Premier League predictions 2025-26: BBC Sport pundits pick their top four

Liverpool's Premier League triumph surprised a lot of people last season, but will they successfully defend their title?

That is the target for Reds boss Arne Slot, whose side finished 10 points clear of nearest rivals Arsenal last time out.

But can the Gunners finally take the next step after coming second for three years running? How will Manchester City respond after losing their crown after winning four in a row? Can Chelsea improve on last season's fourth-placed finish, and will anyone else figure at the top?

We asked 32 BBC TV and radio pundits to pick their top four, with explanations for their selections.

This time we've also asked AI's opinion, and included what Opta's 'Supercomputer' came up with too.

The AI prediction was generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat - we simply asked the tool to 'predict the Premier League table for the 2025-26 season'.

Opta's 'Supercomputer' is actually a complex algorithm that uses a model based on betting market odds and the sports analytics company's own 'Power Rankings', which are calculated using past results.

It has simulated the outcome of all 380 Premier League games 10,000 times and has come to the same conclusion as 12 of our pundits - including Chris Sutton, who performs a similar calculation when he makes his predictions each week.

Disagree with our expert humans or think you know more than any machine? You can make your own top-four prediction, and forecast the rest of the Premier League table, at the bottom of this page.

These predictions were made on the basis of how each squad shaped up on Thursday, 14 August, with more than two weeks to go until the transfer window shuts at 19:00 BST on Monday, 1 September.

Last season, nine teams featured in the forecasted top-four positions, but this time there are only four named.

Overall expected ranking, using all 34 predictions is:

1. Liverpool (121 points)

2. Arsenal (90)

3. Man City (83)

4. Chelsea (46)

Using a system of four points for a first place, three points for second, two points for third and one point for fourth.

Liverpool - 'if they get Isak then give them the title straight away'

Only two out of 30 BBC predictors thought Liverpool would finish higher than third last season - this time, 21/34 have them down as champions and only three think they will finish lower than second.

Danny Murphy: It's always hard doing predictions before the window has shut because there is still a lot of business to be done, including at Liverpool. I do believe this is going to be a really tight title race and they might not hit the ground running because of the number of new players they have got, but I'm going with Slot's side because of their abundance of talent in midfield and the confidence they will have from last season, plus I'm certain they are going to sign a couple more on top of what they have done already.

Chris Sutton: I am going with Liverpool whether they sign Newcastle striker Alexander Isak or not. But I actually think it is going to be difficult for them. Sub-consciously, you wonder how the players are dealing with the death of Diogo Jota and if it has any effect, so they have got that to deal with.

Troy Deeney: Liverpool have got already better in every area. I know they have lost Trent Alexander-Arnold but Jeremie Frimpong is just as good at right-back - not with his passing range, but they don't need that with the other players they have got. Up front, they won the league last year without having an out-and-out number nine. They have still got Mohamed Salah and now have Hugo Ekitike, and potentially Isak too.

Alan Shearer: Liverpool are favourites, even without Isak. You just have to look at what they did last season, and how they won the title at a canter.

Wayne Rooney: I hope Isak stays at Newcastle to be honest! I already have Liverpool as favourites to win the Premier League but if Isak comes in then they are going to be unstoppable. A big thing was them replacing Alexander-Arnold, because a lot of their chances and goals came from that right side, but I think Frimpong has got the attributes to go and fill that.

Steve Sidwell: They were incredible last season post-Jurgen Klopp and I just see them getting better and better. If they get Isak then give them the title straight away.

Rachel Brown-Finnis: Each time City were champions under Guardiola, they would add a player or two. You would think they can't get any better, but they did, and Liverpool have done the same.

Anita Asante: They have added depth and players with versatility - there's good balance in the team that will allow for positional rotation.

Thomas Hitzlsperger: They will be great to watch with Florian Wirtz in the team, but defending the title is a different challenge altogether.

Leon Osman: I originally thought Liverpool for the title again. They won easily enough last season and strengthened well, but I don't know if they lack a little balance defensively in midfield with trying to fit Wirtz in, so they'll be coming away from that competitive kind of trio they've had in there for many years.

Nedum Onuoha: I expect them to push all the way to defend their title. The new signings for me will hit the ground running and show us what the team will look like for years to come.

Chris Waddle: They are exciting going forward, but their defence is a concern. I look at them and think they will concede. Virgil van Dijk is a classy player but at 34 he is getting on to play a lot of games at the highest level, and every game in the Premier League and Champions League matters for Liverpool.

