How to win the Championship play-offs - five golden rules

Russell Martin led Southampton to victory in the play-off final last year

Within the next 72 hours or so, we will know which two teams will be contesting the Championship play-off final at Wembley on Saturday, 24 May.

On Monday, Sheffield United host Bristol City in the second leg of their semi-final after a thumping 3-0 win for the Blades at Ashton Gate last week.

And, on Tuesday, Coventry visit Sunderland, trailing 2-1 after Friday's first leg.

So who will be playing Premier League football in August? While anything can happen in the play-offs, the data can give us some clues as to how things might pan out.

Here are five golden rules which, since 2004-05, every single play-off winner has satisfied.

Don't be top on Christmas Day

Three teams in Championship history have been top of the table on Christmas Day but found themselves in the play-offs having missed out on automatic promotion. Each time this happened, all three failed to be promoted.

Ipswich Town were top in 2004-05 with 49 points, but ended up finishing down in sixth and then losing in the semi-finals to West Ham.

Watford were top in 2007-08 with 43 points but also ended up in sixth - and also ended up losing in the semi-finals, this time to eventual winners Hull.

Most recently, Leeds were top in 2018-19 with 48 points, before finishing third but then losing at the semi-final stage to Derby.

What does that all mean for this season? Sheffield United were top last Christmas before dropping out of the top two - but, after thrashing Bristol City last week, do at least look set to reach the final.

Don't be sixth on New Year's Day

Seven times in Championship history the team who sat in sixth place on New Year's Day failed to be promoted through the play-offs if they qualified for them.

The unlucky seven are:

• 2008-09: Sheffield United - lost to Burnley in the final

• 2012-13: Watford - lost to Crystal Palace in the final

• 2014-15: Brentford - lost to Middlesbrough in the semi-final

• 2016/17: Sheffield Wednesday - lost to Huddersfield in the semi-final

• 2018-19: Derby County - lost to Aston Villa in the final

• 2021-22: Huddersfield - lost to Nottingham Forest in the final

• 2022-23: Sunderland - lost to Luton in the semi-final

For the record, this season West Brom were sixth on New Year's Day - but ended up falling away completely before finishing ninth.

Get between four and 13 points in your last five games

A team's form going into the play-offs is always a topic of discussion, but does it actually matter?

Every team which has been promoted from the Championship has picked up between four and 13 points out of a possible 15 in the last five games - a wide span of results.

By far the most common points achieved by the play-off winner is 10 out of a possible 15, happening in 45% of cases. No team entered the play-offs this year on 10 points in their final five games.

So what does all of this mean for Sunderland? They were the first team in Championship history to enter a play-off campaign having lost each of their final five matches, so they will have to achieve a first if they are to get promoted.

Huddersfield produced the worst form in their final five league games before going on to get promoted, with one win, one draw and three defeats.

Achieve a points total of between 70 and 88 points

Only four teams have ever qualified for the Championship play-offs with a league points total either above 88 points or below 70 points. They are as follows:

• 2023-24: Leeds - 90 points

• 2015-16: Brighton - 89 points

• 2022-23: Sunderland - 69 points

• 2012-13: Leicester City - 68 points

All four of those teams failed to win promotion.

There's a chance, however, this rule will be broken this year. Sheffield United finished on 90 points, while Coventry had 69 and Bristol City 68. Only Sunderland fall within the 88-70-point range with 76.

Don't score exactly two, four, 10, 12, 13 or 15 goals in your final five games

This is a very specific one - but does include 25 of the 80 play-offs teams since 2004-05, all of which failed to get promoted.

This season, the teams competing in the play-offs scored the following number of goals in their final five games:

• Sheffield United - 7

• Sunderland - 1

• Coventry City - 6

• Bristol City - 6

None of them sit on one of the bogey numbers.

However, Sunderland scored just one goal during that period and no team has ever made the play-offs having done that before.

The team with the most was Nottingham Forest, who scored 15 in their final five games in 2010-11, before losing to Swansea in the semi-finals.

And finally... does where you finish matter?

It turns out that where you finish in the league itself matters more than you might think.

In total, 45% of play-off winners have come from the team finishing third (9/20), while just 10% have come from the team finishing in 6th (2/20).

West Ham in 2004-05 and Blackpool in 2009-10 are the only teams to get promoted after finishing sixth, so it's not happened for 15 years.

Additionally, it might not even have much to do with point totals. The Fulham side of 2016-17 who finished on 80 points, the most ever for a sixth-placed side, still failed to reach the play-off final after losing to Reading.

And 17 out of the 20 teams who finished in sixth place all lost in the semi-finals - which looks likely to be the case again this year after Bristol City's first-leg defeat.