England v Germany: Stakes so high for Gareth Southgate in Euro 2020 last 16
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Gareth Southgate will reach a defining point in his time as England manager when his side face Germany in the last 16 of Euro 2020 at Wembley on Tuesday.
It is not a "now or never" moment for Southgate, with the Football Association declaring its admiration for his work since he was appointed permanent successor to Sam Allardyce in November 2016 and is planning to open talks to extend his contract beyond the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
The outcome of the latest meeting between these two great rivals will, however, shape perceptions of the job Southgate has done after reaching the knockout stage with wins against Croatia and the Czech Republic, as well as a draw with Scotland, without conceding a goal.
If England win, Southgate will be viewed as the manager who has shifted history slightly back in their favour in this fixture and opened up what could be a favourable path to their first major tournament final since West Germany were beaten in the 1966 World Cup at Wembley.
If England lose, Southgate will face questions about just how far this England team have really travelled and why they are still missing the ruthless winning mentality that has seen them slip at crucial times, such as the 2018 World Cup semi-final against Croatia in Moscow.
Southgate's record is impressive and is the reason behind the "unwavering" support FA chief executive Mark Bullingham says he enjoys. He has overseen victory in 36 out of his 57 games with a win ratio of 63%. Of managers who have taken charge of 10 England games or more, only Fabio Capello has achieved a higher win rate of 66.7%.
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Capello, who saw his World Cup hopes end in South Africa in 2010 when England were outclassed 4-1 by Germany in the last 16, knew international managerial reigns are judged on performances in major tournaments and his tenure was never the same after Bloemfontein.
This is why the stakes are so high for Southgate when they face Joachim Low's talented but inconsistent Germany in front of 40,000 fans at Wembley.
England's supporters took real encouragement from the run to the last four in 2018 but the loss to Croatia placed into sharp focus the fact they had beaten all the teams they should have done in Russia, such as Tunisia and Panama, as well as overcoming Colombia in the last 16 on penalties and Sweden in the quarter-final but lost to the higher-class opponents such as Belgium - twice - and their semi-final conquerors.
And even in the inaugural Uefa Nations League finals in Portugal, England came unstuck at the first hurdle with a 3-1 loss to a Netherlands side in the very early stages of a rebuild.
Southgate and England need to pull out a statement result at the knockout stage of a major tournament to deliver on the credit they have earned - while the manager and players need to show they can produce when the pressure is on.
England have a grim record of falling short against 'elite' countries when it gets to this phase of tournaments. If they do not prevail on Tuesday, familiar flaws will be revisited and examined - and Southgate and his players will not escape that searching scrutiny.
This England team, however, has a real chance of beating Germany, who dazzled when overpowering Portugal 4-2 but were not convincing when losing to France and only getting their crucial point late on against Hungary.
And while this is not a vintage Germany team, beating it would not only provide a hefty confidence boost but would also set up a relatively favourable route to the final.
The possibility of meeting Sweden or Ukraine in the next match then the possibility of either Denmark or the Czech Republic in the last four at Wembley would be no easy ride - but the other half of the draw looks a lot less appetising even with the latest surprising results.
Southgate is still accused in some quarters of conservatism, especially given the attacking riches at his disposal, and just two goals in three group games - both scored by Raheem Sterling - feeds into that.
The other side of the argument is that England, so far at least, have looked defensively sound and have yet to concede a goal, with influential Manchester United captain Harry Maguire now back at the heart of the rearguard after injury.
Southgate will not be interested in singing a redemption song after his much-revisited penalty miss in the Euro 96 semi-final against Germany at the very place, if not the very stadium, where he will look to inspire what would arguably be the biggest result of his tenure. It is only the here and now, this outcome, that matters.
Victory will elevate the status of Southgate the manager and offer England a genuine chance of landing the major prize that has eluded them for so long. Defeat would be a heavy body blow to him.
England and Germany is a football rivalry that always stirs the soul whenever or wherever it is played.
This is a night with much riding on it for a popular manager with an excellent record - but who needs victory over a team like Germany in a game of this magnitude to confirm the FA's faith in him and convince those who still have doubts.
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