The reality behind Scotland's 28-year World Cup wait

The late Craig Brown was the last manager to get the Scotland men's team to a World Cup

World Cup qualifying: Scotland v Denmark

Venue: Hampden Park, Glasgow Date: Tuesday, 18 November Time: 19:45 GMT

Coverage: Watch on BBC Scotland, BBC Two & iPlayer, listen on BBC Radio Scotland, BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Radio Nan Gaidheal & Sounds, live text commentary on the BBC Sport website & app

Twenty-eight years will have dragged by without Scotland's men reaching a World Cup by the time next summer's finals arrives.

That 1998 summer in France. Two weeks of romance and angst. An opening defeat by Brazil, a draw with Norway, a humbling by Morocco and another exit in the group stage.

It was an eighth appearance in the finals, but since then Scotland have been on a horrendous run that has bludgeoned the high standing of the nation's football team while casting them into the international wilderness for a generation.

But how bad is it that it has been so pain-painstakingly long? Who is to blame, and can the Tartan Army dare to start planning trips across the Atlantic with Tuesday's decider against Denmark looming?

27 years of hurt & shame - or is it?

Some may see it as a disgrace Scotland have not been to a men's World Cup since the 1990s. An embarrassment.

But is it?

Since 1998, 61 nations have qualified for a finals. Of that number, 25 of them came through European qualifying.

Wales and Republic of Ireland both managed it once. Iceland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Czechs did it, too.

Slovenia have even accomplished it twice. The Swedes three times. None of them are what you would describe as footballing powerhouses.

But over the years, have Scotland fallen short of what those outside of our border would have expected?

In short, no.

Since 1998, every European team who reached a World Cup had a higher world ranking at that time than the Scots. In other words, if Scotland had made it, they'd be the worst team from Europe at any given tournament.

In 2002, with a world ranking of 50, Craig Brown's team would have actually been the lowest team globally to travel to South Korea and Japan.

What does this data tell us?

Well, that Scotland aren't expected to qualify for World Cups - and haven't been for some time. And that's not just through the Scottish pessimism prism.

One could argue that if the Scots had made it to, say, the 2002 finals, then by winning the extra points to get us there and maybe snatching the odd result, our ranking would have gone up accordingly.

But that's in the realms of ifs, buts and maybes. Given results of the national team over the past 27 years, they didn't deserve to make it.

Whether they should have done, is another question.

Has Scotland failed its young talent?

Steve Clarke took over as Scotland head coach in 2019 and vowed to get the country back to a major finals. He's managed it twice, both at European Championship finals.

It's no mean feat, albeit both were a damp squib with Scotland wheezing their way to an early exit on each occasion without really landing a punch on, well, anyone.

The squad has continued to evolve under Clarke, with the dial starting to turn towards the future with younger players coming in over the past year.

But where has been the stream of young talent coming through the age groups?

The Scottish FA has seven performance schools, a scheme that was introduced in 2012 for the cream of Scotland's young talent to learn, grow and flourish.

Last month, the SFA announced their closure.

Of the Scotland team in Germany at last summer's Euros, Billy Gilmour was the only performance school graduate, having attended Grange Academy in Kilmarnock.

As well as the SFA, some Scottish clubs also have their own school partnerships, including Celtic, Dundee, Dundee United, Hearts and Rangers.

For example, Celtic's partnership with St Ninian's in Kirkintilloch can include Kieran Tierney, Anthony Ralston, Aaron Hickey, Jack Hendry and Ben Gannon-Doak as alumni.

But given the SFA's scheme is stopping just as the first cohort are in their mid-20s, it's hardly blockbusting figures.

Will Scotland qualify for World Cup 2026?

There have been so many points in this campaign where the dream of automatic qualification either looked doubtful or dead. But Scotland are still alive and kicking.

A win against Denmark - who sit a point above the Scots in Group C - on Tuesday, and that's it. Job done.

It's so tantalisingly close. Closer than it's been for a generation.

Last time out, Ukraine stunned Hampden in a play-off, but another game was still to come if it had gone differently.

Third spot in qualifying is the best the Scots have conjured since getting to France in 1998. In a bid to reach the World Cup in 2014, Scotland finished fourth behind Belgium, Croatia and Serbia.

Not since the failed campaign to reach South Korea and Japan have they been this close to the team topping the group.

Many stellar players have seen their international career fly by without a sniff of a World Cup.

James McFadden. Barry Ferguson. Darren Fletcher. Kenny Miller. David Weir. Scott Brown. Callum McGregor. All terrific players and some of them bunched in talented squads that just couldn't get the job done.

What none of them - with the exception of McGregor - had that this group hold, though, is experience of getting the job done.

Most of Clarke's lot know what it takes to qualify for a major finals having done it twice on his watch already.

Completing the hat-trick would surely be his biggest feat before his expected departure when this campaign reaches a conclusion.

A flawed campaign has offered up plenty reasons to call for realism. The dreamer will tell you the fact Scotland are still in the hunt means it's written in the stars.

We'll soon find out.