Matt Upson: People looked at Van Dijk in the Community Shield and questioned him but that is just him at this stage of the season. He is a big lad, getting older and he can sometimes look sluggish. But then he gets into his rhythm and his decision-making is super sharp. He is so key for them with the way he orchestrates everything. They have brought two new full-backs into the team so of course it is going to take time for that unit to develop.

Chris Sutton: They definitely need at least one more centre-half for cover. I've been looking at a few things Slot said about how teams had started to work them out in the second half of last season, so it will be interesting to see whether they play a different way, and are more aggressive in the way they press the ball. If that is the case, it will put more pressure on their backline if teams are able to play through them.

Ellen White: If they get Isak and Marc Guehi from Palace then that is brilliant business, on top what they have done already. They are the team the others have to knock off that pedestal.

Theo Walcott: Their aggressive nature in the transfer market will bolster them to win it again.

Arsenal - 'They finally have the striker they have been looking for'

Last year 37% (11/30) of BBC predictors thought they would be champions for the first time since 2004. That figure is now down to 18% (6/34)

Martin Keown: The first six games of the season - including Manchester United, Liverpool and Newcastle away, and Manchester City at home - are going to be key. But I am going to turn what might have been a negative for Arsenal into a positive, because Liverpool's new players will be bedding in, City have had a reset and Newcastle have endured a difficult summer. The title race is still going to be very close but if Arsenal and Viktor Gyokeres can click straight away, then the solid building blocks they need to be champions are already in place.

Thomas Hitzlsperger: All of last season's top four have pros and cons but Arsenal finally have the striker they have been looking for, they didn't have the Fifa Club World Cup in the summer, plus the manager has been there for so long and has set the tone so we know what to expect from them. There have also been no big changes at the club or in the squad where you think that might unsettle them.

Anita Asante: Mikel Arteta's tactical blueprint is fully embedded. Arsenal's pressing traps, structured possession and defensive discipline gave them one of the best goal differences in the league. They now have a back-up winger for Bukayo Saka in Noni Madueke, and a modern striker in Gyokeres to address their goalscoring needs. They've had a thoughtful transfer window balancing creativity, stability and consistency.

Matt Upson: As well as the new striker, the young players Arteta has brought into the team are exceptional - teenagers Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri have got a full Premier League season under their belts and 15-year-old Max Dowman looks a special talent.

With the senior players, Declan Rice is getting better and better and I am expecting Martin Odegaard to have the bit between his teeth because he had a drop-off in form last season where he could not find his rhythm after his injury. He was operating as a six or seven out of 10 and if he gets back to his usual level of eight or nine, that really impacts the team. Then they have a pacy, physical and direct centre-forward in Gyokeres to get on the end of any chances they create.

Leon Osman: I'm sure Arteta won't expect the same injury crisis defensively they had last year and with a striker now on board they could get the job done.

Steve Sidwell: I think they will be very close but just miss out. Gyokeres is what their fans have wanted for so long, and he could bag a lot of goals.

Danny Murphy: Gyokeres is a powerhouse and he is going to score a lot of goals, there is no doubt about that. But Zubimendi is just as important a signing, because Thomas Partey was such an big player for them in midfield last season. With Jorginho going too, bringing in Christian Norgaard was a clever bit of business. He is a really clever footballer, who does his defensive work really well. They will be there or thereabouts again.

Sue Smith: Zubimendi really adds variety to midfield - he can hold, allowing Rice to go box-to-box and Odegaard to show his flair and creativity.

Glenn Murray: I don't think Gyokeres is the one - it's such a big step. I was with him at Brighton and I never had him down to be a £64m striker. When Ben White stepped into our first team, right away everyone knew how he good he was - he was of that standard. When Viktor came in, it was more a case where you thought he was all right. I am not sure he suits Arsenal's style, either.

Chris Waddle: Arsenal are strong and organised and if Gyokeres hits the ground running, they have got a very good chance of winning the title, but there is definitely pressure on Arteta this season to deliver. This has to be the year for him in the league because, when you spend as much as Arsenal have, you need to be able to say, 'look, there's a trophy'.

Troy Deeney: I know they have a striker now but I just feel they have missed their opportunity. Liverpool are coming on strong, while City and Chelsea will both be better this season.

Manchester City - 'A wounded City are dangerous'

City have been the BBC predictors' pre-season favourites in eight of the past nine seasons since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016, but only 18% (6/34) think they will reclaim the title from Liverpool this season.

Joe Hart: City's transfers look like good business to me - competitive business with the intention to do some damage this season, not just to build for a bright future. I think Guardiola has somewhat changed how he wants to play again, so the football could be spinning again. This will be a different City, so less predictable and harder for people to set up against, if they get it right.

