Who will claim the final Championship play-off spots?

Split image showing Coventry's Frank Lampard, West Brom boss Tony Mowbray, Bristol City head coach Liam Manning and Michael Carrick of MiddlesbroughImage source, Rex Features/Getty Images
Image caption,

(from left to right) Coventry's Frank Lampard, West Brom boss Tony Mowbray, Bristol City head coach Liam Manning and Michael Carrick of Middlesbrough

The March international break tends to give way to a certain degree of madness in the football schedule.

And there are few more chaotically compelling situations than what tends to transpire in the Championship play-off race.

One spot in the final four is guaranteed to be filled by Leeds, Sheffield United or Burnley, while Sunderland's position seems secured, considering their 12-point lead on West Bromwich Albion and Bristol City (Opta give the Black Cats less than a 0.1% chance of falling to seventh).

But the other two positions? Well, there are, feasibly, nine teams, who could take those.

BBC Sport spoke to nine local correspondents from the remaining (and realistic) challengers to assess the respective strengths and weaknesses of those still holding play-off interests with eight games of the season remaining.

The Championship table with an image of Sunderland's Leo Hjelde and Chris Rigg celebratingImage source, BBC Sport
Image caption,

With Sunderland's top six place all-but sealed, nine other sides below them are battling for two play-off places

The home (and away) straight

Bristol City have the toughest run-in of the nine teams in play-off contention with trips to Burnley and Leeds United to come.

Based on Opta's Power Rankings, external - a system that assigns a score from 0-100 across more than 13,000 men's domestic teams - the average rating of their remaining opponents is 80.9, compared to Sheffield Wednesday's whose are 77.7.

5th. Coventry City - 59pts

Form (most recent first): WLWWWW

Top goalscorer: Haji Wright (10)

Most assists: Jack Rudoni (10)

Clive Eakin, BBC Radio CWR

Why they will make the play-offs

When Frank Lampard took over in November he didn't rule out a play-off push but admitted the first aim was to steer clear of relegation.

Now, 10 wins from their past 12 matches has propelled Coventry firmly into the top six and they have that crucial ingredient - momentum.

Without making radical changes, Lampard seems to have instilled belief among players and fans alike.

He has benefited from the return of key players after injury lay-offs, notably Haji Wright who scored a hat-trick against Sunderland just before the break. The signing of midfield player Matt Grimes has also been key.

Why they won't

The 2-0 defeat at Derby was a sobering one and left some fans wondering if the team could maintain a play-off challenge and yet they followed that setback with arguably their best performance of the season so far against Sunderland.

After a number of injury issues they're relatively clear of problems, but if key players get injured again it could put a strain on Lampard's modestly-sized squad.

Lampard has undoubtedly improved his team's record at the back and yet defensive questions still arise. The 3-0 victory over the Wearsiders was Coventry's first clean sheet in six games and they conceded two in four of their previous five matches.

6th. West Bromwich Albion - 57pts

West Brom's Tom Fellows shields the ball from Sheffield United's Harrison BurrowsImage source, Rex Features
Image caption,

Tom Fellows has enjoyed a breakout season for West Brom, delivering 11 assists and scoring twice in the Championship

Form: DDWDWD

Top goalscorer: Josh Maja (12)

Most assists: Tom Fellows (11)

Steve Hermon, BBC Radio WM

Why they will make the play-offs

The Baggies perform much better against the top teams - they're unbeaten against all five sides above them – and they still have Sunderland, Coventry, Bristol City and Norwich to play. Taking points off those rivals will only boost their claims.

Tony Mowbray, who reached a play-off final in his first spell, also hopes to have top scorer Josh Maja back for the end of season run. A strike force of Maja and last season's Wembley match-winner Adam Armstrong would arguably be the best in the division. It's theirs to lose.

Why they won't

Albion have drawn more games than any other side in English football and while those 18 stalemates include holding the runaway top three to draws home and away, there are more occasions where you can look back and consider them as two points dropped.

The Baggies have failed to win back-to-back games since they were top of the tree in September and have picked up just four wins on the road all season. With trips to play-off rivals Norwich, Coventry and Bristol City to come, it's that inconsistency that could cost them a place.

