England too strong for Wales? Brown-Finnis' Euros predictions - final group games
- Published
England can make sure of a place in the quarter-finals of Euro 2025 by beating Wales on Sunday, but will the holders get the result they need?
BBC Sport football expert Rachel Brown-Finnis is predicting the outcome of all 31 games in Switzerland.
She got seven of the eight second round of group matches correct, compared to 5/8 in the first set of games, but was caught out by Portugal's draw with Italy.
You did not see that result coming either, with 50% of you backing Italy to win, and like Rachel you ended up with a score of 7/8 overall.
One of the games that pretty much everyone was right about was Spain's victory over Belgium - 87% went with a win for the world champions - but out of the thousands of votes, only one reader got the 6-2 scoreline spot-on. A big shout-out to them, for the best prediction of the tournament so far.
Will you and Rachel do better next time? You can make your own predictions for the final set of group games below.
Brown-Finnis has also picked her two teams to go through from each group into the knockout stage, and given her reasons why.
She is backing England to win the Euros again, and believes Wales won't get out of their group.
Group A
Brown-Finnis' pre-tournament picks: Norway (winners) and Switzerland (runners-up).
I had Switzerland to go through and am sticking with that as they are growing into the tournament. There is not a lot between these two teams and a draw would do it for the Swiss.
Finland have not particularly looked prolific. They got their 1-0 win over Iceland in the opening game but the red card to Iceland's Hildur Antonsdottir helped them more than anything.
Switzerland were unlucky against Norway in their opener but I believe they can do it and the Swiss crowd will help with that. It would be huge for the tournament if the host nation go through.
A potential quarter-final tie against Spain is on the cards but you can't look that far ahead.
Brown-Finnis' prediction: 1-1
Norway are already through as group winners and there is nothing to play for so it's an opportunity to try out different players and I would expect some changes.
In recent history they have been underachievers for all their super firepower, but they have two types of performances and that first-half performance against Switzerland was memorable for all the wrong reasons. It was an unrecognisable Norweigan team. For the quality on the pitch, they were 2/10 and some players might benefit from the rest against Iceland.
I can see Iceland getting something from the game because they will be bitterly disappointed that they are already out of the tournament. They have had two draws against Norway already in the Nations League this year and will want to prove a point and get the win.
Brown-Finnis' prediction: 1-1
Group B
Brown-Finnis' pre-tournament picks: Spain (winners) and Portugal (runners-up).
11 July, 20:00 BST
Stadion Wankdorf, Bern
World ranking: 13th v 2nd
Best Euros finish: Italy: runner-up in 1993 & 1997. Spain: semi-finals in 1997.
If Italy lose to Spain and Portugal beat Belgium, we could have a situation where the quarter-finalist is decided on goal difference. That is a worry for Italy because as we have already seen, Spain can score six quite easily.
Spain need to avoid defeat to top the group and even if they rest players I don't think it will make any difference because the players they have brought on have been players that would start in most other international teams.
Spain are playing like a team from another planet and have been the best side to watch so far. They just seem to have clicked. Italy will be a different test. They can keep the ball quite well, they can be physical and a little bit dirty at times and that could rattle Spain.
Italy have scored some absolute peaches. I have really enjoyed watching them. They have improved massively. Italy are going for a win and it is unlikely they are not going to go through, but it could be another really open game.
Brown-Finnis' prediction: 1-3
11 July, 20:00 BST
Stade de Tourbillon, Sion
World ranking: 22nd v 20th
Best Euros finish: Portugal: groups in 2017 & 2022. Belgium: quarter-finals in 2022.
I originally thought Portugal would progress from the group behind Spain but now it is a massive ask.
Facing Spain in the opener is always tough, but the 1-1 draw against Italy was the critical game and the one that killed Portugal. I had them to go through but then Italy have improved more and they have edged it with more quality in the final third that Portugal have not had.
There is still a chance for Portugal and they have to go for it. They know they are good at attacking, they just haven't had that final bit of quality as much as they would have needed.
Belgium have not had the cutting edge and the quality to get the points. They played against teams that have been really difficult to play against. We have seen Belgium can catch you on the counter-attack and they could get three points against which would be a consolation, but nothing else.
