Serbia v Scotland: Euro 2020 play-off offers generational achievement

'We know the magnitude of the prize'

By Tom English
BBC Scotland

Euro 2020 play-off final: Serbia v Scotland

Venue: Rajko Mitic Stadium, Belgrade Date: Thursday, 12 November Time: 19:45 GMT

Coverage: Listen to commentary on BBC Radio Scotland and follow live text updates on the BBC Sport website & app; watch highlights on Sportscene

Not that we're counting, you understand. Not that the last 22 years are burned into the consciousness of all Scotland fans, but that's how long it has been since the men's senior team last played a game at a major championship.

Twenty-two years. Or 268 months, or 1168 weeks or 8,178 days if you really want to be precise. Leaving the pitch after a 3-0 loss to Morocco that put them put them out of the 1998 World Cup, the Scotland players would have been a pretty demoralised crew.

Imagine you told them then that most of them would be in their 50s and their manager, Craig Brown, would be in his 80s and they'd still be waiting for Scotland to get back to that kind of stage. You wouldn't have needed consoling words that day in Saint-Etienne, you'd have needed smelling salts - and possibly stretchers.

It's been largely grim for more than two decades. The 1-1 and the 2-2 in Toftir against the Faroes, the 1-0 loss to Belarus in Glasgow, the 1-0 loss to Macedonia in Skopje, the 4-0 in Norway, the 3-0 in Slovakia, the 3-0 in Kazakhstan.

Snapshots from 20 years of post-mortems on the state of the game. Teachers' strike, street football, the weather, computer games. The crisis has been played out on a loop. Reports have been commissioned and chins have been stroked. Managers have been counted in and managers have been counted out, almost all of them diminished and scarred by the experience.

A generation of Scots have seen Latvia, Albania and Bulgaria at the Euros in their lifetime but not their own country. They've seen Tunisia, Trinidad & Tobago and Togo at a World Cup, but have never known the sensation of seeing their own team at one of these things.

Since Scotland last appeared at a major championship, 31 different countries have qualified for the Euros and 60 different nations have made it to the World Cup. On the outside, it's been painful and pitiful.

Thursday night in Belgrade might change all of that. The emphasis is on the 'might'. Scotland fans have hope but surely not expectation. Optimism is superficial. Fatalism is entrenched. How could it be any other way after going so long without success?

Scotland are the underdogs against Serbia but Steve Clarke's players have some momentum behind them. Eight games unbeaten, three clean sheets on the bounce, confidence where previously there was anxiety, clarity where before there was confusion.

They have a chance. With Serbia, the temptation is to look at the victory over a strong Norway that took them to this final and think that they're streets ahead of Scotland. They might only have won 2-1 after extra time, but they battered the Norwegians. They had 19 attempts on goal and could, and probably should, have scored four or five.

'Scotland must hit new high'

Clarke will have looked at that game in microscopic detail. Norway went into it with the clear belief that if Serbia scored two they would score three, if Serbia got three, they would get four. The game was wide open and madcap. Clarke would rather stick pins in his own eyes than ape Norway's gameplan.

He won't want to take them on in a display of attacking football, he'll want to frustrate them in a fierce battle. A 1-0 win in normal time, extra-time or a victory in a penalty shoot-out will be just perfect. If the game is an entertainment-fest then that's not how Clarke will have planned it.

Serbia's team is full of clever and aggressive attackers - Dusan Tadic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Aleksandar Mitrovic - and there's much chat around them, unsurprisingly. This is a team, though, that in the last year conceded two goals against Luxembourg at home, two against Ukraine at home, three against Russia away, one against Hungary at home (it was the only goal of the night) and two against Turkey away.

It's not just the volume of goals they've given up that's making Serbia fans a touch jumpy about Thursday night, it's the way they've been given up. The two most recent games - Turkey and Hungary - saw them concede three shockers, three goals borne out of rank awful defending. They were a mess at the back against Ukraine and Luxembourg and got off somewhat lightly with shipping only three against the Russians.

SNS/BBC Sport

The wit of their midfield and the forcefulness of Mitrovic might well get them through, but this is not a vastly superior side Scotland are playing, it's not a team that has taken any side to the cleaners in quite some time. There is great strength but clear weakness in their ranks.

The feelgood in this Scotland squad is undeniable, but it's been created on the back of wining tight games played mostly at home. Of the eight they've played without loss, six have been at Hampden. The last three have brought just two goals. Going away from home against by far the best opposition Scotland will have played since this run began is a challenge of a different magnitude.

In all probability, none of what we've seen so far is going to be good enough to win this final. They need to hit a new high.

Clarke says he's known his team for a while now. It would be a surprise if Kieran Tierney doesn't return as left centre-back. Stuart Armstrong is another who'll tempt him. With Ryan Jack, Callum McGregor and John McGinn almost certain to start and Ryan Fraser sadly ruled out, it might come down to a choice between Armstrong, fourth in the Premier League with Southampton, and Ryan Christie, regaining his form with Celtic. As choices go, it's not a bad one to have to make.

A win worth so much

There are so many dimensions to this - national pride and, of course, football finance. Rarely before has money been so tight at the SFA. Covid-19 has floored the association. A £5m loan has been sought to tide them over. If Scotland win this game they will immediately be in line for £8.2m from UEFA for qualifying.

They'd get £1.3m for any win, or £670,000 for any draw, they might achieve in their group games against the Czech Republic at Hampden on June 14, England at Wembley on June 18 and Croatia at Hampden on June 22.

On top of its potential significance in inspiring young Scottish football fans deprived of the glories of cheering their country at a major championship, it's a £9m game in Belgrade. You can do a lot of good with £9m.

A lot of grassroots work that is in jeopardy because of the coronavirus, a lot of financial assistance for projects that are currently on hold, a lot of comfort for clubs that the association's rainy day fund is no longer bone dry.

Clarke will be composed, we know that. He'll give off a vibe of just another game on just another night. That's his style. If his team are as cool and as clinical and as mentally strong as the manager, then something remarkable might be about to happen.