Paul Robinson: They recruited well in January and the players they have brought in this summer will complement what they've got, and most of their squad has still been there and done it before. Pep is not going to be there forever and he has got a point to prove - a wounded City are dangerous!

Troy Deeney: City are going to be better all round. They can't be as bad as they were last year, and even then they still came third. They have addressed the left-back area which was a big concern, and they have got more flair, more pace and more power in midfield. They will have Erling Haaland back as well and he is going to score the amount of goals he always does.

Danny Murphy: City still have the best striker in the world, and Rodri's return is like a new signing - I know he is injured the moment but little setbacks are normal after a serious injury. I sense an improvement - they are going to push Liverpool all the way, with the brilliance of Pep and the reinforcements they have brought in.

Chris Waddle: City didn't have the legs last season. This is a new team now, without Kevin de Bruyne or Jack Grealish around, and it might take a bit of time for them to start functioning.

Thomas Hitzlsperger: They are going to be up there but they are not going to dominate like the City of old.

Theo Walcott: City are in a rebuild but I still think they will still compete and it will be really tight between them, Liverpool and Arsenal.

Steve Sidwell: This is a transitional period for them. If you drop your levels, you'll drop points with the standard at the top of the league now. I don't see them being champions, but never write Pep off!

Steph Houghton: City's squad is amazing now. They could have two starting XIs that would be unbelievable. They are my pick right now but if Liverpool get Isak then that obviously changes things. We would all like to wait until the end of this transfer window before making these predictions!

Nedum Onuoha: New blood on the pitch and on the sidelines could be what they need to try to reclaim the title from a very strong Liverpool.

Chelsea - 'I'd be shocked if they don't win at least one trophy'

Chelsea celebrate after winning the Fifa Club World Cup, their second trophy last season following the Uefa Conference League

Last season, only 7/30 BBC predictors backed Chelsea to make the top four - this time they figure in all 34 predictions, although 26 of those have them as finishing fourth.

Chris Waddle: They've got a great squad. They bought a lot of players last year and it has taken time for them to get the balance right, but you saw things come together when they won the Club World Cup and I am really expecting them to kick on. They won't walk it, but they are going to create chances and score a lot of goals.

Nedum Onuoha: They'll be part of the title race for longer this season than the last. Under Enzo Maresca they have a clear way to play and players who are constantly improving. They'll be a threat to everyone, which is why they're champions of the world.

Rachel Brown-Finnis: People scoffed and were very cynical about the Club World Cup but winning it has given them some momentum, especially with the young players they have got. They are such a young team and are still learning, so you are going to see more fluctuations in form than with, say, Liverpool, but they will come into the season flying. I'd be shocked if they don't win at least one trophy, and you cannot dismiss them as title contenders.

Ellen White: Chelsea put players on these massively long contracts and there are always lots of ins and outs but they have been developing the team they wanted, especially what Maresca has wanted, over the past couple of seasons.

Troy Deeney: They are strong in every position but their inexperience and late start to pre-season after winning the Club World Cup will come back to haunt them in later rounds.

Lindsay Johnson: A busy summer will maybe impact them over a long season.

Chris Sutton: I wonder how much the Club World Cup will take out of them, mentally as much as physically. You need rest in that way too.

Pat Nevin: They look sharp and the new buys are just fabulous - Estevao Willian has every chance of being the best in the business. In the past, Chelsea have relied on Cole Palmer, but maybe not anymore. They will hit the ground running but there is a wall up ahead that they might run into, which is December and January. If you hear anyone say the phrase 'they have started really well, the summer has not affected them', then shake your head - the problem comes later.

Thomas Hitzlsperger: There is always so much going on with players in and players out, but Joao Pedro could be the player who makes a difference.

Anita Asante: Signings like Joao Pedro, Liam Delap and Jamie Gittens strengthen a squad, blending experience and youth, boosting depth and dynamism. Their recent success has revitalised their ambitions, finances, and status as serious contenders for both domestic and European honours.

Danny Murphy: They will progress and have a good season but they are still a little bit off with that lack of experience defensively, and Levi Colwill's serious injury is a real blow. They are missing that standout centre-half the other three contenders have - a Van Dijk, William Saliba or Ruben Dias, the kind of player who gives calmness and confidence to everyone around them.

Pat Nevin: This is a guess, rather than a prediction but if Chelsea sign a good young centre-back I would change my mind and put them third. They need a solid and steady centre-back pairing and they don't have that while Colwill is out. They only buy young and if you buy centre-backs, you buy mistakes - that's just the way it is. I had two in mind last season and the first was Bournemouth's Dean Huijsen, and they missed him - he went to Real Madrid - and the other Everton's Jarrad Branthwaite. Chelsea need him but I hope they don't get him because of my Everton leanings, it would break my heart!

