Why next five games are critical for Aberdeen

Aberdeen play Livingston on Saturday searching for a first league win

A home game against Livingston in early September would not normally create nerves and anticipation at Aberdeen.

But as Jimmy Thelin's side prepare to return to league action, anyone with an interest in the club is desperate to see how they respond after a winless start.

Three games, three defeats, and no goals is a poor beginning, even with tough games away to Heart of Midlothian and at home to Celtic factored in.

But it becomes worse when you consider the fact they have won just five Scottish Premiership games in 30 since November 2024.

The signings of Kevin Nisbet, Stuart Armstrong, and Bologna winger Jesper Karlsson on loan at the end of the transfer window have brightened the mood since the defeat by Falkirk.

But they also mean it is now time to deliver.

Livingston, Motherwell in the League Cup, Dundee United, Motherwell in the Premiership, and Dundee are Aberdeen's next five domestic fixtures.

They already feel like must-win games for Thelin, despite his status as a well-liked Scottish Cup winning-manager.

Aberdeen lack spark and defensive solidity

Thelin's first season at Aberdeen was marked by an incredible start - 13 straight wins during a 16-game unbeaten run - and a glorious end, as they upset Celtic at Hampden to lift the Scottish Cup.

The bit in the middle, though, was far gloomier, as the start of this season has been.

The last 10 months in the league have been characterised by the concession of sloppy goals combined with a lack of spark in the final third.

Only now-relegated Ross County and St Johnstone have scored fewer goals than Aberdeen in the Premiership since the start of the last campaign, discounting Falkirk and Livingston, who have played three top-flight games in that time.

Unsurprisingly then, they also rank very low for conversion rate and the number of big chances they score.

That lack of a killer touch has been compounded by the fact they are also down the Premiership rankings when it comes to expected goals and crosses. They just do not test opposition defences enough and, when they do, they waste opportunities.

Meanwhile in defence, only Dundee and Kilmarnock have conceded more goals. None of these grim statistics are greatly surprising when a team has won five of 30 league games.

So what might be causing them?

Why are Aberdeen struggling?

It is hard to pinpoint any one issue, but the turnover of players is something often overlooked.

Twenty-four players have arrived in the three windows under Thelin, with plenty also heading in the other direction.

In January Aberdeen effectively signed a brand-new defence, and then had to replace left-back Jack Mackenzie this summer too.

Last season's first-choice goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov missed long spells with injury.

When they won 13 straight games, the Bulgarian started behind the same back four for virtually all of them.

But it is not just a lack of continuity at the back which may have contributed to poor defending, but an apparent lack of physicality and aggression at times.

Aberdeen have lost more challenges, according to Opta data, than any side in the Premiership since the start of last season.

That could also be down to players not reacting quickly enough, or being in the right positions, but either way it is a concerning statistic in a league like the Premiership, where winning tackles and second balls are vital.

A lack of continuity may also be holding back the attack. Of Aberdeen's forwards, only Topi Keskinen (35) has started more than 22 of their last 41 league matches.

Jamie McGrath, Pape Gueye, and Shayden Morris were key creators and scorers for Thelin last term and have now left the club.

Overall, only Celtic and Rangers have made more line-up changes than Aberdeen.

The club have created a successful player trading model since chairman Dave Cormack took over stewardship of the club in November 2019.

That means looking for value from younger players playing in some of Europe's less-heralded leagues. With that comes risk, and plenty of those who have arrived are yet to prove themselves.

Keskinen, 22, is a good example. Signed for a healthy fee from HJK Helsinki, the winger has had bright moments, but has only produced two league assists and five goals in 39 games.

Under a manager who sees his wingers as key to his system, that return is not enough.

However, Keskinen is far from the only culprit.

"Jimmy Thelin's got a lot to think about," former Aberdeen captain Willie Miller said on Sportsound after the Falkirk game.

"He's brought a lot of project players in and, as yet, we've still got to see the fruits.

"There are so many new players coming in and it's a very young squad as well. There are a lot of them 23 and under. They don't have a great deal of experience.

"All these players need to convince that they are good enough for the club."

Will the new recruits help Thelin?

Aberdeen's flurry of signings at the end of the transfer window suggests the club were acutely aware of the lack of experience.

Nisbet, Armstrong, and Karlsson are not just squad players but acquisitions who could go straight into the starting team to play Livingston.

Nisbet, having returned permanently after his loan from Millwall last season, was Aberdeen's top scorer with 14 goals last term.

Midfielder Armstrong has struggled since leaving Southampton but has Premier League and international credentials, as well as experience in Scotland.

The addition of Karlsson looks a real coup. A Sweden player who Bologna paid about £10m only two years ago would normally be beyond Aberdeen's reach.

However, his struggle to make an impact in Serie A and his relationship with Thelin from his time at Elfsborg have made it a reality.

Karlsson scored 46 goals and laid on a further 33 in 129 appearances at AZ Alkmaar, so if Aberdeen can get the best from him he will be one of the most talented players in the league.

If the new trio can come in and make an impact it also reduces the burden on some of the younger players who have been struggling.

There are other recruits, like striker Marko Lazetic and left-back Emmanuel Gyamfi, who have had disrupted pre-seasons and could now have more influence.

The process of improving needs to start swiftly, however, and there is much to prove for the players and manager.

Thelin has been backed more than any Aberdeen boss in his three windows and, although he will always be remembered fondly for the Scottish Cup triumph, football moves on quickly.

The club have a winnable run of games and it is now over to the manager to show he can field a consistent side which turns in regularly good performances.

With the rigours of Conference League football to juggle as well as domestic matters, that will be no easy task.

That's why there will be a combination of nerves and excitement at Pittodrie on Saturday when Livingston arrive.