Allianz Football League: The permutations as counties reach exciting end game

Tyrone's last League tussle with Armagh 13 months ago was marred by five red cards

It's that time in the GAA calendar when you have to get the grey matter sharpened for round seven of the Allianz Football League.

Quite a few issues have already been decided going into the final weekend of round-robin matches but there are still plenty that will have us scratching our heads as we near the inevitable seven and eight minutes of added time in the assorted venues around the land on Sunday afternoon.

In Division One, Mayo's hugely impressive campaign under new manager Kevin McStay means they are already certain to feature in the final at Croke Park on Sunday week while barring several miracles, Donegal's woeful winter and spring is going to result in them dropping to Division Two for the first time since 2019.

BBC Sport NI cameras will be there to provide live iPlayer and BBC Sport website coverage of the big all-Ulster clash between Tyrone and Armagh in Omagh.

Sparks usually fly when these counties meet - you may recall the five red cards flashed by David Gough in last season's League clash at the Athletic Grounds - and with neither side yet safe from the drop, there will be plenty on the line at Healy Park.

Many journalistic laptop keys have been bashed about Donegal already this week in relation to manager Paddy Carr's departure after only five months in charge.

As Aidan O'Rourke and Paddy Bradley attempt to lift the squad for the trip to Roscommon, the squad's chances of avoiding the drop are about as good as me winning the National Lottery. I don't play the National Lottery.

But if you must see Donegal's survival permutations, they are: winning by 14 points or more at Dr Hyde Park; Monaghan drawing with Mayo in Castlebar and Armagh losing by 15 or more against Tyrone in Omagh.

• Allianz Football League results and fixtures

Sunday's other game in Division One is a repeat of last year's All-Ireland decider, with Galway needing to avoid defeat in to be certain of securing a final meeting with their biggest rivals Mayo.

McStay may opt to ring the Mayo changes for the Castlebar contest with the Farney men, and indeed his team's performances have earned him that right, but it would be far from accurate to describe the game as a dead rubber with Monaghan hoping against hope that they might be able to perform another escape act after last year's Clones heroics against Dublin.

A Monaghan win will move them to six points, with Kerry, Roscommon and Tyrone on six, heading into Sunday's games.

Monaghan players celebrate after last year's remarkable League escape act against Dublin. Could they do it again in Mayo although they will also need other results to go their way?

But Monaghan's most obvious escape route is that their Castlebar win comes alongside a Tyrone victory over Armagh, which would see the Orchard men falling through the trap door into Division Two along with Donegal after looking unlikely relegation candidates for nearly all of the campaign.

Victories for Monaghan and Armagh would not necessarily relegate the Farney men but their current points difference of -16 makes it a long shot that they will avoid the drop, if Armagh win at Healy Park.

By contrast, Tyrone and Roscommon both have a points difference of +1, with Kerry's +4.

Another permutation which will see Monaghan relegated even should they win in Mayo, is if Armagh, Roscommon and Kerry all win, which would put the Farney men and Tyrone on six points, but with Vinny Corey's side making the drop on the head-to-head following their home defeat by the Red Hands last weekend.

Like, Kerry and Roscommon, Tyrone go into round seven not absolutely safe from relegation despite their recent wins over Kerry and Monaghan but also still in with a chance of reaching the Division One final if they were to earn a big win over Armagh and the Kingdom and Rossies have smaller victory margins over Galway and Donegal.

Galway's current points difference of +10 is six ahead of third-placed Kerry and nine better than both Roscommon and Tyrone.

Division Two

Division Two is a lot less complicated with Derry already guaranteed promotion and surely likely to rest a few regulars for their contest against Cork, whose own hopes of going up were ended by last weekend's defeat by Louth.

But mention of Mickey Harte's side and they are going to be involved in arguably the game of the day as they face Dublin at Croke Park knowing that victory will see them clinch the promotion - denying the Dubs in the process, which would be something truly extraordinary.

Considering the Wee County have been without star forward Sam Mulroy for the entire campaign and latterly Ciaran Byrne, it's been a remarkable effort and further testament to the legendary Harte's managerial ability.

At the bottom of Division Two, matters are done and dusted with Clare and Limerick already relegated following their defeats by Derry and Kildare last weekend.

Fermanagh will be guarantee promotion to Division Two if they avoid defeat against their already-promoted neighbours Cavan

Division Three

Most of the Division Three business has also already been concluded with Cavan guaranteed promotion despite their surprise defeat by Antrim last weekend and Longford and Tipperary certain to drop to Division Four.

However, the second promotion spot is very much still up for grabs between Fermanagh and Offaly.

The Ernemen will be guaranteed Division Two Football next year if they avoid defeat at Kingspan Breffni.

However, Fermanagh will miss out if they lose in Cavan and Offaly, whose manager Liam Kearns died suddenly on 12 March, beat Down at Tullamore. In that scenario, Offaly's 1-9 to 1-8 victory over Kieran Donnelly's side in round two would see the Faithful County pip the Ernemen for promotion.

To complicate matters further, Fermanagh will be promoted even if they lose and Down win at O'Connor Park, which would put the Erne and Mourne sides on 10 points, but with the former ascending to Division Two under the head-to-head having edged out Down by a point in round three.

It will be very interesting to see how Cavan approach the contest with the neighbours. Will they operate at full tilt after a very lethargic display against Antrim or feel the primary task has already been achieved and instead turn focus towards their championship opener in four weeks against either Armagh or Antrim.

The Saffrons, meanwhile, end their campaign against Longford at Pearse Park on Saturday and while it has all the appearances of a dead rubber, Andy McEntee will surely be demanding that his players continue the promise they exhibited last week.

Division Four

The Division Four promotion picture is the tightest of the lot and while there is no Ulster county in the bottom tier, there is still northern interest given that former Armagh star and BBC GAA pundit Oisin McConville's Wicklow team are very much in the mix going into Sunday.

Sligo lead the table on 10 points, with Leitrim, Laois and Wicklow all two points off the pace.

A Sligo victory over Leitrim in Carrick-on-Shannon will mean that McConville's side are guaranteed promotion if they defeat second-from-bottom Waterford in Dungarvan.

However, a Leitrim home win will almost certainly see the two promotion places decided on points difference, which could be to Laois' benefit given that they face London.

Sligo currently have a points difference of +26, with Leitrim on +29, Laois on +24, and Wicklow, given their +6 tally, most likely needing a whopping win in Waterford if the Yeats County lose the all-Connacht clash.