Premier League predictions 2023-24: BBC Sport pundits pick their top four

BBC

Manchester City made it a hat-trick of Premier League titles when they won the Treble last season - now they have a new target.

Pep Guardiola's side are aiming to become the first team in the 135-year history of English league football to be crowned champions four times in a row - and the challenge for everyone else is to stop them.

Arsenal faltered in the final weeks of last season after spending 248 days at the top of the table - will they last the distance this time, and who else will figure at the top?

Can Manchester United build on their third-place finish by mounting a serious title bid for the first time since they were champions in 2013?

Newcastle are back in the Champions League this season after a 20-year absence, but will they stay in the top four? Could Liverpool be contenders again? Can Tottenham or Chelsea rise from mid-table under new managers? Or will anyone else be in the mix?

We asked 27 BBC TV and radio pundits to pick their top four, with explanations for their selections.

These predictions were made on the basis of how each squad shaped up on Thursday, 10 August, with more than three weeks to go until the transfer window shuts at 23:00 BST on 1 September.

Seven teams feature in the forecasted top fours, but only Manchester City and Arsenal feature in all 27.

In terms of who will win it, City are overwhelming favourites with 26 votes, while the Gunners get the other one.

(using system of 4 pts for a 1st place, 3 pts for 2nd, 2 pts for 3rd and 1 pt for 4th)

Man City - 'The best squad, manager and striker'

City have now been the BBC pundits' pre-season favourites in seven of the eight seasons since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016, but they have never been backed to this extent before - 96% (26/27) think they will be champions again this time; the previous highest was 88% (21/24) in 2018-19.

Micah Richards: Their squad is still better than everyone else's. They won't win the Treble again, but they will win the Premier League.

Danny Gabbidon: They've not just got the best squad, they've got the best manager in Pep Guardiola and have the best striker on the planet in Erling Haaland.

Jermaine Beckford: The way they play makes it so hard to stop them, and how do you stop Haaland? He scored 52 goals in 54 games for City last season, and you can be sure his numbers will be incredible this season too.

Fara Williams: City are at the top for as long as Guardiola stays there.

Chris Sutton: The other top clubs have done some very good work in this transfer window but you can't look past City for the title. Guardiola evolves something every year - some tweak to his tactics will emerge and another player always seems to step in and become key.

Chris Sutton joins Ashley Williams and Jason Mohammad on Final Score on Saturday, from 14:30 BST on the red button and the BBC Sport website, and from 16:30 on BBC Two.

Nedum Onuoha: They start the season perhaps looking a little short from two key players from the past couple of seasons but they still have a wealth of experience from winning the title.

Sue Smith: They've won five of the past six titles and have just made two great signings in Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic. I don't think it matters that they have lost Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez, because they still have so much quality. They're the team everyone else has to beat.

Karen Bardsley: Kovacic gives them ball protection, retention and creation, which equals the control they want in games.

Matt Upson: City's defence was awesome anyway, but they needed Gvardiol. The beauty is that all their centre-backs know they will play enough because they have so many matches, and Pep always picks them on form. He loves giving all his players that message and he is trying to do it in attack, too, in terms of playing two up front and using Julian Alvarez. It's like he is telling him: 'I can't drop Haaland, but you have really impressed me and I will find a way of getting you in the team.' It's brilliant to see.

Michael Brown: Their defence looks very strong and if they can bring in another attacking option, they could be frightening.

Chris Waddle: The only thing that could stop City or let them down is complacency or fatigue, and I just don't see either happening under Guardiola because they have got the experience and they have got the squad. It's theirs to lose.

Arsenal - 'I don't expect last season's form to disappear'

Last year, eight/23 pundits thought Arsenal would make the top four, although no-one tipped them to finish higher than fourth - they finished runners-up. This year, only four/27 think they will finish lower than second, and they are the only other team apart from City to be picked as champions.

Martin Keown: Of course I really want Arsenal to win the Premier League - as a pundit I am impartial, but as a former Arsenal player I am excited because last season was the first time in many years that we felt we were back in the fight and the team was competitive. It was a hell of a ride for the 248 days we were top of the table, and I don't expect that form to disappear.

