Why next five days are key to Scots' World Cup hopes

Steve Clarke's Scotland have won just once since September 2023

Nations League: Scotland v Croatia

Venue: Hampden Park, Glasgow Date: Friday, 15 November Time: 19:45 GMT

Coverage: Listen live on BBC Sounds and BBC Radio Scotland and follow live updates on the BBC Sport website & app

The late Craig Brown was as dedicated as he was meticulous as Scotland manager.

There was always a match to prepare for, but Brown was studious when it came to the mid-to-long term prospects of the national team.

Seeding for future tournaments was never far from his mind when it came to choosing friendly opposition and attempting to boost the team’s ranking whenever possible.

In September 2023, Scotland defeated Cyprus in Euro 2024 qualifying to effectively seal a place at the finals in Germany. They have only won once since and not at all competitively.

With a Nations League promotion secured the year before and a major tournament to prepare for, the decision was taken to take on friendlies, generally, against top-ranked nations.

There followed punishing defeats by England, France and the Netherlands, with competitive losses to Spain and the Euro 2024 humbling at the hands of the hosts on the opening night in Munich.

Failing to get the better of Georgia, an Erling Haaland-less Norway in their final Euro qualifiers, and Northern Ireland and Finland in friendlies did not help the cause as Scotland struggled to regain the composure they had previously showed in spades.

What damage has slow Nations League start done?

The evidence in the performances in Nations League A this autumn points to an improved level against Europe's bigger nations.

With the exception of the first half of the opener against Poland, Scotland have performed well, even if results have not neccessarily followed.

That frustrating late defeat against the Poles at Hampden is increasingly looking like a blow to the prospect of reaching a first World Cup since 1998, when Brown had the reins. Steve Clarke needs snookers to make the path smoother as a result.

His side lost 3-2 to Poland despite roaring back from 2-0 down at half-time. Since then, despite some strong showings, they remain winless with the visit of Croatia and a trip to Poland to go.

Thanks to a run of one win in 16 and the longest-ever sequence of competitive games without a victory, Scotland’s world ranking has plummeted to 51. It had been as high as 30th after the wins over Norway and Georgia in June 2023.

They are now just outside the top 24 in Europe, which means they are destined for pot three in the qualifying draw for the World Cup in the Americas in 2026.

Can Scotland still turn it round?

As is usually the case with Scotland, a crumb of hope remains at the business end of a campaign. In this case, it is that pot three can stil be avoided.

They can still, incredibly, scramble a place in pot one and avoid the highest-ranked nations in next year’s qualifiers by squeezing into the top two in their Nations League section alongside Portugal.

That is because world rankings will only be used to determine the World Cup qualification pots for sides who finish outside the top two of Nations League A.

But that would require Scotland winning consecutive games for the first time since the halcyon days of those early Euro 2024 qualifiers last year.

Due to the head-to-head tiebreaker, it would need a two-goal win over Croatia at Hampden on Friday and similar in Poland on Monday. At the same time, Portugal would need to beat the Poles at home, and do the same to the Croats in Zagreb.

If that sequence comes to pass, Scotland would finish in a improbable second place in the section and seal both a pot-one berth for the World Cup qualifying draw on December 13 and a place in March’s Nations League quarter-finals.

What happens if they don't make top pot?

The benefits of being in pot one are obvious given only the group winners in World Cup qualifying are guaranteed a place at the finals, with the runners-up going into the play-offs.

Only Nations League group winners have the insurance policy of a guaranteed play-off and that horse has long since bolted for Scotland.

It means that if the Scots are in pot three they could face a tricky route to a first World Cup in what will be 28 years by the time the tournament rolls around.

France, Spain or England are among the top seeds, and pot two could throw up games with the likes of Ukraine, Turkey, Slovakia, Greece or Norway rather than pot three sides such as Finland, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland or Iceland.

Is pot two still an option?

That is largely out of Scotland’s hands. Clarke's side will need two wins in the next five days and results elsewhere to go their way - chiefly Norway, who beat Slovenia on Thursday, losing at home to Kazakhstan.

Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Greece are also within striking distance for the Scots.

Furthermore, while third place might do little to aid their World Cup ambitions, it would put Scotland into a Nations League relegation play-off in the spring and give them a chance of preserving League A status. But that's for another time,

Regardless of what happens, these next two games will have repercussions for the next 12 months for this Scotland team.