Euro 2020: What do Wales need to reach last 16?
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Euro 2020: Who could Wales face in the last 16?
Euro 2020 on the BBC |
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Dates: 11 June-11 July. Venues: Amsterdam, Baku, Bucharest, Budapest, Copenhagen, Glasgow, London, Munich, Rome, Seville, St-Petersburg. Coverage: Live on BBC TV, BBC Radio 5 Live, iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app. Click here for more details |
Wales' thrilling 2-0 win over Turkey on Wednesday, coupled with their opening draw with Switzerland, puts them within touching distance of the last 16.
The first piece of good news for Robert Page's side is that in Euro 2016 - where Wales famously reached the semi-finals - every team in the group stage with four or more points advanced to the knock-out stage.
The second good tiding is that Wales cannot now finish lower than third in Group A thanks to Italy's 3-0 wins over Turkey and Switzerland, in a tournament where four of the six best third-placed teams qualify.
A win or draw in Rome against group favourites Italy on Sunday will guarantee Wales' involvement in the last 16 as Group A winners or runners-up.
A trip to Wembley on Saturday, 26 June awaits the group winners - to face the runner-up from Group C that has Austria, the Netherlands and Ukraine in contention.
The Azzurri's win over the Swiss on Wednesday extended their unbeaten run to 29 games - stretching back to September 2018 - the last 10 of which have been wins in which Roberto Mancini's side have scored 31 goals and conceded none.
It is a daunting prospect for Wales, but with Italy already qualified for the last 16 there is hope that they may take their foot off the accelerator on Sunday at the Stadio Olimpico - with Mancini potentially opting to rest some of his frontline players and give others game time.
Even a defeat could well be enough for second place, as the Swiss must beat Turkey in Baku the same afternoon and overhaul a five-goal deficit on Wales.
Taking all those factors into consideration, the greatest likelihood is that Wales will advance as Group A runners-up to take on the Group B runners-up in Amsterdam on 26 June, with old foes Belgium, plus Russia, Finland and Denmark potential opponents.
If Wales finish third they are still likely to progress though, but it will be abacus time to decide whether the players and the Red Wall faithful travel to one of Seville, Bucharest or Glasgow and who they will play next.
If it is Glasgow then the top side of Spain, Slovakia, Sweden or Poland awaits at Hampden Park; Bucharest could be a showdown with either Portugal, Germany or France - with Hungary up against it with those heavyweights in Group F; Seville would be against the Group B winners from Belgium's pool.
Euro 2020 - final group standings regulations
Article 20 Equality of points:
20.01 If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the final tournament group stage, the following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine their rankings:
a. higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question;
b. superior goal difference resulting from the matches played among the teams in question;
c. higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question;
d. if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to i) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal:
e. superior goal difference in all group matches;
f. higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
g. higher number of wins in all group matches;
h. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
i. position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings.
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