Aston Villa

This Premier League pursuit becomes a lot easier if you take your chances.

BBC Sport has checked in on some data comparing goals versus expected goals this season.

You can see from the bar graph some teams aren't finding the goals (yellow) to outstrip the expected goals they should score (black).

Tottenham, Manchester City, Arsenal, Brentford, Newcastle, Brighton, Fulham, Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Leicester have all scored more than expected.

Wolves in particular have found the net 32 times from an expected 23.56 - a significant overperformance.

League leaders Liverpool are pretty much bang on in returning what they should, while Arsenal have outperformed, with 43 goals from an expected 37.78.

Bournemouth - 36 goals from an expected 43 - are leaving opportunities on the table.

Aston Villa want to bring in French centre-back Loic Bade, 24, from Sevilla after allowing Brazilian defender Diego Carlos to sign for Fenerbache. (Express and Star), external

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Only Arsenal (14) are on a longer home unbeaten run in the Premier League than Aston Villa (10).

Villa have only had three previous runs of 11 or more unbeaten games at Villa Park, most recently between March and December 2023 when they won 16 out of 17 games.

Highlights after Aston Villa missed the chance to virtually secure a place in the Champions League knockouts with defeat away at Monaco on Tuesday night.

Aston Villa and Newcastle United are set to battle it out for 27-year-old England and AC Milan centre-back Fikayo Tomori. (Football Insider, external)

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Mike Taylor
BBC Radio WM reporter

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Players identified in their mid-teens as an emerging force can spend years orbiting the squads of major clubs, waiting for the opportunity to bloom. That has been the route for Lamare Bogarde.

A quick internet search reminds us his name was in headlines when he was just 16, in Feyenoord's youth system, apparently with a host of Premier League clubs taking note. Five years on, if he is to make a major step forward into regular first-team football, perhaps it will finally come soon.

Aston Villa took him on in 2020, when Dean Smith was in charge, so Bogarde's nine first-team appearances technically span across three Villa bosses. This is slightly skewed by his first, in the callow youth squad Villa were forced to field in an FA Cup tie against Liverpool at the height of the pandemic, when the seniors were in quarantine.

Although Bogarde then disappeared from the public spotlight for a while, we now see evidence Unai Emery has been paying close attention to his development.

For most of 2023 he was loaned to Bristol Rovers, and as his initial Villa contract wound down he approached the moment of decision, for player and club. Instead of moving him on, Villa signed him to a new contract last August, since when he has made a breakthrough of sorts.

The manner of that breakthrough, though limited, suggests Emery has confidence in him.

With Villa short of cover after an early-season injury to Matty Cash, Emery moved Bogarde away from his favoured position to fill the right-back space against Leicester and Everton, rather than use the more experienced Ezri Konsa there. Although the experiment ended at half-time in the first Champions League game in Bern, it still showed faith in Bogarde's ability.

Evidently, he also has the qualities to play in midfield, too, having been called on to replace the injured Amadou Onana in the first half at Arsenal last weekend, and therefore present in Villa's recovery from two down.

That may be his most significant performance so far. Being seen as a dependable, versatile, fill-in player is not a bad role for a youngster at a club with a workload like Villa's, without the squad depth of some of its rivals.

Bogarde turned 21 earlier this month, and perhaps his football coming-of-age is close at hand.

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A win for Aston Villa on Tuesday evening would have put them in the driver's seat to secure a top-eight finish in their first season in the Champions League.

However, defeat at Monaco means they must now win their final fixture next week at home to Celtic and hope that 16 points is enough to seal passage to the knockout stages.

Regardless of the outcome, they are guaranteed at least a place in the play-off round, which begins in February.

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Former Premier League defender Nedum Onuoha believes losing against Monaco "is a bit troubling" as Aston Villa head towards the knockout stage of the Champions League.

"Villa have had a really interesting tournament so far. They beat the likes of Bayern Munich, they travel away to certain places and have looked good as well. They look like they belong there," Onuoha said on BBC Radio 5 Live.

"But then you go to a place like Monaco and don't really give the performance that you want to.

"Losing that game is a bit troubling as you head towards the knockouts.

"Maybe it will be a lesson. I don't think Unai Emery, as somebody who is so experienced, will overreact. Hopefully the players they keep their confidence up as well."

Simon Stone
Chief football news reporter

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Liverpool's victory over Lille last night was fundamentally good for them in that they are through to the last 16 and have secured a top-two seeding.

However, that is also a positive for English clubs as a whole.

The countries who finish top in the European Performance Spots table will get five teams in next season's Champions League.

England are currently top - clear of Italy, Spain and Portugal - and while Aston Villa's defeat did not help, bonus points are applied for every position in the table, with teams in the Champions League getting the most.

So Liverpool are heading for a chunky 12 or 11.75.

There has been so much talk about how well Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have done in the Premier League this season. Their chances of Champions League qualification will increase if English clubs keep doing well in Europe.

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We asked for your thoughts after Tuesday's Champions League game between Monaco and Aston Villa.

Here are some of your comments:

Prit: An opportunity missed for Villa and another lethargic performance. Too many times this season we seem to lose all energy and make mistakes all over the pitch. The subs didn't really work and I would like to see Unai Emery try Lucas Digne at full-back with Ian Maatsen playing ahead of him. On the plus side, we have 13 points and a home game against Celtic. If we can win that we still have a very good chance of making the top eight. Glass still more than half full!

Paul: We were sloppy all over the pitch - they won all the second balls. We kept losing the ball and nothing created up front. Got what we deserved - nothing.

Richard: First half wasn't bad. The second half, particularly after Jhon Duran came on to partner Ollie Watkins, was devoid of any creativity and drive from Villa. Monaco did well to crowd the midfield. Predicting an end-to-end, raucous finale against Celtic full of goals, but will it be enough?

