errors have been decisive.

Stokes and his team are left needing even more genuinely unbelievable feats, and equally unbelievable stats, to rescue the series.

The unresponsive pitches and minimal-movement balls have made this a difficult series for bowlers.

Both sides' attacks have managed to concoct wickets out of these unhelpful conditions, often through the bouncer barrages that have proved a highly effective tactic, but one that has created - outside of Stokes' pyrotechnics - a somewhat monochrome spectacle.

To highlight how challenging it has been for bowlers, Lord's was the second consecutive Test in which all four innings have exceeded 270.

There had only been three such matches previously in Ashes Tests in England (Old Trafford in 2005, Lord's in 1953, and Headingley in 1948, which was also the last Test before Lord's last week in which England scored 325 or more in both innings and lost).

No bowler on either side has taken a five-wicket haul, making this only the fifth Ashes contest out of 72 in which neither team has recorded a five-for in the first two matches of a series.

These games have featured five of the world's top 10 bowlers in the current Test rankings, and two more inside the top 16.

At Lord's, Australia became the first team ever to select four bowlers with 200 or more Test wickets.

England have an opening pair with almost 1300 wickets, and Robinson, who has made one of the best statistical starts to a Test career by any bowler in the last 100 years.

The skill, resilience and persistence of both attacks has elevated the series above the stodgery of the surfaces it has been played on.

Stokes makes his own records

Ben Stokes is a cricketer who transcends traditional statistics.

He has, by historical standards, a decent batting average, a decent bowling average, and has been one of the most extraordinary and influential cricketers the game has seen.

His latest Ashes masterpiece generated suitably astonishing stats.

Not only did England's captain become the first player to reach a Test hundred with three consecutive sixes, and make the highest fourth-innings score by someone batting at number six or lower, and set a new Ashes record for most sixes in an innings, and become only the second player to hit nine or more sixes in two different Test innings (after his coach, Brendon McCullum), but he also made a fourth-innings score of 120-plus for the third time in his career.

Only one other player in Test history has scored 120 in the fourth innings more than twice - the Pakistan great Younis Khan, who did so four times.

Stokes joins Yorkshire stalwart Herbert Sutcliffe and Undisputed Greatest Batster Of All Time Donald Bradman on a short and illustrious list of players with three fourth-innings Ashes centuries.

Only Sutcliffe and Graham Gooch have made three fourth-innings Test hundreds for England.

Neither of them also had the capacity to bowl 12 overs of bouncers on one functioning leg. Statistics, schmatistics.