7th. Bristol City - 57pts

Anis Mehmeti tries to keep possession under pressure from Hull's Lewie CoyleImage source, Rex Features
Image caption,

Anis Mehmeti (centre) is enjoying the best-ever goalscoring season of his career

Form: WDDWWD

Top goalscorer: Anis Mehmeti (12)

Most assists: Max Bird (7)

Ed Hadwin, BBC Radio Bristol

Why they will make the play-offs?

Other than Coventry, Bristol City go into the final eight matches with the best form of any of the teams chasing a play-off place.

They're unbeaten in their past seven having played Sheffield United, Norwich and Middlesbrough in that stretch.

Under Liam Manning, they have become a team very much more than the sum of their parts, with big contributions from throughout the squad.

Why they won't

No one in the chasing pack has as tough a run-in as City do, with trips to both Burnley and Leeds and home games against West Brom and Sunderland to come.

It does, however, give them the opportunity to take points off at least one of their rivals, with the West Brom match in particular looking key.

Injuries have also bitten in defence with Luke McNally and George Tanner both missing although the imminent return of Ross McCrorie could be a big boost.

8th. Middlesbrough - 54pts

Form: DWLWWL

Top goalscorer: Tommy Conway (11)

Most assists: Finn Azaz (11)

Paul Addison, BBC Radio Tees

Why they will make the play-offs

The signs are that Michael Carrick may have weathered the storm that many thought would cost him his job.

There should hopefully be some good news on the way in terms of fit and available central defenders (Boro have had none for their previous two matches) following the international break.

If the likes of Finn Azaz, Tommy Conway and Delano Burgzorg can click at the other end there's every chance of a play-off spot.

Why they won't

It's all about one word – consistency.

Boro have struggled throughout the season to string any kind of winning run together – their best came back in November when they won four out of five matches and scored 18 goals in the process.

The loss of Emmanuel Latte Lath in January has been a massive blow – not just the goals he brought to the side, but his all-round work ethic has also been badly missed.

Kelechi Iheanacho arrived on loan but has been a big disappointment with no goals so far and still looking quite a way off full fitness.

9th. Blackburn Rovers - 52pts

Blackburn manager Valerien Ismael in the dugoutImage source, Rex Features
Image caption,

Valerien Ismael is winless from his first four games in charge of Blackburn

Form: LLLDLW

Top goalscorer: Andreas Weimann (7)

Most assists: Makhtar Gueye (6)

Andy Bayes, BBC Radio Lancashire

Why they will make the play-offs

Rovers go into the final eight games potentially feeling like there is nothing to lose.

Until the draw with Norwich four games ago, they had only spent a few days outside of the top six since November. They've been derailed by an unexpected managerial change and it's firmly up to the players to show that they can respond to the instructions of new boss Valerien Ismael.

The relative freedom of being five points away with a vastly inferior goal difference could remove the tension to some degree. The final four home matches are all against sides in a similar position too. The results of those will go a long way to determining their fate.

The return of key defenders Danny Batth, Owen Beck and Harry Pickering will add experience and athleticism too.

Why they won't

Four wins in 18 following a six-game winning run before Christmas would suggest that Rovers go into the final eight games as outsiders.

The hopes of a 'bounce' under Ismael hasn't materialised.

Injuries have hit them hard as well. January signings Emmanuel Dennis and Augustus Kargbo both have hamstring problems that will rule them out for the majority of the run-in, Andi Weimann won't play again this season and right-back Callum Brittain, who has been one of the star performers, is also on the sidelines.

10th. Watford - 52pts

Vakoun Bayo slides on his knees to celebrate scoring for WatfordImage source, Rex Features
Image caption,

Vakoun Bayo is Watford's top scorer but has just one Championship goal in his past 15 appearances

Form: LWLDWW

Top goalscorer: Vakoun Bayo (10)

Most assists: Giorgi Chakvetadze (6)

Geoff Doyle, BBC 3CR

Why they will make the play-offs

Watford should have some key players back from injury after the international break. Forward Kwadwo Baah is the most significant. Before he damaged his thigh he was really hitting top form down the right and causing opposition major problems.

Midfielder Pierre Dwomoh, defender Kevin Keben and goalkeeper Daniel Bachmann should also be returning soon to boost the squad depth.

