Scottish Premiership: Who needs what as decisive weekend looms in top-six race?
- Published
Seven teams still in contention, three places up for grabs, one game each remaining. The scramble for the Scottish Premiership top six goes to the wire.
After the dust settled on last Saturday's drama, the pecking order has shifted slightly but there remains just a four-point gap between fourth-place Dundee United and 10th, now occupied by St Mirren.
This weekend - the final round of fixtures before the division splits in half for the final five games - will be season defining for the cluster of clubs vying to join Celtic, Rangers and Hearts in the Premiership elite.
The margin between success and failure is as paper thin as a stressed-out chairman's balance sheet...
Who needs what?
Dundee United look secure. A draw in the derby with bottom club Dundee at Tannadice on Saturday would get them over the line on 41 points.
The only way Thomas Courts' side can miss out is if they lose, Hibernian and Ross County both win, and there's a winner in the Livingston v Motherwell game, along with a goal difference swing.
Booking their spot while sending Dundee closer to the relegation trap door would be the icing on the cake for the Tannadice men.
The meeting of Aberdeen and Ross County, who sit ninth and seventh, should be a cracker at Pittodrie. Both teams need victory - and for Hibs to fail to beat Hearts.
A win for Motherwell, currently fifth, at Livingston will do the trick. A draw will be enough for the Steelmen should Hibs or County fail to win. Defeat would even suffice if Hibs lose while Aberdeen and County draw.
However, victory will be no easy feat on the artificial pitch at Livingston, who must win themselves to have a chance after dropping from sixth to eighth after a controversial defeat at St Johnstone.
Davie Martindale's side would also require Hibs and County to both not win.
Hibs are sixth at the moment but in a rather sticky spot, chasing three points at Tynecastle in the Edinburgh derby. A draw would be enough if none of the teams below them win, but that requires Aberdeen and County to also share the spoils.
Shaun Maloney's side may still sneak in with a narrow defeat, if Aberdeen and County draw (Hibs are four goals better off than the latter), and Livingston and St Mirren both fail to win.
St Mirren - who host Rangers - look all but condemned to the bottom half. They have to hammer the champions to improve the second-worst goal difference in the division AND hope Hibs and Livingston lose, while Aberdeen and County draw.
Potential prize for fifth place?
There's an extra sweetener at stake once the top-six line-up is finalised. The way the Scottish Cup has unfolded means there is a greater chance fifth place in the Premiership will be rewarded with continental competition.
Celtic and Rangers will be in the Champions League next season, so should the winner of their semi-final go on to claim the cup, Scotland's sole Europa League spot - in the play-off round - would be awarded to the team finishing third in the league, highly likely to be Hearts.
As a consequence, the teams in fourth and fifth would earn Europa Conference League football, at the third and second round of qualifying respectively. That would also come to pass if Hearts win the cup.
In fact, the only way the fifth-placed finishers would not be in Europe is if Hibs beat Hearts in the other semi-final, win the cup and finish outside the top four.
All clear? Good. Let the drama continue...