Isle of Man TT: What did record-breaking qualifying tell us about likely race winners?
- Published
Peter Hickman, Michael Dunlop and Dean Harrison are expected to be the main contenders for victories during Isle of Man TT race week
Perfect weather conditions have made for some scintillating high-speed Isle of Man TT practice action, but with the onset of race week it is just about time for the 'shadow boxing' to stop.
The revamped schedule for 2023 means the Supersports will be first to take to the grid on Saturday, followed by the first outing for the sidecars.
If qualifying times are anything to go by, three familiar names are set to contend for solo race victories over the formidable 37.73-mile Mountain Course over the coming days.
Michael Dunlop, the 21-time race winner, has made his intentions clear, sensationally dipping under the absolute course record on the final afternoon of a sun-soaked five days' practice on Friday.
His speed of 135.531mph, and time of 16 minutes 42.189 seconds, remains unofficial as it was set in practice rather than racing, but still sent shockwaves through the paddock.
Nine-time winner Hickman, who still holds the official benchmark of 135.452 from the 2018 Senior event, was only marginally behind at 134.91, with Dean Harrison next on 134.216.
Those three certainly have the air of the 'men most likely', having dominated the top leaderboard positions consistently throughout the week.
Northern Ireland rider Dunlop has had the demeanour of a man on a mission, a rider with a point to prove, having quickly adjusted to the Honda Fireblade put at his disposal this year by the Hawk Racing team.
That partnership of team and rider has yielded five 'big bike wins' to date. Dunlop and the team run by father-and-son Stuart and Steve Hicken, having racked up Superbike and Senior doubles on BMWs in 2014 and 2016, plus a triumph in the blue riband Senior on a Suzuki in 2017.
The fact Dunlop was able to finalise a deal in good time to clock up some miles on British Superbike circuits, and at the North West 200, appears to have worked in his favour and boosted his chances of a first Superbike win since 2018.
Dean Harrison will hope to add to his three TT wins and 20 podium finishes in TT race week
For their part, Hickman and Harrison have benefitted from operating in familiar environments and on accustomed machines in the form of FHO Racing BMW and DAO Racing Kawasaki respectively.
Course lap record holder Hickman became the first ever rider to top the 200mph benchmark on the 'speed trap' section on Sulby Straight during the week.
With further fine weather forecast for Sunday's Superbike outing, there should be plenty of grippy rubber down on the track, conditions which could be conducive to official lap record speeds.
The existing benchmark for the Superbike race stands to Harrison from five years ago on 134.432.
Any challenge to the hegemony established by the leading trio was expected to come from Milenco by Padgetts' Honda riders Davey Todd and Conor Cummins.
Both are chasing maiden TT wins and have been tucked in behind their rivals in the practice timings.
Five of Cummins' 12 podium finishes to date have come in the last six 'big bike' races but the 37-year-old's efforts during qualifying week have been hampered by an infection, missing a number of sessions and finally being admitted to hospital.
That bout of ill health will see him sit out the race action until Tuesday at the earliest, ruling him out of the Supersport curtain-raiser and the six-lap Superbike.
Honda Racing's John McGuinness, double British Superbike champion Josh Brookes, Jamie Coward, OMG Yamaha pilot James Hillier, Bathams Racing's Michael Rutter and Burrows Engineering/RK Racing competitor Mike Browne are among the likely contenders for top-six berths.
Browne unofficially became the fastest ever Republic of Ireland rider around the Mountain Course when he lapped at 129.664 on Friday afternoon.
Superstocks, Supersports and Supertwins
The same leading three protagonists are likely to battle it out for the honours in the Superstock and Supersport classes, with Hickman perhaps starting as favourite in the 'Stocker class on the back of three consecutive wins in the class.
Dunlop is Yamaha-mounted for the Supersports and will be fancied to add to his record nine wins in that category after topping the practice timesheets on 127.557.
The Ballymoney man laid down a marker right from the offset in the Supertwins by unofficially breaking the lap record on his opening lap of practice week from a standing start, then bettering that in similar circumstances on Friday at 123.474 to install him as firm favourite for that class.
Given the form he has shown in practice, Dunlop will target the record five wins in a week achieved by Ian Hutchinson in 2010.
If he could equal that tally it would bring him level with his uncle, the late, great Joey Dunlop on a record 26 successes.
Sidecar pairing Ben and Tom Birchall set a new unofficial lap record in coming in quickest in the 'three-wheel' class, their speed 119.414.
The brothers have won the last nine races involving the 'three-wheelers' and taken 12 victories in total.
Final qualifying leaderboard
Superbikes - 1 Michael Dunlop (Honda) 135.531mph; 2 Peter Hickman (BMW) 134.91; 3 Dean Harrison (Kawasaki) 134.216; 4 Davey Todd (Honda) 132.194; 5 Josh Brookes (BMW) 131.098; 6 John McGuinness (Honda) 131.003
Superstocks - 1 Peter Hickman (BMW) 133.284mph; 2 Michael Dunlop (Honda) 132.728; 3 Dean Harrison (Kawasaki) 132.70mph
Supersports - 1 Michael Dunlop (Yamaha) 127.557; 2 Dean Harrison (Yamaha) 127.216; 3 Peter Hickman (Triumph) 127.206
Supertwins - 1 Michael Dunlop (Paton) 123.474mph; 2 Jamie Coward (Kawasaki) 121.08; 3 Mike Browne (Paton) 119.787
Sidecars - 1 Ben and Tom Birchall (Honda) 119. 414 mph; 2 Pete Founds/Jevan Walmsley (Honda)117.807; 3 Ryan Crowe/Callum Crowe (Honda) 116.452
Race schedule
Saturday 3 June - 11:45 BST - Supersport race one (4 laps)
14:15 - Sidecar race one (3 laps)
Sunday 4 June - 14:40 - Superbike TT (6 laps)
Tuesday 6 June - 11:45 - Superstock TT race one (3 laps)
14:00 - Supertwins race one (3 laps)
Wednesday 7 June - 11:45 - Supersport race two (4 laps)
14:15 - Sidecar race two (3 laps)
Friday 9 June - 11:45 - Superstock race two (3 laps)
14:00 - Supertwin race two (3 laps)
Saturday 10 June - 12:15 - Senior TT (6 laps)