Arsenal have had a fantastic transfer window, too. I am not sure how Kai Havertz fits in, but I really like the look of Jurrien Timber and Declan Rice is one of England's best players. I still think City will be too strong for Arsenal to overcome but I see the Gunners finishing a close second.

Jermaine Beckford: What an amazing signing Rice is. He has leadership qualities as well as skill and technique, and brings everything they need.

Micah Richards: I was close to picking Arsenal to win the title, because no team has ever won it four years in a row, but they are without Gabriel Jesus at the start of the season and I think that is just going to kill them.

Ellen White: Arsenal were so close last year and they have added to their squad really well. They need Jesus back because I don't think Havertz is a number nine, but they won't be short of goals - I am a big fan of Leandro Trossard.

Chris Sutton: I'm not reading much into the Community Shield, which sparked Arsenal's wild celebrations - I got a lot of abuse on Twitter for asking if they had won the World Cup. I have them down to finish second but I'm not as convinced by them as some people are. They fell away badly at the end of last season and they still don't have enough quality to topple City.

Fara Williams: They will find it very different playing in the Champions League. They rested players in the Europa League last season, and they won't be able to do that this time.

Danny Gabbidon: Arsenal will be better for what happened to them at the business end of last season.

Nedum Onuoha: My top three in order are City, Arsenal and Liverpool, but any of them could win the league.

Steve Sidwell: Arsenal were immense last season and the culture and environment Mikel Arteta has created is evident on the pitch. They will fall short of the title again, but still secure another top-four spot.

Steve Sidwell joins Ian Dennis for live commentary of Brighton v Luton on BBC 5 live at 15:00 BST on Saturday, the first of four matches on 5 live on the opening weekend of the season.

Man Utd - 'They won't be consistent enough'

United signed Denmark striker Rasmus Hojlund for £72m from Atalanta. The 20-year-old scored 10 goals in 34 appearances for the Italian side last season

Last season, only three/23 pundits thought United would make the Champions League places, and only one of them picked them to finish higher than fourth - they ended up third. This time, 23/27 pundits have picked them to finish in the top four and 12 think they will finish at least third.

Danny Murphy: I am a bit worried about United, in a positive way for them but a negative way for everyone else. I really like the business that Erik ten Hag has done.

Steve Sidwell: United will be the best of the rest. I've seen real, positive strides under Ten Hag and they seem to be getting settled more and more as the weeks go by. The takeover talk is a big hinderance that needs sorting as soon as possible though.

Dion Dublin: They will be up there pushing for the top spot this season. I've got them down to finish third but they can do even better if Rasmus Hojlund becomes the top-class goalscorer they need.

Dion Dublin, Anita Asante and Ashley Williams are the guests on Football Focus on BBC One and the BBC Sport website at 12:00 BST on Saturday.

Chris Waddle: Hojlund is young and unproven, and he has not scored that many goals, but he will set the tempo for the team and let United play on the front foot - if he leads the press, everyone will back him up. But they need to be challenging for the title, not just the top four - and I don't see that happening this season.

Chris Sutton: Hojlund is all about pace, isn't he? They want him to be United's answer to Erling Haaland but he does not have the pedigree of Haaland, in terms of his numbers. Mason Mount is a good signing but I just don't see United being consistent enough to push City all the way, like Liverpool used to.

Fara Williams: For all their progress, their lack of goals concerns me. It might take Hojlund a while to adapt, especially because he is starting the season carrying an injury.

Stephen Warnock: United were bailed out massively last season by Marcus Rashford's incredible form after the World Cup, but he couldn't sustain that and I am not sure they have got anyone else who can take over when he's not in top form.

Martin Keown: United lost eight away games in the league last season, compared to just one at Old Trafford. I am not sure you can change that overnight? If they can, they could finish higher than fourth.

Karen Bardsley: The addition of Andre Onana will provide defensive stability and will reinvigorate their attack with confident build-up play.

Danny Murphy: United's biggest improvement is going to come away from home. It is inevitable because they will have more possession of the ball now they can play out from the back with Onana in goal. When teams try to press them, they will be better at playing through it.

Matt Upson: You can see United's progress and the new signings fit into Ten Hag's plan. But it is still only year two for him, Arsenal are a bit further along. We might see patches of form where you think 'wow, United are a real threat for the title' but also patches where they are not quite there.