Brown-Finnis' prediction: 2-2
Group C
Brown-Finnis' pre-tournament picks: Germany (winners) and Sweden (runners-up).
12 July, 20:00 BST
Stadion Letzigrund, Zurich
World ranking: 6th v 3rd
Best Euros finish: Sweden: winners in 1984. Germany: Eight-time winners between 1989 & 2013.
Both of these teams have a huge amount of pride in tournament football but Sweden are sick to death of being the bridesmaids since their 1984 triumph, while Germany have won the tournament a record eight times in the past.
Germany, without their injured captain Giulia Gwinn, will be wounded but they want to prove they can still push for the title in this battle for top spot in the group.
Sweden haven't conceded a goal yet but it will be a big ask for them to keep another clean sheet with the German firepower.
Germany had 16,000 fans at their game against Denmark and will have huge support in Zurich once again, but there will always be a sea of Sweden's blue and yellow. The fans might come into it but both sets of players are used to playing in sellout stadiums both domestically and internationally and they are ready for the big stage.
Brown-Finnis' prediction: 0-1
12 July, 20:00 BST
Allmend Stadion Luzern, Lucerne
World ranking: 27th v 12th
Best Euros finish: Poland: first-time qualifiers. Denmark: runners-up in 2017.
There is nothing riding on this game and Denmark will be so disappointed their tournament is over, with the likes of their captain Pernille Harder potentially playing her last tournament.
They had high hopes coming into Euro 2025, but to get Sweden and Germany in that group was a tough ask.
Poland haven't been embarrassed on their major tournament debut and they have held their own.
They have made progress and that's why they are here and they should be very happy with that. I would love them to score a goal and especially Ewa Pajor because she is a quality player. That would make history and she is probably the right person to do that for Poland.
Brown-Finnis' prediction: 1-3
Group D
Brown-Finnis' pre-tournament picks: England (winners) and France (runners-up).
13 July, 20:00 BST
St Jakob-Park, Basel
World ranking: 11th v 10th
Best Euros finish: The Netherlands: winners in 2017. France: semi-finals in 2022.
France's attack at this tournament has been frightening, with only Spain scoring more than them. The potential of the squad hasn't always translated into performances at major tournaments. Their team is impressive just on paper, so as a neutral it is great to see them use their players to get results and performances.
They are going to be hard to stop but they have conceded goals and shown teams how you can get at them. It will be interesting to see if there is any wavering.
The Netherlands will be desperate to bounce back and know they have the quality and the tactics to hurt France. It will be interesting whether they start with Lineth Beerensteyn in the nine shirt and put Vivianne Miedema a little bit deeper. Miedema was pretty much man-marked by England and had no breathing space.
England didn't let the Dutch play at all, but being well-beaten by the Lionesses might just do what the France game did for England and reinvigorate them. It could be a really tasty game. France have scored loads of goals, but the Netherlands are here to get through to the knockouts.
Brown-Finnis' prediction: 2-3
13 July, 20:00 BST
Arena St Gallen, St Gallen
World ranking: 5th v 30th
Best Euros finish: England: winners in 2022. Wales: first-time qualifiers.
Group D is going to go right to the wire and the head-to-head between the home nations will be the biggest game for both teams.
I had full confidence that with the obvious task at hand, England would bring a whole new level of performance against the Netherlands and they did absolutely that. They pulled out all the stops and Sarina Wiegman's tactical tweaks and subtle changes worked brilliantly.
They all performed individually and collectively towards their maximum and it was all-round a really watertight performance. There were no cracks. It was as close to a perfect performance as you can have.
For Jess Fishlock to score Wales' first ever goal at a major tournament was really monumental and poignant and couldn't have been written better as a script. They didn't get the result ultimately but to go toe-to-toe with France was really impressive.
England know that it is not going to be easy and will be relatively conservative. They won't want to leave any gaps for Wales to nick something.
Wales would absolutely love to get something from England, especially if it means that England don't go through to the knockout stages. They will try and rattle the Lionesses and want to go out with a bang. England need to not get drawn into that.
Brown-Finnis' prediction: 2-0
- Published31 January
