The key battles - where the Ashes will be won and lost

Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up. A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch the West Australian newspaper has called a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling (we'll come to spin later), no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years. There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world. Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler. A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement - seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra was introduced, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving. When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes is dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes series. Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests. Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up. Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012. The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected - England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook? Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more. Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times. The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia. His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole. Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo - sure to attract the attention of leftie hunter Jofra Archer.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia. Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely. Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests across 2025, Australia's top three average a collective 25.37 - only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior - spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game. England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years. In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl. Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling? It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand. In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test. Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986. Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide - England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a Packer-ravaged Australia in 1978.

This time the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth has hosted an Ashes opener before but this will be the first time it will not be at the fabled Waca - scene of many an England humbling - but the shiny new Perth Stadium. It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter. The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies. Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide. In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match - against India last year. Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in day-night matches is batters seeing the ball under floodlights. It is therefore questionable why England are sending a Lions team to play the Prime Minister's XI under the lights in Canberra between the first and second Tests, when the Ashes squad could be gaining valuable practice.