Liverpool - 'They desperately need to bring in players'

No-one thought Liverpool would finish lower than second last season, but they came fifth. This season, 21/27 pundits are backing them to make the top four, but only one thinks they will be higher than third.

Danny Murphy: I am really looking forward to seeing Alexis Mac Allister for Liverpool but losing Jordan Henderson is a blow. For me he still would have been the first name on the teamsheet. They will have to replace his physicality and the dynamism he brings to their midfield - the ability to press well and spot danger.

I'd certainly expect Liverpool to do more business before the transfer window shuts but the reason I think they'll be better and back in the top four this time is because they have got brilliant options in the forward positions. Having Luis Diaz fit again is like having a new player. Defensively, they do need to become more solid but I am expecting them to come out of the blocks fast.

Shay Given: Liverpool are going to make a serious comeback this season. They have freshened it up in midfield of course, but I just think they will be stronger everywhere and hungry to get back to competing at the top of the table.

Danny Murphy and Shay Given join Mark Chapman for MOTD2 this Sunday at 22:30 BST on BBC One and the BBC Sport website for highlights of Brentford v Tottenham and Chelsea v Liverpool.

Chris Sutton: Scoring goals won't be a problem but their defence was their weakness last season. The key to them changing that is Virgil van Dijk and whether he can get his best form back. I am not sure he has ever fully recovered from his serious knee injury in October 2020.

Danny Gabbidon: I'm expecting a much more consistent season but they won't challenge if Jurgen Klopp doesn't find the right balance between attack and defence.

Ellen White: I'm not convinced by Liverpool. It felt like everyone has figured them out.

Stephen Warnock: Liverpool desperately need to bring in players.

Leon Osman: They have lost a lot of leadership over the summer and they still haven't got enough energy in midfield.

Anita Asante: The frontline and the backline are still pretty consistent, it is the midfield which is a bit of an unknown at the moment.

Martin Keown: For Liverpool it's about how the other players stand up to the loss to that dressing room of James Milner and Henderson. I don't think you can underestimate the impact there. And, where they ruled supreme with meticulous purchases by Klopp at the beginning of his tenure, you just feel a bit concerned that they've lost their way a little bit in the transfer market.

Chris Waddle: They look a bit thin on experience in the middle of the park. The way they play, they will score loads of goals but concede a lot too - I can see them being the Premier League's top scorers, but they probably have the worst defence of the top five.

Newcastle - 'This might be a stumble on the way'

Newcastle didn't make anyone's top four last season but ended up fourth. This time, five pundits think they will make it, and three have them down to finish third.

Danny Murphy: Newcastle are on their way forward so this is not a criticism of them - if they make the top four again it wouldn't surprise me, but I don't think they will. The main reason I see them dropping off a bit in the Premier League is their Champions League fixtures - the intensity and huge physicality they play with means playing that way twice a week will be hard. They have made some really good signings, don't get me wrong, but I still think they are short of a centre-half or, ideally, two if they have any injuries there.

Leon Osman: Along with Arsenal, they were the surprise package last year. They have continued to strengthen and the possibilities seem endless, but this might be a stumble on the way, especially with Champions League football. I still think top six is progress.

Martin Keown: They are not used to European football but the excitement of what they are doing might just take them on a ride, which might mean it won't affect them as much.

Chris Waddle: Eddie Howe has done a great job because, when you look at their team on paper compared to the other sides up there, you wouldn't say Newcastle are a top-four team. I'm expecting more of the same this year, though, which is why I am backing them to make it again. They were terrific at home, they were solid defensively and there was a real buzz about the way they played.

The only problem I see with them is still who is going to get them goals, because they don't score enough. Callum Wilson is a poacher but he has fitness issues, and Alexander Isak seems to prefer to come and join in the build-up.

Chelsea - 'It could be top four, or another nightmare'

Last season 13/24 pundits thought Chelsea would make the top four. They finished 12th, 27 points behind fourth-placed Newcastle. This time, only 3/27 are backing them.

Pat Nevin: I've got to be absolutely honest, I haven't got a clue how Chelsea are going to do, and that's unusual. Sometimes, though, you have to put your hands up and say it is so random that they are just as likely to be top four or top six as they are to be the same as they were last season - in the bottom half, and have a nightmare.

