Enable: Can Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe treble at Longchamp be stopped?

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Date: Sunday, 6 October Time: 15:05 BST Venue: ParisLongchamp BBC coverage: Commentary on BBC Radio 5 live

It's Flat racing's Arc weekend - 12 horses, the smallest field in 12 years, are due to be chasing Europe's grandest prize at ParisLongchamp racetrack in the Bois de Boulogne on Sunday.

Though two-time winner Enable is hogging the build-up headlines as she and Frankie Dettori seek an historic treble in the mile-and-a-half-long feature, the opposition ain't half bad.

I'm at a 25th staging of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe for the BBC on Sunday (15:05 BST), and will attempt to mark your card…

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Enable has won her last 12 races - 10 of them at the top Group One level

We've got to start with Enable

John Gosden, trainer of the brilliant five-year-old mare, believes that in 2019 Enable has become the "fully matured athlete", though she will "have to be right on the top of her game" to win an unprecedented third Arc, and a seventh, breaking his own record, for Dettori.

While encouraged that there is no "wonderful" three-year-old filly - which would carry much less weight than the rest, taking advantage of both flat racing's sex and youth allowances - he fears "two top-class three-year-old colts in Sottsass and Japan", the "magnificent" Ghaiyyath and the "under-estimated" Waldgeist.

That said, he's very happy with the smoothness of preparation for Enable in what's expected to be her 15th and final race (she's won 13), though no formal decision has been made by breeder-owner Khalid Abdullah.

Ah yes, Ghaiyyath…

Ghaiyyath, part of Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin operation of horses, and trained at Newmarket by Charlie Appleby, staked his big-race claim with a breathtaking success at Baden-Baden in Germany in September.

The colt, a four-year-old son of the Sheikh's flagship stallion Dubawi, was eased down by his jockey William Buick to thrash perfectly respectable opponents. A repeat performance might ruin Enable's party.

Buick, ironically once number one jockey to Gosden, is back on board, and victory would be the fairytale twist in a dramatic year for him.

A serious head injury incurred in a mid-season fall at Ascot ruled him out of action for over two months, causing one or two tongues to wag about his future in the saddle, but he's returned with a bang - a first Arc success would cap a fairly remarkable turnaround.

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The stage is set at Longchamp where around a third of the expected 45,000 crowd are expected to be from Britain or Ireland

So, what about some of the others…

The Arc trophy and the Euros and near century-old prestige that go with it have not remained in France since 2014 when another formidable mare Treve completed the big-race double.

However, hopes seem to be high for Sottsass, winner of the Prix du Jockey Club, the race seen as France's version of the Derby - though it's staged over a quarter-mile less than the traditional one-and-a-half-mile Derby distance, at Chantilly.

Sottsass, trained by Jean-Claude Rouget and the mount of jockey Cristian Demuro, displayed admirable acceleration when following up in the Prix Niel in September.

Ryan Moore rides Japan, one of just two Aidan O'Brien-trained/Coolmore-owned representatives in the field; the trainer's jockey- on Donnacha is on the other, the filly Magical, a serious talent, as demonstrated in the Irish Champion Stakes, but in three encounters against Enable, she's 3-nil down.

The highly rated Japan arrives at ParisLongchamp apparently at the top of his game after Group One-level victories at the track in the Grand Prix de Paris and in the International Stakes at York.

O'Brien has been successful in the race twice; in contrast, Andre Fabre looks for an eighth win with Waldgeist - conqueror of Ghaiyyath in April - though the horse, a well-travelled five-year-old, has also been beaten by Enable three times.

That's Japan the horse… what about Japan the country?

It's not possible to overstate how much the burgeoning horse racing industry in Japan would simply love to win Europe's top prize, not least because it's come so close without success.

The responsibility of trying to consign to history those unhappy memories of near-misses - notably second places achieved by El Condor Pasa in 1999 and Orfevre in 2012 and 2013 - lie with Fierement and Blast Onepiece.

They are rated outsiders but that won't stop passionate support, on the track and back at home in Japan.

Arc - approximate odds

4-6 Enable, 6-1 Japan, 7-1 Sottsass, 10-1 Ghaiyyath, 12-1 Magical, 14-1 Waldgeist

33-1 Fierement, 40-1 Blast Onepiece, 50-1 French King, 66-1 Nagano Gold, 80-1 Kiseki, 100-1 Soft Light

Final thought…

Enable's first Arc success was achieved at Chantilly while Longchamp was closed for a two-year, 130m euro refurbishment, plus a rebrand to ParisLongchamp.

When returning to its spiritual home in 2018, to say it came back to mixed reviews from the crowds, a significant proportion of which are traditionally people from the UK and Ireland making a weekend of it, would not be correct.

Reports came through of food and drink running out early, and long queues for the betting booths and loos. As a result, despite a quality two-day programme, which includes eight races at Group One level, there's been much debate in some quarters about attending in 2019, Enable or no Enable.

However, French racing officials say there will be more of every facility this time, and they insist the experience will be much improved.

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