Reverse Wrexham: Carlisle's US dream goes sour

Between them Paul Simpson, Mike Williamson and Mark Hughes have signed 26 players and used 42 in League Two this season

A club with a passionate fanbase and a strong foothold in its local community with definite opportunity for growth.

Carlisle United share many similarities with Wrexham and were an attractive proposition for the Florida-based Piatak family to take over the club in November 2023.

After relegation from League One 12 months ago, the expectation was to challenge for an immediate return.

Throw in a World Cup winner and local hero, a Premier League legend, one of the biggest budgets in League Two and the sixth biggest crowds.

What could possibly go wrong?

Yet if they lose at Cheltenham Town on Saturday or Tranmere Rovers beat Crewe Alexandra, Carlisle will be relegated to the National League.

Since winning the play-off final, Carlisle have lost 53 of their 90 league games

So how has it come to this?

It is less than two years since Carlisle had the greatest day in their recent history when they won promotion to League One by beating Stockport County in the League Two play-off final at Wembley.

It was unlikely, and unexpected, and further cemented manager Paul Simpson's status as a local hero, back for his second spell in charge and adding a third promotion to the honours list.

Sadly, the jump proved too big for Carlisle, who were competing in the third tier with a budget befitting the bottom half of League Two.

Unable to compete on or off the pitch, the Blues were relegated with a club-record low of 30 points after winning only seven games in the worst season in the club's history.

However, during that campaign, the Piataks had come in guaranteeing investment and with big future plans, as they got used to the workings of English football.

Simpson backed. Then sacked

Simpson had survived relegation and was given the close season to rebuild, overseeing 12 new arrivals as the owners anticipated an immediate return to League One.

Inside wisdom suggested the man who guided England Under-20s to success in the World Cup in 2017 would be given 10 games to show he could mount a promotion challenge.

He managed four.

Three losses out of those games - including heavy defeats on the road at Gillingham and pertinently at MK Dons - saw him leave his job on 31 August, the day after the transfer window had closed.

Under caretaker boss Mark Birch, two more games were lost, but owner Tom Piatak said promotion was still achievable, shortly before announcing Mike Williamson as the new head coach with the club languishing in 22nd.

The hierarchy were keen on the team developing a possession-based style and had been impressed by Williamson's MK Dons side in that 3-0 defeat in August.

Carlisle won once at Brunton Park between 17 August and 22 March

'Williamson-ball' didn't work at all

The former Newcastle United defender won his first game in charge at Swindon Town, but it proved to be a false dawn.

He failed to win over the Brunton Park crowd, who were not impressed by his switch to three at the back and the team's slow, cat-and-mouse style.

In fact, the fans made up their mind during the Boxing Day home loss to bottom club Morecambe and chanted for Williamson's removal.

Instead, the change was a drastic one to the playing squad, as Williamson, together with newly appointed sporting director Rob Clarkson, brought in 11 players during the January transfer window, confident they would improve the style and the results.

The idea was that these players would fit a newly created "Carlisle way" that would run through the club and not be dependent on the individual picking the team.

During that busy period in early January, Tom Piatak doubled down on his backing for Williamson.

But just over three weeks later, on 3 February, deadline day itself, Williamson was sacked following a shambolic 5-1 home defeat by Swindon, with nine of the 15 players involved January signings.

He won just four of 22 league games, while crucially the team failed to score in half of those.

Is Hughes' revival too late?

Looking for a second new boss of the season, Carlisle stunned most when they brought in Wales and Manchester United legend Mark Hughes.

He had been out of work for 16 months since leaving Bradford City, but it was a surprise to see him arriving in Cumbria to try to save the bottom club in the EFL from relegation.

Performances improved under the 61-year-old, but not at the rate required to pull Carlisle out of trouble.

Hughes criticised the squad's fitness after losing at Harrogate Town in early March, stating he had to make substitutions based on players' ability to last 90 minutes rather than for tactical reasons.

Even at such a late stage of the campaign, Hughes had to organise bounce games in training in midweek to get people up to match fitness and to assess the huge squad at his disposal.

Victory over Bromley on 22 March, only a second on their own turf since August, was delivered with only two of the 11 January arrivals starting the game.

Now Carlisle go into the game at Cheltenham in their best form for two years with 10 points out of a possible 12, as Hughes has found a successful formula, but the feeling is that they have given themselves too much to do. If Tranmere win either of their last two games, whatever the Blues do will be irrelevant.

Centre-back and captain Sam Lavelle is joint top scorer with just four goals

How do Carlisle move forward?

If the worst happens, Carlisle would have to prepare for their first season in the National League since 2005.

That was a brief stay as they climbed back into the EFL at the first time of asking, but this relegation would be a colossal failure.

A bloated squad will have to be trimmed, regardless of what division the team is in, and a decision will have to be made on who is in charge.

Would Hughes want to stay on? Or would the club opt for a manager with National League experience?

In recent seasons, Stockport County and Wrexham have shown what can happen in terms of momentum generated from coming up from the National League.

But both were marooned in non-league for over a decade before sorting themselves out - that is not a fate Carlisle fans want to contemplate after two seasons of utter misery.

'Carlisle are in a mess' - Analysis

Paul Newton, BBC Radio Cumbria sports editor

On Saturday 26 April 1975, Carlisle United were saying goodbye to their one and only season in the top flight of English football with a 0-0 draw at champions Derby County.

Fast forward exactly 50 years to Saturday, 26 April 2025 and the Cumbrians are facing the possibility of another relegation – however, this one would see them saying goodbye to their EFL status.

The last and, so far, only time that fate was to befall Carlisle, their opponents were Cheltenham Town in 2004. Carlisle's opponents this Saturday? You guessed it, Cheltenham.

Carlisle fans don't need history to frame what has been another disastrous campaign. The prospect of back-to-back relegations under the club's American owners, the Piataks, is all too real, and serious questions will be asked about just what has gone so badly wrong.

Fans will point to some highly questionable decision-making – from the timing of Paul Simpson and Mike Williamson's sackings to four successive disastrous transfer windows despite substantial investment in the playing squad.

Even if Carlisle do somehow pull off an escape arguably more miraculous than the famous Jimmy Glass one in these remaining two games, Carlisle, on the field, are in a mess.

When the Piataks took over the club in October 2023, their promise was for Carlisle to "Own The North". Right now, that reality couldn't feel any further away.