Danny Gabbidon: They've got a very good squad of players and now they have a manager who is capable of getting the best out of them.

Fara Williams: With Chelsea not in the Champions League, and Mauricio Pochettino bringing the group together, they have a real chance to focus on the Premier League. He has done it before, with Tottenham... and they might surprise a few people.

Anita Asante: I haven't put Chelsea in my top four but I have a sneaky feeling that not being in Europe will help Pochettino's rebuild, like it did when Antonio Conte won the Premier League in his first season in 2016-17. They only really have one thing to play for.

Stephen Warnock: Chelsea are going to improve, definitely. They could sign another four players before the end of the window and suddenly we all look stupid for not putting them in the top four. They will be close anyway, because of Pochettino and how he is trying to change the culture within the squad - they looked better when I saw them in pre-season and if they spend more money and bring in two or three top quality players then I think they will get fourth ahead of Villa.

Pat Nevin: It's a completely new group and they are still very young. I can see what they are trying to do, which is develop a whole bunch of young players, and it makes sense, but that's not something that makes you win titles straight away. Somehow they need to get back into Europe, and back into the top four - but it is asking a lot to do that with a group of players where very few of them have previously done that.

One other question remains, which is Romelu Lukaku. I cannot see him staying, but there is always the chance that something leftfield will happen. There are some big name Brazilian and French centre-forwards that might be on the move, so you just never know. But of course you can never factor it in to these predictions because you don't know if it will come off.

Aston Villa - 'When you see Emery at work, it's impressive'

Villa finished seventh last season, but would have been fifth if the season had started when Unai Emery took charge on 1 November - not every team played the same number of games in that period, but Liverpool are still just above Villa on points-per-game - by 0.002 of a point.

Ellen White: I really liked the way Villa played under Unai Emery last season - it wasn't just their results which were impressive when they were flying up the table.

Chris Sutton: Villa's next target is to crack the top six. They have made some good signings like Moussa Diaby, Pau Torres and Youri Tielemans, but the top four is too big a step for them.

Stephen Warnock: I've been out in the United States covering the Summer Series and I was lucky enough to go down and watch Villa train and speak to Emery. When you see what he's about and how he works, it's very impressive. Looking at that, and the form they were in under him last season, I think they might sneak in.

Matt Upson: Emery had an amazing impact but sustaining that form for an entire campaign is very different. Have they got enough quality, in depth, to finish in the top four? I'm not sure about that.

Anyone else? - 'Spurs are not on my radar'

Harry Kane is Tottenham's all-time record goalscorer with 280 goals in 435 appearances and scored 30 goals in 38 Premier League games last season

Last year, 22/23 pundits thought Tottenham would finish in the top four. This time, no-one has picked them to make it.

Ellen White: Tottenham might struggle to match their eighth-place finish from last season if Harry Kane leaves.

Chris Sutton: I am excited about seeing Ange Postecoglou at Tottenham - I can't wait to watch 'Ange-ball' in the Premier League after seeing him at Celtic. Spurs were a team I was thinking about to finish fourth, but that does rely on Kane staying and they need to solve their centre-back issues. The other thing that is crucial to the way Postecoglou wants to play is having someone to play the first quick pass forward from midfield - they still need to get that right.

Nedum Onuoha: I've gone for Spurs to finish fifth and get the extra Champions League spot for 2024-25 that will go to the two countries with the best record in European club competition this season.

Chris Waddle: They've not spent enough. They've got a side that can finish in the top half but, even if Kane stays, they're nowhere near the top four. I know they were in fourth place when Antonio Conte left last season, with 10 league games to go, but they never really convinced me. There was only the odd moment where they looked good, then their run-in was absolutely terrible.

Anita Asante: Brighton are the other team I feel will be up there. 'De Zerbi-ball' has been so interesting to watch - they could do what Newcastle did last season.

Matt Upson: Spurs are miles off my radar. I'd pick Brighton to finish above them and having a better chance of making the top four. The Seagulls essentially had a top-four season last season but they were robbed of at least four points by VAR - they even got an apology about it - and then the FA Cup semi-final defeat finished them because they lost all momentum and didn't seem quite the same after that.

It was still an incredible season but it is going to be very hard to follow that up - I can see them struggling with the extra games now they are in the Europa League too.

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