How many points do you need to stay in the Premier League?
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Premier League teams finishing on 36 or more points in each of the last nine seasons were guaranteed safety from relegation.
In the 20-team Premier League era, starting from the 1995-96 season, the average number of points needed for survival, or the number of points the 18th place team finished plus one, is 35.53 - rounded up to 36 points.
No team in the last nine campaigns have earned 36 points and been relegated.
In the 30 Premier League seasons that have had 38 games a season for each club, 36 points would have ensured survival 60% of the time.
This season is expected to be a familiar tale. After 12 rounds of games, 18th is currently on track to finish on 35 points, meaning 36 points would ensure survival for a 10th consecutive campaign.
That rate of survival increases to 80% for 38 points, 90% for 40 points and 100% for 43 or more points.
West Ham hold the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era. In the 2002-03 season, the Hammers picked up 42 points but were still relegated.
The safety thresholds for last two seasons have been significantly lower due to newly-promoted teams struggling in the Premier League. The last two seasons have seen 26 and 27 points be enough to seal safety respectively.
Only once prior to the 2023-24 season has a total below 30 points been enough to seal survival.
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Points needed to guarantee safety
Wolves have picked up just two points from their opening 12 Premier League games of the season
25 points or less – survival in 0/30 seasons (0%)
26 – survival in 1/30 seasons (3.33%)
27 – survival in 2/30 seasons (6.67%)
28 – survival in 2/30 seasons (6.67%)
29 – survival in 3/30 seasons (10%)
30 – survival in 3/30 seasons (10%)
31 – survival in 4/30 seasons (13.33%)
32 – survival in 4/30 seasons (13.33%)
33 – survival in 4/30 seasons (13.33%)
34 – survival in 9/30 seasons (30%)
35 – survival in 16/30 seasons (53.33%)
36 – survival in 18/30 seasons (60%)
37 – survival in 23/30 seasons (76.67%)
38 – survival in 24/30 seasons (80%)
39 – survival in 26/30 seasons (86.67%)
40 – survival in 27/30 seasons (90%)
41 – survival in 29/30 seasons (96.67%)
42 – survival in 29/30 seasons (96.67%)
43+ – survival in 30/30 seasons (100%)
History of points needed to survive in the Premier League
1992-93 – 50 (42-game season)
1993-94 – 43 (42-game season)
1994-95 – 46 (42-game season)
1995-96 – 39
1996-97 – 41
1997-98 – 41
1998-99 – 37
1999-00 – 34
2000-01 – 35
2001-02 – 37
2002-03 – 43
2003-04 – 34
2004-05 – 34
2005-06 – 35
2006-07 – 39
2007-08 – 37
2008-09 – 35
2009-10 – 31
2010-11 – 40
2011-12 – 37
2012-13 – 37
2013-14 – 34
2014-15 – 36
2015-16 – 38
2016-17 – 35
2017-18 – 34
2018-19 – 35
2019-20 – 35
2020-21 – 29
2021-22 – 36
2022-23 – 35
2023-24 – 27
2024-25 - 26
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