Sheffield United

If you're wondering where your team is going to finish in the Championship this season, you no longer need to worry.

Well, kind of.

Opta's supercomputer has worked its magic to figure out the most likely final league position of every team - and the chances each has of being promoted, making the play-offs or getting relegated.

Who is most likely to win automatic promotion?

It will come as no surprise that leaders Coventry are heavy favourites for the title (69.3%) and also have the highest chance of automatic promotion (84.2%) to the Premier League.

The next most likely to go straight up, with a 30.8% chance, are Middlesbrough. Despite currently sitting seventh and six points behind Boro in second, Ipswich are expected to be the third favourites for a top two finish (18.9%) followed by Stoke (14.1%).

Even though they've each enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, Preston (10.3%), Hull (6.1%) and Millwall (8.3%) have slimmer chances of finishing in an automatic promotion spot.

Who will make the play-offs?

Image source, Rex Features

Even if Coventry don't win automatic promotion, Opta's supercomputer has given the Sky Blues a 97.9% chance of a top-six finish, suggesting it's almost guaranteed.

Each of Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Preston and Stoke are expected to finish in a minimum of a play-off position at least one in two times.

Hull might feel the hardest done by as they sit fifth currently, but are said to have less chance (32.3%) than Millwall (38.8%) and Charton (32.4%), who are below them in the table.

The most likely of the chasing pack to make a surge up the table are 12th-placed Leicester City, who have been given a 31.8% chance of finishing in the top six and are more likely than Bristol City (28.9%), Derby (22.9%) and Birmingham (19.9%).

Last season's beaten play-off finalists Sheffield United have just a 1.8% chance of recovering their season to make the play-offs again, while relegated Premier League side Southampton (12.5%) aren't likely to either... if you trust the supercomputer!

Who is going down?

Image source, Rex Features

It's probably not hard to work out who is most likely to finish bottom and be relegated to League One.

Sheffield Wednesday's 12-point deduction, which has left them 17 points adrift of safety on -4 points, means they're pretty much nailed on to finish bottom (84.8%) - and failing that, are almost certain to go down (98.2%).

Second from bottom Norwich are the next most likely candidates to fall through the trap door (58.5%) but Sheffield United, who currently occupy the final relegation spot, have just a 22.4% chance of going down and are considered more likely to stay up than Oxford (37.8%) and Portsmouth (31.3%).

The Steel City derby returns on Sunday (12:00 GMT) with both team looking towards safety from the bottom three.

Sheffield Wednesday could get closer to being out of negative numbers following their 12 point deduction, a win taking them to -1 as well as providing yet another boost to morale around Hillsborough.

Though victory for the Blades could see them level on points with 21st placed Oxford United should the U's lose their match against Middlesbrough, leaving them with a chance to strike next time around.

• This will be the 134th Steel City derby between Sheffield Wednesday and Sheffield United – in the previous 133, the Owls have won 42, while the Blades have won 48 with the other 43 games ending as draws.

• Sheffield United are unbeaten in their last six league games against Sheffield Wednesday (W3 D3), keeping a clean sheet in each of their last five against their rivals.

• Including injury time, the two teams to have spent the fewest time winning in Championship matches this season are Sheffield United (192 mins) and Sheffield Wednesday (219 mins), while the Owls have spent the most amount of time losing in games this season in the second tier (801 mins).

• Sheffield United have just 10 points in 15 Championship games this season (W3 D1 L11), 23 fewer than they had at this stage in 2024-25 (33). It is the biggest drop of points after 15 games in consecutive English second tier seasons by any team in history.

• Sheffield Wednesday captain Barry Bannan has created the joint most chances in the Championship this season (33), while he's made the most successful crosses (34) and played the most passes into the opposition box (150) of any player in the competition

Image source, Shutterstock

Sheffield United boss Chris Wilder has admitted he has found the job of turning the club's fortunes around harder than he had expected.

Wilder returned to the club in September, three months after being sacked and replaced by Ruben Selles.

Selles lost all six of his competitive games in charge and Wilder, who takes his side to Steel City rivals Sheffield Wednesday on Sunday, has lost six of 10 since coming back in.

"It's been a tough period for everyone, most importantly the supporters," he told BBC Radio Sheffield.

"I've been disappointed in the results. The performances, from a data point of view, have been pretty good.

"It's a mixed group, there are players that I have inherited and there are ones I had last season who have not produced good enough performances.

"Getting it right has been difficult. I thought it would be easier than it has been but we are working away and we will get to where we want to."

The Blades, beaten in last season's play-off final, will head to Hillsborough on Sunday in the Championship relegation zone.

Wednesday are bottom of the table on minus four points after entering administration last month.

Wilder praised the job that Owls counterpart Henrik Pedersen has done in difficult circumstances.

"The hand that Henrik was dealt was a really tough one - I've been there before at Northampton and at Halifax and I think he has got absolutely everything out of a committed group of players," he said.

"We know how dangerous this game is for us. We're not in the best league position ourselves and we'd like to be in a better one.

"We always know that everything goes out of the window with this game."

Rob Staton
BBC Radio Sheffield

Image source, Shuttershock

The consensus was Sheffield United were a bit better against QPR, even as they failed to find the goal that would have provided a much-needed three points.

However, the extent of the job Chris Wilder has returned to has been brutally laid out between the October and November international breaks.

The players brought to the club simply have not improved the squad. It was always going to be a challenge to deal with the loss of players such as Vini Souza and Anel Ahmedhodzic. However, it was manageable if left in the right hands.

Instead, the Blades have signed a collection of players who have either had minimal impact, do not appear to be anywhere near good enough, or need time to get up to speed with their fitness.

Meanwhile, the impact of going from one manager to another, letting that manager oversee pre-season, enduring a nightmare start to the season, only then to pivot back to the original boss, has clearly knocked the confidence and performance of key players.

Several have gone from influential figures in last season's promotion push to scrambling to regain their best form.

It was only fair United's owners were given some credit for the U-turn that led to Wilder's return. Yet the truth is they have created a mess that has made life far harder than it needed to be.

In a weaker Championship this year, it is plausible the Blades could have emulated Leeds United from a year ago, when they regrouped and won the league. If only that had been the mindset over the summer.

It is still too early to judge what this season is now about. United remain in the bottom three. It still seems likely they will eventually start to climb the league. It is not a given though.

So how will the owners view this situation? Will they learn from their mistakes?

After buying a club that appeared well placed to get back into the Premier League, how would they feel about a squad refresh that now appears necessary and might take time?

Are they in this for the long haul, if it means pressing pause on top-flight ambitions for this season? They have proven people in key positions at the club but will they be afforded the space to get on with the job?

This was all avoidable.