All-Ireland Football Championship: Permutations aplenty for final weekend of Super 16s

Rian O'Neill starred in Armagh's thrilling All-Ireland quarter-final against Galway last year but is set to miss Sunday's contest with the Tribesmen after his sending-off against Tyrone

The All-Ireland Football round-robin stage reaches its finale this weekend with Clare the only one of the 16 teams who cannot progress to the knockout stages.

Croke Park will doubtless feel that the myriad permutations still possible is vindication itself for this year's new championship format.

And while the Banner County cannot themselves progress to even a preliminary All-Ireland quarter-final, their Group Four contest with Derry in Longford on Saturday evening is by no means a dead rubber with the Oak Leafers needing to better the margin of a potential Monaghan victory over Donegal in Omagh to earn direct passage to the last eight.

In fact, the winners of all four Super 16s groups have still to decided, with, in truth, no side to date having marked themselves out as obvious favourites to lift Sam on 30 July.

Arguably the best indicator of the potential excitement or shocks, depending on your point of view, that could be in store for us this weekend is the possibility that All-Ireland champions Kerry could be out come Sunday evening if they lose against Mickey Harte's Louth.

Highly unlikely you may say, but bear in mind that Louth, after losing a tight opener against Cork, nearly shocked Group One leaders Mayo two weeks ago as David Clifford and company laboured to a two-point win over the Rebels.

There is much to ponder going into this weekend.

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Group One

The potential of Kerry making a shock early exit is the obvious talking point in Group One but the Kingdom also go into the final weekend of round-robin games with the diametrically opposed scenario of them topping the table come Sunday night still a possibility if they earn a big win over the Wee County and Cork clinch a narrower success over Mayo in Limerick.

Mayo have a scoring difference of +6 but with the Kingdom on -3 and Cork on zero, Kevin McStay's side are far from secure at the top.

Kerry could still squeeze into the preliminary quarter-finals even after defeat against Louth if Mayo defeat Cork, but again that would come down to scoring difference, with the Kingdom, Rebels and Wee County all on two points in that scenario.

Louth's scoring difference is -3 which further demonstrates that they are far from out of it going into this weekend.

Group Two

Group Two is no less tight, with Tyrone in a similar position to Kerry as they prepare for Sunday's contest with a thus far pointless Westmeath at Kingspan Breffni.

If the Red Hands were to lose and Armagh were to beat or even draw against table toppers Galway in Carrick-on-Shannon, 2021 Sam Maguire Cup winners Tyrone would suffer a second successive early championship exit, with Westmeath pipping them on the head-to-head.

In addition, Westmeath and Galway victories this weekend would leave Tyrone, Armagh and the Lake County all on two points, with score difference required to decide the second and third places in Group Two. Tyrone and Armagh's current score difference is -1 with Westmeath on -9.

Granted, Tyrone will go into the Cavan contest as favourites but Westmeath are a very useful outfit as they showed against Armagh at the Athletic Grounds last month when it took a late Conor Turbitt goal for Armagh to snatch a decidedly fortunate victory.

A week later, Westmeath were competitive for most of the game against Galway before eventually succumbing 0-20 to 0-12 on the same day Tyrone struggled to edge past 14-man Armagh at Omagh.

Armagh's game against Galway will inevitably bring back memories of last summer's thrilling All-Ireland quarter-final at Croke Park when the Tribesmen eventually clinched victory in a dramatic penalty shootout.

However, Armagh look set to go into the Leitrim contest minus star forward Rian O'Neill following his straight red card at Healy Park.

An Armagh victory in Carrick-on-Shannon and Tyrone success at Kingspan Breffni would leave current leaders Galway, the Red Hands and Armagh all on four points.

Tyrone and Armagh would require 12-point scoring difference turnarounds to overhaul the Tribesmen in that scenario, but stranger things have happened.

Group Three

On the face of it, leaders Roscommon and Dublin look to be involved in a battle for top spot in Group Two on Saturday afternoon, with the Rossies ahead of Dessie Farrell's side by the smallest possible scoring difference as they prepare to face Kildare in Tullamore when the Dubs tackle Sligo at Kingspan Breffni.

But mathematically all four teams can top the table although realistically the vastly superior scoring differences of Roscommon and Dublin, who drew in round one, means that one of the two Division One teams will still almost certainly clinch a quarter-finals spot, even if Sligo and Kildare earn shock wins to join them on three points.

Roscommon go into the weekend with a scoring difference of +10, with the Dubs on +9, Kildare on -9 and Sligo on -10.

However, realistically the prospects of Dublin losing against Tony McEntee's side appear remote.

The Rossies being pushed down to third place in the table - and having to play in the preliminary quarter-finals next weekend - by losing to Kildare is more conceivable but on the basis of the two teams' performances this season, also unlikely to happen.

Group Four

As mentioned, Group Four is a little less complicated with Clare definitely out of contention even if they manage to shock Ulster champions Derry in Longford on Saturday evening as Monaghan play Donegal in Omagh.

However, Derry, Monaghan and Donegal can all still clinch top spot although the Tir Conaill men would need a Clare victory in Longford as well as their own win over Vinny Corey's side to snatch a direct route to the quarter-finals.

But after labouring somewhat in both the Ulster Final and drawn Group Four opener against Monaghan, Derry looked back to something like their best against Donegal in Ballybofey and should be good enough to repeat their All-Ireland quarter-final win over the Banner County from last summer.

Derry and Monaghan wins will result in top spot being decided between the two of them on scoring difference, with both on +5 going into this weekend, although the Farney men currently edge top spot on points scored.

Shane McGuigan helped Derry dismantle Clare in last year's All-Ireland quarter-final and the Oak Leafers will expected to beat the Banner County again in Longford on Saturday

A Donegal win at Healy Park and Derry draw against Clare would see Aidan O'Rourke's side and the Oak Leafers both moving to four points, but with the latter winning the group on the head-to-head by dint of the result in Ballybofey.

Donegal go into the final series of round-robin games safe in the knowledge they are guaranteed at least a preliminary quarter-final berth on the head-to-head rule with Clare even if the Tir Conaill men lose in Omagh and the Banner men shock Derry in Longford.

The seemingly never-ending permutations also include both concluding Group Four games ended in draws which would leave Monaghan and Derry on four points at the top and the Oak Leafers needing to notch six more points than the Farney men on Saturday to grab top spot.

So much to mull over as we approach the final weekend of Super 16s action.