South Wales derby: Cardiff City aim to stop the rot as Swansea City eye five in a row

Cardiff forward Callum Robinson was sent off in the first of last season's south Wales derbies for throwing the ball at Swansea defender Ben Cabango

Would fans of Cardiff City or Swansea City rather win promotion to the Premier League or beat their neighbours twice?

Neutral observers might expect a supporter to choose a return to the top flight over a couple of good days in the south Wales derby.

And were the choice as simple as that, many - perhaps most - would surely accept Premier League football in exchange for a pair of defeats by the neighbours.

But that does not make it advisable for anyone from either club to say as much in the lead-up to the fixture that matters most - and by some distance - in this corner of the footballing world.

Hence Michael Duff sent social media into overdrive when he made his first comment on this Saturday's derby as Swansea's head coach.

"It's an important game, but it's not the be-all and end-all," Duff said after Swansea's defeat to Bristol City prior to the international break.

"I'd rather win promotion and get beat by Cardiff twice."

The history books rewritten - over and again

Swansea have broken so much new ground when facing Cardiff in recent times that it has become sensible to use pencil rather than ink to fill in the fixture's record books.

In 2021-22, Russell Martin's Swansea beat Cardiff 3-0 at home and then 4-0 away to claim the first league double in the history of encounters between Wales' two heavyweight clubs.

That was quite something given that the sides had first met in 1912.

The fact that they repeated the feat last season, winning 2-0 at home and 3-2 in Cardiff, was extraordinary. This weekend at Cardiff City Stadium, Swansea have a shot at five in a row - a feat which would have been unthinkable a couple of years ago.

Ben Cabango sparked jubilant scenes on the away end with his late winner at Cardiff in April

It is not just in the last two campaigns that Swansea have had the upper hand.

Cardiff have won only one of the last nine derbies, courtesy of Aden Flint's header at what is now the Swansea.com Stadium in March 2021.

Flint's goal is one of just three scored by Cardiff during those nine games, with Swansea registering 18.

One of the reasons put forward for Swansea's greater success is that they have had a greater appreciation of the derby's significance.

Fans on both sides of the divide know what the fixture means, of course, but the accusation levelled at Cardiff has been that some players and coaching staff have not recognised what was at stake.

Yes derby victory only gets you three points, just like any other game, but this fixture is not about the league table.

Cardiff's chance to change the record?

Steven Caulker's goal gave Cardiff their most recent home win in the south Wales derby

The last time Cardiff beat Swansea in front of fans was almost a decade ago, when Steven Caulker headed in the only goal of the game.

Little did Bluebirds supporters know that a 3-0 mauling at Swansea later that season would mark the start of such a dreadful derby run.

But Cardiff will halt the sequence at some stage and, given Swansea's difficult start to life under Duff, there are some who feel this is the capital-city club's big chance.

"You have got to give credit to Swansea," says former Cardiff midfielder and lifelong fan Joe Ledley.

"They have dominated the last few derbies and it's been disappointing from a Cardiff perspective.

"I don't think they have been on the front foot in the recent games, they have sat in too deep.

"But I have been excited with Cardiff this season. Yeah results haven't gone our way, we have been unlucky, but I have watched the first two home games.

"There is a lot of positivity around the stadium. Rambo (Aaron Ramsey) has brought in massive experience and that creativity as well.

"They are scoring goals which they didn't have last season. I think if we can just sort out the defensive situations, we are in for a fantastic game."

Erol Bulut's Cardiff have scored in all seven of their games this season after the Bluebirds struggled for goals in 2022-23

Cardiff have managed only one league victory so far under Erol Bulut, thanks to a late winner against Sheffield Wednesday, but there have been encouraging signs.

The additions of players such as Ramsey, Dimitrios Goutas, Manolis Siopis, Josh Bowler, Karlan Grant, Yakou Meite and Ike Ugbo have brought greater depth and balance to Cardiff's squad.

Based on performances, they ought to have more than four points on the board after Bulut's first five Championship games.

Swansea, of course, have only two points so far, with Duff chasing the first league victory of his short reign on derby day.

"He will want to get that win as soon as he can," says former Swansea midfielder Leon Britton.

"He is a new manager with different ideas and the players are still getting used to what he wants.

"They will have had a lot of time on the training pitch during the international break and will hope that comes through on Saturday, but the manager would take a 1-0 and not the greatest performance. He'll just be desperate for that win."

Swansea have numerous new faces too, with four deadline-day signings in contention for debuts in the derby.

It could be that Swansea start with only three or four members of the side which began their most recent derby success, in April, while Cardiff are likely to include just four or five players who started that game.

"Cardiff will be desperate to stop the run of Swansea wins," Britton adds.

"For Swansea, I think the aim will be to produce a 90-minute performance, because we haven't really had that yet this season.

"And if you don't perform for 90 minutes in the derby, you won't win."

Michael Duff's Swansea have lost their last three games in all competitions despite taking the lead in each of them

Britton believes Duff may have been attempting to "take some of the pressure off the players" by playing down the significance of a meeting with Cardiff.

For Cardiff, Ledley suggests, the message is clear.

"I think going into the game it's all about do not lose," he says.

"I think the fans would go home happy with a point and that builds momentum going into the next game and the start to the season.

"But to win, to get one over on your rivals... that would be massive."

Duff might agree come Saturday night, particularly if it is his team who triumph.

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