Graeme: I think Villa went to Monaco expecting to win. Arrogance made them come unstuck!

Jonny: Because Villa funnel most of their possession through Youri Tielemans, when he has a bad game, Villa do too. Too many of his passes weren't up to snuff and it meant we couldn't get support through to Watkins. Villa looked tired and too many loose balls again cost us. On the bright side, Emi Buendia looked more like his old self.

Ian: Very disappointing performance from Villa who looked out of sorts and tired. But if you had offered Villa this position at the start of the campaign, then they would have taken it. Encouraging display from Buendia but we did not do enough to win. Perhaps we could have taken a point? Hopefully our additions in the transfer window and having injured players come back will get us back on course for a strong finish to the season. Keep the faith.

Celtic are unlikely to match Aston Villa's asking price for forward Louis Barry, 21, after having a £10m bid rejected. (Football Insider, external)

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Mike Taylor
BBC Radio WM reporter

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Unai Emery smiled for possibly the only time all night when he was asked at the start of the news conference to sum up why his team had lost: "We can be here for two days explaining it. In one minute is difficult."

He then spent several minutes attempting to do so, but essentially his message was that Villa were doing reasonably well until midway through the second half, when he brought on Jhon Duran to join Ollie Watkins.

In Monday night's news conference, Emery had talked up the two-striker option, more than on many previous occasions, as a viable choice. After he introduced Duran for Leon Bailey however, Villa's attacks became less, rather than more, coherent. "It was my mistake," Emery said.

Perhaps more concerning, Emery seemed irritated with the "mentality" shown by some of his players, without naming them. He did name several others who he felt had shown the right mentality - including Emi Buendia, who started for the first time in either the Premier League or Champions League since his serious injury in the summer of 2023.

The greatest irritation after tonight may be the sense of a missed chance.

Emery felt that Villa were controlling the pace of the game for much of the first 70 minutes, but at no stage did it feel as though this was full-throttle Villa. They were often blunt going forward and showing weakness in set-pieces. With Monaco unable to finish some of their best chances and on a mixed run of form themselves, there still could have been a route back to taking points home.

In a way, no great harm was done here, as Emery pointed out - "We are in the next round. And we have to be excited. We are in Champions League, and we have to be motivated. Playing against Celtic with our supporters? Playing in the next round? Wow, fantastic."

And it is. But the missed opportunity here was to bring a top-eight finish clearly within reach and, depending on Wednesday night's results, that chance may have gone.

Villa will still be in the Champions League, and Emery will convince them they have as much of a shot at it as anyone else. But advancing to the last-16 - and taking two games out of their schedule - was a bonus worth winning, and they are no longer in control of that.

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Aston Villa boss Unai Emery: "I think we played 70 minutes like I want. The opponent of course have a gameplan as well. They were good in transition.

"We created three or four good chances to score. Of course if we want to be at this level we have to take the chances we had. But despite that, I was more or less positive.

"The last 20-25 minutes we were playing with two strikers and we were not threatening like the first 70 minutes.

"I was especially happy with Emi Buendia today. He has the option to leave but we needed him. We played fantastic with his qualities, his mentality and his commitment to this squad.

"The last 20 minutes we played with two strikers and with two strikers we are not being organised with the positioning like I want.

"We have two good strikers. Playing with two strikers is my challenge. Both are very good players but today it didn't work well.

"I made a mistake when I decided to play with two strikers. Until that moment, we were more or less controlling the game."

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Aston Villa defender Tyrone Mings: "No excuses. I gave a poor ball away leading to the corner, didn't defend the corner very well. We couldn't get back in the game and couldn't take the chances we had. That is the fine margins of football.

"We were just not good enough.

"We will certainly take the positives that came from the game but we have to be better. We have to try to stay balanced and be the same if we won as when we lose. We need a consistent mood and attitude.

"It wasn't a good night, there's not a person here who feels good about that - the fans have travelled a long way. We will go again.

"In the big moments we came out on the wrong side of them."

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Pundit and former footballer Pat Nevin, speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live: "It was tiredness for me. They did not look like the Aston Villa that I have watched at various points this season.

"There are one or two players who looked fabulous early on this season and last season, like [Morgan] Rogers, like Leon Bailey, but they are looking like a shadow of their former selves now.

"If you are going to go get away wins in the Champions League, you need a little bit more than that.

"I have some sympathy for Villa because they tried everything they could after that goal and they looked really good at one point.

"But that edge and energy that we associate with them when they are at their very best, it just disappeared. As the game went on, it looked less and less likely that they would get back into it.

"A real disappointment for Aston Villa. In the wider sense, the next game, they win the next game against Celtic, they have still got a chance of going through in the top eight.

"It has still been a good campaign for them, even if it wasn't in this moment."

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Aston Villa have now failed to score in three of their past four Uefa Champions League games.

Prior to this, Unai Emery had only seen his side not find the back of the net in two of his previous 35 matches in the competition as a manager.

Gary Rose
BBC Sport journalist

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Aston Villa went into this game knowing they had a big opportunity to put one foot into the Champions League knockouts.

Prior to the game they would have fancied their chances of getting the win given they were in decent form while Monaco had been struggling with one win from their last eight games.

But rarely did Villa look like getting a result in Monaco with their passing not as fluid as it has been recently.

Emiliano Buendia, making his first Champions League start for Villa, played a couple of good through balls that should have been finished off by Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins, but they were two of very few chances the visitors did manage to create.

It is an opportunity missed for Villa but they will still fancy their chances of securing a top eight place as they host Celtic next week in their final game in the league phase of the competition.

Were you at the game or following from elsewhere?

Have your say on Aston Villa's performance

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