What about the other 16 teams? - 'It's harder than ever for the chasing pack'

This season's BBC predictions is unusual for having only four teams featuring in everyone's top fours. The last time there was such little variation in their predictions was before the 2015-16 season, when 29/30 pundits went with the same four teams. You may think this signals a closed shop, but remember who went on to win the Premier League that season...

Danny Murphy: If you look at last season's top four and throw Manchester United in the mix with what they have done to try to get up there, I don't remember a pre-season where there has been so much activity by the top clubs.

Alan Shearer: Last season's top four have done so much good business and gone so big in the transfer market, it is going to be extremely difficult for any of the chasing pack to break into those places.

Shay Given: All four have got such strong squads and proven big-game players.

Thomas Hitzlsperger: There are just not going to be many surprises at the top this season.

Joe Hart: As they sit on the start line, I think Liverpool, Arsenal, City and Chelsea will all feel really confident they can do something special. I don't think any other team can have that confidence now. They might build it, like Nottingham Forest did last season, and the momentum might come, but Forest, Villa and Newcastle are not in the same place, and neither is anyone else.

Rachel Brown-Finnis: It's not been the summer Newcastle wanted. To compete in the Premier League and Champions League you need depth and although they have brought some players in, there are still a few holes in their squad. If fifth place gets you in the Champions League again, they have a chance - but not any higher.

Chris Waddle: I had high hopes for Newcastle after last season but they have not really done enough. The squad is still not massive. Top six is still possible, but I cannot see them threatening the top four without Isak.

Thomas Frank replaced Ange Postecoglou as Tottenham manager in June

Rachel Brown-Finnis: This has been a steadier window for Manchester United, which they needed. It's less exciting but they have gone for proven Premier League quality. That will help with the rebuild but there is still a way to go before they are challenging for the top four.

Chris Sutton: I really like what United have done in the transfer window and they don't have European football, which is such a massive advantage for them.

Chris Waddle: It's going to be a massive challenge for Tottenham to get into the top four this season, while playing Champions League football as well.

Danny Murphy: Spurs have got to give Frank time to bed in and find his best XI, and bring in one or two more, I do expect them to be better but I actually think Manchester United might surprise a few people now Amorim has had a full pre-season to implement his ideas. Their problem last season was goalscoring but their new forward line of Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha and Benjamin Sesko could make a huge impact, very quickly.

Wayne Rooney: United improving their attack was something that was very much needed and it is great that they identified the players they wanted early. Getting Sesko is a really important signing for them because as a target man, a number nine, he is quick and he can use both feet and is good in the air. I would still like to see them sign a solid midfield player who is going to help control games for them and help build up play too, but I can see what Amorim is doing and it is looking better for United - I've got them down to finish fifth.

Paul Robinson: People are getting carried away with United's signings but right now they have still got the same midfield, same back four and same goalkeeper and you have to remember how hard they found it last season in the Premier League, with Amorim's system being so rigid. I covered them in the Europa League and their system worked, they didn't get over-run, but in the Premier League they got out-paced, out-powered and run over, against teams that you wouldn't have expected them to lose to.

Ellen White: It's hard to see anyone else get close to the top four. I was pleased to see Nottingham Forest keep Morgan Gibbs-White but Anthony Elanga has left which will affect their attack and it is a big ask for them to get near the top four again. Palace could push up there, but so much depends on them keeping Guehi and Eberechi Eze.

Jermaine Beckford: If Spurs can get Eze and Savinho, then they've got a chance of the top four. They are my pick for fifth anyway though.

Matt Upson: I'd put Spurs at the top of the chasing pack. They have recruited well, their young players had the benefit of playing a lot last season and they have got a top manager in terms of the structure he brings, what he wants and how he goes about it. It is going to be fascinating to see him operate at a club where so many top managers have struggled in recent years.

Thomas Hitzlsperger: Aston Villa are not in the Champions League this time but they are in the Europa League so they are still travelling a lot, and the rhythm of playing twice a week will be the same. It's going to be a tougher season for Villa because of the Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), but I rate Unai Emery so highly and I think they will end up in a similar position to last time.

Steph Houghton: Villa will compete the most with the existing top four. I love the way Emery sets them up - they are such a tough team to play against and he has them working hard, but in a way where it becomes so natural to them.

Paul Robinson: Everton could surprise a few people this year. Not as in making the top four but they could be challenging for the European places. Jack Grealish is a good signing and the type of signing that will open the door for other good players to come in as well. They will see that, and think, 'we'll have a go too'.

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