How 11th could mean Europe & the race for Champions League

Nottingham Forest have not played in Europe since 1995-96

The race for European places feels like the most exciting narrative left in this season's Premier League, with a fifth Champions League spot for English clubs all but guaranteed.

Newcastle's Carabao Cup win on Sunday has secured them a Conference League play-off spot - which would be bumped down to the next highest-ranked team in the Premier League who have not already qualified for Europe, if Newcastle qualify for the Europa League or Champions League.

That has started a conversation about how European spots could, in theory, reach as far down as 11th in the table.

This is how it could work:

• Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest Manchester City qualify for Champions League as the top four

• Newcastle finish fifth and gain the extra Champions League spot for English clubs' performances in Europe this season

• Brighton qualify for the Europa League by finishing sixth

• Bournemouth finish seventh and qualify for the Europa League by winning the FA Cup

• Chelsea finish eighth and qualify for the Europa League by winning the Conference League

• Aston Villa finish ninth but qualify for the Champions League by winning that

• Manchester United or Tottenham finish 10th but qualify for the Champions League by winning the Europa League

• So, the Conference League spot earned by Newcastle could not go to any of the top 10 and would be allocated to the team finishing 11th

Forest edge closer to Champions League football

Nottingham Forest boosted their hopes of securing Champions League football next season with a 4-2 win at struggling Ipswich on Saturday.

The result allowed third-placed Forest to open a six-point gap over Manchester City in fifth, who were held to a 2-2 draw at Etihad Stadium by a Brighton side also chasing European football.

Fourth-placed Chelsea's hope of putting some distance between themselves and City were dealt a blow on Sunday as they lost 1-0 to Arsenal. That means they are one point ahead of Pep Guardiola's side.

Newcastle, who are sixth and beat Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final to secure a Europa Conference League spot at least on Sunday, are now only a point behind City and two adrift of Chelsea and have a game in hand on both.

Brighton, like Newcastle, are on 47 points, while Bournemouth are back on 44 following a 2-1 loss at home to Brentford.

Fulham are eighth and four points off the top four after beating Tottenham 2-0 on Sunday.

Man City 'have nine games, nine finals'

At this stage last season, Forest were battling to stay in the top flight.

However, despite overseeing the transformation from relegation candidates to a charge for Champions League qualification, boss Nuno Espirito Santo is not ready to get carried away.

"You know what I think about the table," said Forest's Portuguese manager.

"What we have is to focus on ourselves, focus on ourselves. Work as much as we can because there is a lot of football to be played yet.

"Fourteen of our players are going away on international break. We wish them all the best and hope they can come back healthy so we can continue the journey."

Manchester City are hoping to qualify for the Champions League for a 15th successive season

Meanwhile, manager Guardiola said he could feel the anxiety around Etihad Stadium during Manchester City's draw against the Seagulls, but he remains confident they will qualify for Europe's elite club tournament.

"I'm always confident - in that I am a master. I do have moments [when] I can doubt but I find the right way, the positiveness in everything.

"It is harder to get top four than people think and I respect Nottingham [Forest] and Brighton.

"I know it will be difficult for many reasons but we have nine games, nine finals."

Can Seagulls and Bees mount European push?

Speaking to the BBC's Match of the Day, Brighton midfielder Jack Hinshelwood outlined their growing confidence of qualifying for Europe for only the second time in their 124-year history.

"The run we're on we've gone into every game believing we can beat anybody. The fans have been unbelievable. If we can keep this momentum going it's going to be hard to stop us," he said.

"Last season we had a taste of what Europe can be like. As a club we're driving to getting back to that feeling."

Brentford captain Christian Norgaard also applied an optimistic tone to their prospects after defeating Bournemouth on the south coast.

"We knew, at this time of the season, where we are and where they are, it was a must-win game if we want to go for something a bit bigger this season," he said.

"Why not try to go for it [Europe]? We are pretty clear of the relegation battle. Now we should be able to play with that freedom, to really try to attack the last nine games.

"There are so many good teams fighting for those European spots, but I think we have the quality to nail one of them."

Who is set to qualify for Champions League?

Statistics provider Opta's League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position.

The model evaluates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings.

The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances, plus it considers the strength of opponents.

It estimates Liverpool are 100% certain to finish in the top four and have a 99.25% chance of winning the Premier League title.

Arsenal currently have a 99.84% probability of ending the season in the top four, while Nottingham Forest's chances are up to 68.99%, and Manchester City's hopes of qualifying for the Champions League for a 15th successive season are 59.86%.

Chelsea's chances dropped to 28% after losing to Arsenal, but Newcastle at 30.54% are tipped to be strongly in contention.

But there is then a drop-off to Brighton and eighth-placed Aston Villa, who are given just 7.21% and 2.84% chances respectively.

Statistics accurate on Sunday, 16 March at 19:25 GMT,

How do countries earn an extra Champions League spot?

Each country's league earns a coefficient ranking based on how their teams perform in Uefa's three men's European club competitions: the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

Coefficient points are earned through match results - two for a win and one for a draw.

The points earned by clubs from the same domestic league are added up and divided by the number of clubs the league has in Europe.

For example, if the Premier League had 100 points, that would be split by the number of teams playing in Europe (seven), giving England a coefficient of 14.28.

This season, bonus points are available to clubs playing in the Champions League, which is advantageous to leagues with more clubs competing in it, such as Germany and Italy.

Countries that finish in the coefficient table's top two places earn an additional Champions League spot for the following season.

Those spots are awarded to the teams who finish in the first position below the standard Champions League allocation in those leagues.

In the Premier League, the top four clubs automatically qualify for the Champions League via league position, so any additional place would go to the team in fifth.

Additional spots for the 2024-25 Champions League were given to Bologna and Borussia Dortmund, who finished fifth in Serie A and the Bundesliga respectively.