Championship: Can Cardiff City or Swansea City triumph in play-off race?
- Published
Cardiff's Robert Glatzel (left) and Swansea forward Andre Ayew (right) could be key for their respective sides in the final push for a play-off place
Cardiff City and Swansea City remain in the race for the Championship play-offs as the finishing line comes into view.
The Bluebirds have four games to play in this longest of seasons while the Swans have a game in hand, with the two Welsh sides among a clutch of clubs hoping 2019-20 will be stretched by another couple of weeks thanks to a top-six finish.
Automatic promotion hopes are long gone for Cardiff and Swansea, with Leeds United, West Bromwich Albion and Brentford seemingly battling it out for the top two places.
The most likely scenario at this point is that the Bees will be in the play-offs alongside Fulham and fifth-placed Nottingham Forest, who are seven points clear of Derby County in seventh.
In between the two East Midlands clubs are Cardiff, with Swansea one place below the Rams in eighth.
Then come the likes of Blackburn, Millwall and Preston North End, for whom all hope may not yet be lost.
But whose promotion hopes will be over when the regular season ends 22 July, and who will be preparing for a shot at reaching the Premier League?
What is needed?
Last season, Frank Lampard's Derby claimed the final play-off place.
They had 74 points, which is the average number required to finish sixth in the second tier over the last 20 seasons.
The highest sixth-placed points tally during that period was a whopping 80 points, racked up by Fulham in 2016-17, while the lowest was just 68, which was enough to send Leicester City's season into overtime in 2012-13.
Cardiff currently have 64 points - three more than Derby - while Swansea are on 60.
Who is in form?
Nobody knew what to expect after coronavirus caused a three-month break in the season, but Cardiff and Derby came back firing.
Neil Harris' Cardiff had taken 10 points from a possible 12 until their momentum was checked by a 3-2 home loss to Blackburn on Tuesday.
Derby have three wins and a draw from four outings since football returned, while Forest had been going well until suffering a setback against Fulham on Tuesday.
Swansea have seven points from four games, while Millwall and Preston have only one post-lockdown victory between them.
Blackburn's win at Cardiff put them a point behind the Swans, but Bristol City appear to have slipped out of contention thanks to poor form in recent weeks, while Brentford - with five straight wins - and Fulham look secure in the top six already.
Cardiff City: Blackburn defeat is 'a kick up the backside' - Neil Harris
Swansea, who are not helped by injury issues in central defence, are still trying to rediscover the kind of form which saw them lead the Championship in the early stages of the campaign.
It was a while ago now, but Steve Cooper's side began the season with five wins and a draw from six matches.
They may need something similar at the end of the campaign if they are to make the top six.
The season has lasted 11 months already, but Neil Harris and Steve Cooper are hoping their respective teams will still be in action come the play-off final on 4 August
What is to come?
Cardiff have home games against Derby and Hull to come either side of trips to Fulham and Middlesbrough.
Swansea go to Birmingham on Wednesday and must also visit Nottingham Forest and Reading, while leaders Leeds and Bristol City are due at the Liberty Stadium.
Forest also play Stoke at home and face trips to Preston and Barnsley.
Derby have what looks on paper like the trickiest run-in, with games at West Brom and Birmingham as well as Cardiff and home meetings with Brentford and Leeds.
Millwall will welcome Middlesbrough, Blackburn and Hull to the Den while travelling to Hull and Queens Park Rangers.
Preston have three away days left, at Sheffield Wednesday, Brentford and Bristol City, with Birmingham as well as Forest to come at Deepdale.
The loss of Joe Rodon to an ankle injury was a blow to Swansea's play-off hopes
What are they saying?
Cardiff manager Neil Harris: "We have been a team that's been written off and written off and we've come from nowhere to be in a strong position. We have just got to keep winning games and keep trying to strengthen our position.
"With every passing matchday, we are closer to our goal of making the play-offs."
Swansea head coach Steve Cooper: "There is not long to go but I think a lot will happen.
"We just need to focus on Birmingham. It's similar to (after) Middlesbrough - we have got to back up a win with another win. We will see where it takes us."
Lockdown gave the injured Lee Tomlin, who has been an important player under Neil Harris, the chance to recover from injury
BBC Wales football correspondent Rob Phillips:
Hands up Cardiff City fans who predicted their team would be in the Championship top six with four games to go? Anyone? Thought not!
The Bluebirds are the football restart's surprise package.
Neil Harris has been particularly adept at using his squad depth. Substitutes have become, as England rugby coach Eddie Jones would say, the "finishers".
Four of Cardiff's eight goals since the break have come from substitutes. Three clean sheets - with captain Sean Morrison and Curtis Nelson dominant in those displays -were the platform for Cardiff's good run.
The next two games will test their resolve, but Cardiff will be no-one's pushover if they get to play-offs.
Swansea City are not out of it.
Injuries to Joe Rodon and Ben Wilmot have been untimely for Steve Cooper's men. A home defeat by Luton appeared to knock the wind out of their sails and they have little scope for slips now.
But after a poor first half, the Swans showed more of their verve to beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 to boost confidence and regain belief.
In Rhian Brewster and Andre Ayew they have quality where it counts.
After Wednesday's visit to Birmingham, they entertain leaders Leeds ahead of a trip to Nottingham Forest.
Following those games, we should know whether either Welsh club will be extending this elongated season.