The Hornets' remaining fixtures means they also have the chance to take points off some of those teams fighting above them as well as some who have struggled this season like Plymouth, Hull and Portsmouth.

Why they won't

They have left just a bit too much to do. Inconsistency has been an issue all season and to make the top six they cannot afford to lose many games now.

The Hornets needed to recruit in January to give themselves a fighting chance and although centre-back James Abankwah and goalkeeper Egil Selvik have been excellent additions they didn't bring in a striker which was, and still is, needed.

Watford, before the break, were actually controlling and dominating matches more than they had done all season but it didn't translate into more points. The Hornets have lacked that cutting edge needed for promotion.

11th. Millwall - 51pts

Mihailo Ivanovic celebrates scoring the winning goal against StokeImage source, Rex Features
Image caption,

Mihailo Ivanovic (right) has scored four of his six Championship goals in the past two months

Form: WLWLLW

Top goalscorer: Mihailo Ivanovic (6)

Most assists: Femi Azeez (5)

Nick Godwin, BBC Radio London

Why they will make the play-offs

Millwall's chances really depend on whether or not Alex Neil can make his team adventurous enough to score goals consistently enough.

Mihailo Ivanovic found the physicality of the Championship hard going in the early months of the season but seems to be improving all the time.

There were loads of changes in January but it's possible the manager could find the right formula to put a run of results together, as he has done before, which could allow them to slip in. And no one wants to play a play-off semi-final at The Den.

Why they won't

It's been a season of huge change. Neil Harris left and Neil came in, Romain Esse emerged as a prodigious talent and promptly got sold to Crystal Palace. That, in turn, released extra funds in January and more signings were made.

So it would be a colossal ask for this much-changed team to become consistent enough to challenge for the play-offs.

There appears to be no pressure from the club's hierarchy to see this happen and it may well be the manager is given the time - and another active summer transfer window - to bring together a team properly capable of a top-six challenge.

12th. Sheffield Wednesday - 51pts

Sheffield Wednesday manager Danny Rohl gesticulates from the touchlineImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Danny Rohl has a 40.74% win rate since taking over as Sheffield Wednesday manager in October 2023

Form: LWWLLL

Top goalscorer: Josh Windass (11)

Most assists: Anthony Musaba/Josh Windass/Shea Charles (5)

Rob Staton, BBC Radio Sheffield

Why they will make the play-offs

Danny Rohl pulled off the great escape a year ago with an improbable late run to keep Wednesday in the Championship. They can use that experience to launch another run to close the season.

It'll be a big ask but the impressive German and his players will feel like they can do it if they can come back from the international break and start positively. Owls fans have enjoyed dramatic ends to the season in the last two years. It can happen again.

Why they won't

The home form. Wednesday have won nine games away from home, third-most in the Championship. At Hillsborough it's a different story - they're 23rd in the table.

They've had multiple opportunities to win, yet they've somehow failed to convert these performances into victories. Without an improvement here to finish the season, they won't push for the top six.

Their depth is also being tested by injuries at the back.

13th. Norwich City - 49pts

Borja Sainz hugs Josh Sargent in celebrationImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Borja Sainz (17) and Josh Sargent (12) account for 48% of Norwich's goals

Form: LLDDWD

Top goalscorer: Borja Sainz (17)

Most assists: Callum Doyle (7)

Chris Goreham, BBC Radio Norfolk

Why they will make the play-offs

The Canaries have scored 60 times in the league this season, only Leeds have netted more. It's at least three more than every other Championship team. Borja Sainz is the division's top scorer with 18 and he's one of only three players to have outscored Josh Sargent.

They have also managed to take the lead against every single team in the division other than QPR, Preston, Bristol City and Portsmouth. They still have to play Pompey at home.

Why they won't

The last point is pertinent. Norwich have dropped 30 points from winning positions this season. They have won only one of their past eight league games which is hardly top-six form.

They also still have to play West Brom and Sunderland at home with Burnley and Middlesbrough away among a tough run-in. Last season Norwich clinched sixth with 73 points. They will need to win all eight of their final matches to match that total. So the maths, as well as logic, are well and truly against them.