Premier League: The most unpredictable season?

Premier League players celebrate and look dejectedImage source, Other
Image caption,

The Premier League has thrown up numerous surprises this season

It is the Premier League season that has everyone scratching their heads.

Champions Chelsea are down in 14th. Leicester, bottom at Christmas last year, are top less than 12 months later.

In fact, as this image below shows, the old cliche that anyone can beat anyone has never been more apt. Undoubtedly, there have been some strange results.

But just how unusual has this season really been and what have been the key factors in making it so unpredictable? BBC Sport crunches the numbers to find out.

Chelsea go from champions to chumps

Chelsea's start to the season is the worst of any reigning Premier League champion.

In fact, Blackburn are the only other side to have picked up fewer than 20 points in the first 15 games of a title defence.

Chelsea and Manchester United have mounted the best starts to a defence, both registering 40 points in 2005-06 and 1993-94 respectively.

Points by defending champions in first 15 games

Season

Team

Points

Season

Team

Points

2005-06

Chelsea

40

1993-94

Man Utd

40

2000-01

Man Utd

36

2011-12

Man Utd

36

2006-07

Chelsea

35

1994-95

Man Utd

34

2009-10

Man Utd

34

2003-04

Man Utd

34

2014-15

Man City

33

2012-13

Man City

33

2007-08

Man Utd

33

1999-00

Man Utd

33

2002-03

Arsenal

32

2004-05

Arsenal

31

1997-98

Man Utd

31

2008-09

Man Utd

31

2010-11

Chelsea

29

1996-97

Man Utd

26

1998-99

Arsenal

25

2013-14

Man Utd

22

2001-02

Man Utd

21

1995-96

Blackburn

18

2015-16

Chelsea

15

Tight at the top

This is reasonably unusual. There are just six points between top side Leicester and fifth-placed Tottenham - it's only been that close one other time in the past 10 seasons.

Big boys get beaten

Image source, PA

Last season's top two of Chelsea and Manchester City have lost a combined total of 12 games this term - the highest over the past 10 seasons.

Defeats in first 15 games for previous season's top two

Season

First

Second

Total

2015-16

Chelsea (8)

Man City (4)

12

2014-15

Man City (2)

Liverpool (6)

8

2013-14

Man Utd (5)

Man City (4)

9

2012-13

Man City (0)

Man Utd (3)

3

2011-12

Man Utd (1)

Chelsea (4)

5

2010-11

Chelsea (4)

Man Utd (0)

4

2009-10

Man Ud (3)

Liverpool (5)

8

2008-09

Man Utd (2)

Chelsea (2)

4

2007-08

Man Utd (2)

Chelsea (2)

4

2006-07

Chelsea (2)

Man Utd (1)

3

Away the lads

Image source, .

Teams are loving an away day this season.

There have been 51 away victories from 150 Premier League games this term - that's 34% of fixtures.

Of the 9,130 games in Premier League history, 27.25% have ended with a win for the visitors.

New boys bucking the trend?

Image source, Getty/Reuters

The three promoted teams of Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich are all currently out of the relegation zone, which you might think is unusual.

Lately, it's not been that uncommon.

In fact, it has happened twice in the previous five seasons. Newcastle United, West Brom and Blackpool were above the drop zone at this point in 2010-11, as were QPR, Norwich and Swansea in 2011-12.

However, those are the only three times the feat has occurred in the past decade, and rarely do one of those sides beat the champions, as Bournemouth did when winning 1-0 at Chelsea on Saturday.

Image source, Lineker
Image caption,

Match of the Day presenter Gary Lineker is enjoying his former club Leicester being top of the table

Will Leicester win the league?

The team that's top in early December is most likely to go on to claim the title, right?

If history is any indicator, Leicester City have actually got almost a 50-50 chance of causing a massive shock and becoming champions.

Where does the team top after 15 games finish?

Season

Team

Final position

Season

Team

Final position

1993

Norwich

3rd

2005

Chelsea

1st

1994

Man Utd

1st

2006

Chelsea

1st

1995

Man Utd

2nd

2007

Man Utd

1st

1996

Newcastle

2nd

2008

Arsenal

3rd

1997

Arsenal

3rd

2009

Liverpool

2nd

1998

Man Utd

2nd

2010

Chelsea

1st

1999

Aston Villa

6th

2011

Man Utd

1st

2000

Man Utd

1st

2012

Man City

1st

2001

Man Utd

1st

2013

Man Utd

1st

2002

Liverpool

2nd

2014

Arsenal

3rd

2003

Arsenal

2nd

2015

Chelsea

1st

2004

Chelsea

2nd

2016

Leicester

?

In Premier League history, the team top after 15 games has gone on to win the title 47.8% of the time. And that rises to 72.7% over the past 11 seasons.

Manchester United have been top after 15 games eight times - and have converted that into a title on six occasions

But of the eight different clubs to be top at this stage, only three - Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea - have gone on to win the title.

Or is it same old, same old?

It's all very intriguing, but then again, a quick comparison of the table this year with how it ended last season suggests little has changed.

Four of the current top six finished in the top six last season...

And the current bottom three...

Image source, Chris Osborne

Well they all just about survived last season...

And even in mid-table...

There's a familiar look to how it finished up last term, with four of the same six teams occupying the middle six positions.

So maybe the world of the Premier League hasn't been completely turned upside down just yet.

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